Extending backcalculation to analyse BSE data.

We review the origins of backcalculation (or back projection) methods developed for the analysis of AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) incidence data. These techniques have been used extensively for >15 years to deconvolute clinical case incidence, given knowledge of the incubation period distribution, to obtain estimates of past HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) infection incidence and short-term predictions of future AIDS incidence. Adaptations required for the analysis of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) incidence included: stratification of BSE incidence by age as well as birth cohort; allowance for incomplete survival between infection and the onset of clinical signs of disease; and decomposition of the age- and time-related infection incidence into a time-dependent feed risk component and an age-dependent exposure/susceptibility function. The most recent methodological developments focus on the incorporation of data from clinically unaffected cattle screened using recently developed tests for preclinical BSE infection. Backcalculation-based predictions of future BSE incidence obtained since 1996 are examined. Finally, future directions of epidemiological analysis of BSE epidemics are discussed taking into account ongoing developments in the science of BSE and possible changes in BSE-related policies

A Critical Exploration of the Rhetoric of Equity Belied by Practice in Postgraduate Teacher Education

This paper presents the initial results of an investigation into the current awareness and perceptions of equity issues amongst academic staff working on a postgraduate learning and teaching course for teachers in tertiary education in the Republic of Ireland. The study is set in the contemporary landscape of discourses around equality, egalitarianism and equity in education generall

Optimality of maximal-effort vaccination

It is widely acknowledged that vaccinating at maximal effort in the face of an ongoing epidemic is the best strategy to minimise infections and deaths from the disease. Despite this, no one has proved that this is guaranteed to be true if the disease follows multi-group SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) dynamics. This paper provides a novel proof of this principle for the existing SIR framework, showing that the total number of deaths or infections from an epidemic is decreasing in vaccination effort. Furthermore, it presents a novel model for vaccination which assumes that vaccines assigned to a subgroup are distributed randomly to the unvaccinated population of that subgroup. It suggests, using COVID-19 data, that this more accurately captures vaccination dynamics than the model commonly found in the literature. However, as the novel model provides a strictly larger set of possible vaccination policies, the results presented in this paper hold for both models

A review of epidemiological parameters from Ebola outbreaks to inform early public health decision-making.

The unprecedented scale of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa has, as of 29 April 2015, resulted in more than 10,884 deaths among 26,277 cases. Prior to the ongoing outbreak, Ebola virus disease (EVD) caused relatively small outbreaks (maximum outbreak size 425 in Gulu, Uganda) in isolated populations in central Africa. Here, we have compiled a comprehensive database of estimates of epidemiological parameters based on data from past outbreaks, including the incubation period distribution, case fatality rate, basic reproduction number (R 0), effective reproduction number (R t) and delay distributions. We have compared these to parameter estimates from the ongoing outbreak in West Africa. The ongoing outbreak, because of its size, provides a unique opportunity to better understand transmission patterns of EVD. We have not performed a meta-analysis of the data, but rather summarize the estimates by virus from comprehensive investigations of EVD and Marburg outbreaks over the past 40 years. These estimates can be used to parameterize transmission models to improve understanding of initial spread of EVD outbreaks and to inform surveillance and control guidelines

Ireland’s Higher Education Teachers Have a National Professional Development Framework, Now What?

Momentum has been building for professional development (PD) for all staff who teach in Irish higher education - they now have the national Professional Development Framework (PDF) to support them in planning and engaging with authentic, inclusive, scholarly, learner-centred and collaborative PD across their career. In mid-2016, the PD Framework was published by the National Forum for the Enhancement of Teaching and Learning. In 2017, the PDF was piloted with 215 individuals from 22 professional identity groups from across the sector, working with the framework to reflect on their professional practice and set goals for their future professional development. This initial implementation phase has now been fully evaluated and a robust evidence-base of ‘what works, and why’ in relation to staff engagement with the PDF is in place. Disseminating findings and continuing to engage with the sector through relevant platforms such as HEIT is key to advancing this work. Early 2018 witnessed the HEA publishing the HE System Performance Framework 2018-2020 with two recommendations which are key to the momentum of the PDF: Implementation of the Continuous Professional Development Framework Number of staff with “Digital Badges” for completed CPD by academic year Given these significant developments over a relatively short period, we are now asking the sector, what needs to happen next for the PDF to continue to drive progress for individual’s careers and support them in dealing with change and transformation in their professional practice

