Back to basics: Data revisions

With few exceptions, most economic data undergo revisions. Although frequently neglected, data revisions may have implications, not only for economic analysis, but also for policy decisions, as revisions may alter current assessment and forecasts of economic developments. In this paper, we reassess data revisions analysis and its impact on forecasting, presenting an encompassing and unified perspective on this subject. For this purpose, we built a real-time database for Portuguese exports and imports of goods. We present a broad set of the measures typically used to gauge revisions and add to this discussion by clarifying the relations between revisions to deferent types of series (for example, revisions to month-on-month and year-on-year rates of change). Furthermore, regarding the (un)predictability of revisions, we suggest an alternative testing approach. The key feature of this approach is that it takes into account both in-sample and out-of-sample performances. We also discuss the impact of revisions on forecasting, focusing on short-term forecasting of first releases. Even though not accounting for data revision implications can lead to suboptimal results, our findings reinforce the need for a case by case analysis.

What is behind the recent evolution of Portuguese terms of trade?

This paper analyses the evolution of Portuguese terms of trade over the last decades. Firstly, their evolution is described: (i) terms of trade registered an upward trend since the second half of the 80s, after the apparent stability observed since 1950; (ii) this was a generalized phenomenon across OECD countries; (iii) and it was specially linked to a very contained evolution of import prices. Secondly, terms of trade are broken down by groups of products, and their evolution is decomposed into two components. The first component results from differences in the composition of import and export baskets of goods (inter-sector specialization), while the second emerges from deviations from the law of one price in each sector (intra-sector segmentation). The results show that terms of trade developments were dominated by the specialization effects related to the evolution of oil prices. Excluding energy and focusing in the manufactured goods, the increase in terms of trade is strongly connected with the positive evolution of relative prices inside each sector, in particular in the usually designated traditional sectors: textiles, clothing and footwear. The effects of globalization on import prices and the structural changes in those manufacturing sectors in Portugal are pointed out as explanations for this phenomenon.

The effects of low-cost countries on Portuguese manufacturing import prices

This paper estimates the direct effect of low-cost countries on Portuguese manufacturing import prices, using detailed data both by product and by geographical market for the period 1997-2006. The results point to a negative but modest direct effect when compared with studies available for other countries. This is understandable given the lower share of low-cost countries in Portuguese imports. However, besides this direct effect, import prices were influenced by several other factors, some also related to the increasing presence of low-cost countries in international markets. Overall, this lower direct effect was not reflected in a differentiated evolution of manufacturing import prices in Portugal as its evolution was very close to the average of the euro area countries

Ação anti-tumoral de complexos organometálicos de ouro (I)

Relatório de projeto no âmbito do Programa de Bolsas Universidade de Lisboa/Fundação Amadeu Dias (2011/2012). Universidade de Lisboa. Faculdade de Ciência

Household wealth in Portugal: 1980-2004

The main objective of this paper is to estimate and analyse a relatively long and homogeneous time series (from 1980 onward) on the wealth of households in Portugal. Wealth components covered are financial wealth (financial assets and liabilities) and the housing component of non-financial wealth. We then analyse the results, in terms of developments over the twenty five years under review. For a more recent period, some international comparisons are made, focusing on trends and changes in composition of wealth.

Extreme reactions to deviance: The impact of crisis contexts and deviant's role

Numa crise económica, os grupos estão preocupados em gerir as consequências desta. Dada esta preocupação, é plausível que os membros do grupo se tornem mais reativos e intransigentes face a ameaças internas (p.e., desvio). Propomos que, perante uma crise económica, os membros de grupos desenvolvem um sentimento de privação relativa que, perante uma ameaça interna, prediz atitudes mais extremas, negativas e exclusivas, traduzindo-se num maior acordo com medidas punitivas, principalmente, face a um líder (versus membro regular) desviante. Realizámos um estudo experimental (N = 156) que manipulou a saliência da crise (saliência da crise económica vs. controlo) e o papel do desviante no grupo nacional (líder: diretor vs. membro regular: trabalhador de uma empresa). Os participantes indicaram o sentimento de privação relativa, a sua perceção da ameaça ao endogrupo causada pelo desvio, avaliação do desviante, e o seu acordo com reações ao desvio (tolerância, ressocialização, punição leve e severa e recategorização). Os resultados mostram que, perante a saliência de uma crise económica, os indivíduos tornam-se mais intolerantes, menos recetivos a ressocializarem os desviantes e defendem mais uma recategorização dos desviantes noutro grupo. Adicionalmente, perante crises, a privação relativa percecionada exacerbou a motivação para recategorização dos desviantes, principalmente face a líderes, e consequentemente predisse a concordância com a aplicação de ações de punição especialmente severas. Assim, este estudo demonstra que situações de crise impulsionam uma reconfiguração interna do grupo que visa a exclusão psicológica dos desviantes da sua categoria (principalmente líderes) que parece instigar o acordo com ações punitivas severas.During an economic crisis, groups are concerned with managing the consequences of the crisis. Given this concern, the group becomes more reactive and intransigent towards internal threats (e.g., deviance). We propose that, in an economic crisis, the group's members develop a sense of relative deprivation. As such, facing the emergence of an internal threat promotes more extreme, negative, and exclusive attitudes that translate into a higher agreement with punitive measures, especially towards deviants with leadership roles. Therefore, we conducted an experiment (N = 156) that manipulated the salience of the crisis (salience of the economic breakdown vs. control) and the deviant's role in the national group (leader: director; regular member: regular worker in a public organization). Participants stated their feelings of relative deprivation, perceived threat to the ingroup triggered by the deviant, deviant's evaluation, and agreement with reactions to deviance (tolerance, resocialization, soft and severe punishment and recategorization). The results show that when an economic crisis is salient, individuals become more intolerant, less receptive to resocializing deviants, and defend more strongly the recategorization of the deviants in another group. Furthermore, in the face of crises, perceived relative deprivation exacerbated the need to recategorize the deviants in another group, especially leaders. Consequently, this predicted the agreement with the application of punishment actions, especially severe ones. Finally, this research demonstrates that crises drive an internal reconfiguration of the group aimed at psychologically excluding the deviants of its category (mainly leaders), seemingly eliciting agreement with more severe punitive actions