13,374 research outputs found

    Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia

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    Using information contained in a nationally representative, longitudinal survey of Russian citizens, this research analyzes the determinants of unemployment duration during the early stages of economic transition. A competing-risks, discrete-time waiting model, augmented to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity, is employed to analyze whether there is evidence of duration dependence in unemployment, and the role of demographic characteristics, alternative income support, and local demand conditions in explaining unemployment duration for working-age individuals. Married women are found to experience significantly longer unemployment spells before exiting to a job compared to married men. Older individuals can expect to be unemployed longer than comparable younger workers. Persons with higher education do not have significantly longer unemployment spells than those with secondary or even primary education. Having children has no effect on the duration of unemployment, however they do appear to motivate women to drop out of the labor force, significantly decreasing the time spent searching for work. Local labor market demand conditions have a significant effect on duration. Individuals in regions with higher unemployment rates, all else equal, have longer unemployment spells. With respect to the reason for the entering unemployment, persons laid off from their last job have shorter durations relative to quitters. Finally, there is evidence of duration dependence in the re-employment hazard in Russia, with a period of positive duration dependence in the first 7 months, followed by a declining hazard until approximately eighteen months. These results are robust to the introduction of unobserved heterogeneity.Unemployment Duration, Economic Transition, Russia

    Multiple Job Holding in Russia During Economic Transition

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    This article analyzes multiple job holding in the context of economic transition. Evidence from a nationally representative longitudinal survey of Russian citizens is used to characterize secondary jobs and second job holders, with emphasis on the determinants of multiple job holding. There has been a marked increase in multiple job holding, rising from 5.6 percent overall in 1992 to 10.1 percent in 1996. Economic conditions prevalent in Russia's labor market are found to strongly affect secondary job activity. Workers who have experienced wage arrears, been placed on involuntary leave, or are working less than full-time are all significantly more likely to take on second jobs. Higher education nearly doubles this probability. As transition has progressed, women have become not only much less likely to engage in additional work, but those that do so receive significantly lower second-job wages, with a gender wage gap of 68 percent, over 3 times that for primary jobs. Marriage and young children are associated with lower multiple job holding rates for women.Multiple Job Holding, Economic Transition, Russia

    Household Savings in Russia during the Transition

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    We exploit panel data from the second phase of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to investigate the household characteristics that explain saving during a period of extreme dislocation. Among our more noteworthy findings, we find evidence of short-term consumption smoothing behavior as households respond to temporary income shocks. Conditional on income level, we find that savings rates are higher in households benefiting from non-standard (likely transitory) sources of support such as private transfers and sales of home produced food; savings rates are lower, moreover, in households suffering from unemployment or payment arrears. We also confirm the robustness of an atypical U-shaped age-savings relationship to multivariate specifications. And finally, we turn up strong support for an inverse relationship between the household’s stock of durables and its saving rate.

    Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices

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    This paper analyzes the financing terms that support international trade and sheds light on how and why these arrangements affect trade. Using detailed transaction level data from a U.S. based exporter of frozen and refrigerated food products, primarily poultry, it begins by describing broad patterns about the use of alternative financing terms. These patterns help discipline a model in which the trade finance mode is shaped by the risk that an importer defaults on an exporter and by the possibility that an exporter does not deliver goods as specified in the contract. The empirical results indicate that transactions are more likely to occur on cash in advance or letter of credit terms when the importer is located in a country with weak contractual enforcement and in a country that is further from the exporter. Letters of credit, however, are rarely used by the exporter. As an importer develops a relationship with the exporter, transactions are less likely to occur on terms that require prepayment. During the recent crisis, the exporter was more likely to demand cash in advance terms when transacting with new customers, and customers that traded on cash in advance terms prior to the crisis disproportionately reduced their purchases. These results can be rationalized by the model whenever (i) misbehavior on the part of the exporter is of little concern to importers, and (ii) local banks in importing countries are typically more effective than the exporter in pursuing financial claims against importers.

    Facts and Fallacies about U.S. FDI in China

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    Despite the rapid expansion of U.S.-China trade ties, the increase in U.S. FDI in China, and the expanding amount of economic research exploring these developments, a number of misconceptions distort the popular understanding of U.S. multinationals in China. In this paper, we seek to correct four common misunderstandings by providing a statistical portrait of several aspects of U.S. affiliate activity in the country and placing this activity in its appropriate economic context.

    The Comovement of Returns and Investment Within the Multinational Firm

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    Can financial integration, particularly the cross-border investments of multinational firms, help explain the synchronization of business cycles? This paper presents evidence on the comovement of returns and investment within U.S. multinational firms to address this question. These firms constitute significant fractions of economic output and investment in most large economies, suggesting that they could create significant economic linkages. Aggregate measures of rates of return and investment rates of U.S. multinational firms located in different countries are highly correlated across countries. Firm-level regressions demonstrate that rates of return and investment rates of affiliates are highly correlated with the rates of return and investment of the affiliate's parent and other affiliates within the same parent system, controlling for country and industry factors. The evidence on these interrelationships and the importance of multinationals to local economies suggests that global firms may be an important channel for transmitting economic shocks. This evidence also sheds light on asset pricing puzzles related to the diversification benefits provided by multinational firms.
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