Eportfolio Based Assessment Case Study

The ePortfolio module is an essential component of the MSc Applied eLearning. This is a two-year part-time accredited professional development programme aimed at a wide range of academic and professional staff: lecturers, teachers, tutors, eLearning specialists, researchers, consultants, trainers in commercial enterprises, policy makers, librarians, learning and technological support staff and managers. The MSc is designed to support these participants in growing the confidence and skills to develop, facilitate and manage eLearning in different contexts and with diverse, authentic pedagogical approaches. It is anticipated that on successful completion of this programme, participants who are endeavouring to establish eLearning opportunities in their organisation are fully supported, as well as those who are considering blending this with a career in an educational setting, in teaching, training or educational management. The strengths of the programme lie in the sound pedagogy and research underpinning all modules, the substantial applied project, the diverse range of optional modules and the development of skills that are all captured in an ePortfolio to enable participants to be responsive to the changing emergent technologies in the future

Localised Badger Culling Increases Risk of Herd Breakdown on Nearby, Not Focal, Land

Bovine tuberculosis is an important disease affecting the UK livestock industry. Controlling bovine tuberculosis (TB) is made more complex by the presence of a wildlife host, the Eurasian badger, Meles meles. Repeated large-scale badger culls implemented in the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) were associated with decreased cattle risks inside the culling area, but also with increased cattle risks up to the 2km outside the culling area. Intermediate reductions in badger density, as achieved by localised reactive culling in the RBCT, significantly increased cattle TB. Using a matched-pairs case-control study design (n = 221 pairs of cattle herds), we investigated the spatial scale over which localised badger culling had its biggest impact. We found that reactive badger culling had a significant positive association with the risk of cattle TB at distances of 1-3km and 3-5km, and that no such association existed over shorter distances (<1km). These findings indicate that localised badger culls had significant negative effects, not on the land on which culling took place, but, perhaps more importantly, on adjoining lands and farms

High affinity binding of the peptide agonist TIP-39 to the parathyroid hormone 2 (PTH₂) receptor requires the hydroxyl group of Tyr-318 on transmembrane helix 5

TIP39 (“tuberoinfundibular peptide of 39 residues”) acts via the parathyroid hormone 2 receptor, PTH₂, a Family B G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR). Despite the importance of GPCRs in human physiology and pharmacotherapy, little is known about the molecular details of the TIP39-PTH₂ interaction. To address this, we utilised the different pharmacological profiles of TIP39 and PTH(1-34) at PTH₂ and its related receptor PTH₁: TIP39 being an agonist at the former but an antagonist at the latter, while PTH(1-34) activates both. A total of 23 site-directed mutations of PTH₂, in which residues were substituted to the equivalent in PTH₁, were made and pharmacologically screened for agonist activity. Follow-up mutations were analysed by radioligand binding and cAMP assays. A model of the TIP39-PTH₂ complex was built and analysed using molecular dynamics. Only Tyr318-Ile displayed reduced TIP39 potency, despite having increased PTH(1-34) potency, and further mutagenesis and analysis at this site demonstrated that this was due to reduced TIP39 affinity at Tyr318-Ile (pIC50 = 6.01±0.03) compared with wild type (pIC₅₀ = 7.81±0.03). The hydroxyl group of the Tyr-318’s side chain was shown to be important for TIP39 binding, with the Tyr318-Phe mutant displaying 13-fold lower affinity and 35-fold lower potency compared with wild type. TIP39 truncated by up to 5 residues at the N-terminus was still sensitive to the mutations at Tyr-318, suggesting that it interacts with a region within TIP39(6-39). Molecular modelling and molecular dynamics simulations suggest that the selectivity is based on an interaction between the Tyr-318 hydroxyl group with the carboxylate side chain of Asp-7 of the peptide

Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease.

During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naïve estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital