Leading-effect vs. Risk-taking in Dynamic Tournaments: Evidence from a Real-life Randomized Experiment

Two 'order effects' may emerge in dynamic tournaments with information feedback. First, participants adjust effort across stages, which could advantage the leading participant who faces a larger 'effective prize' after an initial victory (leading-effect). Second, participants lagging behind may increase risk at the final stage as they have 'nothing to lose' (risk-taking). We use a randomized natural experiment in professional two-game soccer tournaments where the treatment (order of a stage-specific advantage) and team characteristics, e.g. ability, are independent. We develop an identification strategy to test for leading-effects controlling for risk-taking. We find no evidence of leading-effects and negligible risk-taking effects

Modeling the Value of Strategic Actions in the Superior Colliculus

In learning models of strategic game play, an agent constructs a valuation (action value) over possible future choices as a function of past actions and rewards. Choices are then stochastic functions of these action values. Our goal is to uncover a neural signal that correlates with the action value posited by behavioral learning models. We measured activity from neurons in the superior colliculus (SC), a midbrain region involved in planning saccadic eye movements, while monkeys performed two saccade tasks. In the strategic task, monkeys competed against a computer in a saccade version of the mixed-strategy game ”matching-pennies”. In the instructed task, saccades were elicited through explicit instruction rather than free choices. In both tasks neuronal activity and behavior were shaped by past actions and rewards with more recent events exerting a larger influence. Further, SC activity predicted upcoming choices during the strategic task and upcoming reaction times during the instructed task. Finally, we found that neuronal activity in both tasks correlated with an established learning model, the Experience Weighted Attraction model of action valuation (Camerer and Ho, 1999). Collectively, our results provide evidence that action values hypothesized by learning models are represented in the motor planning regions of the brain in a manner that could be used to select strategic actions

Modeling Collective Cell Behavior in Cancer: Perspectives From an Interdisciplinary Conversation

Collective cell behavior contributes to all stages of cancer progression. Understanding how collective behavior emerges through cell-cell interactions and decision-making will advance our understanding of cancer biology and provide new therapeutic approaches. Here, we summarize an interdisciplinary discussion on multicellular behavior in cancer, draw lessons from other scientific disciplines, and identify future directions

Best-of-Three Contests: Experimental Evidence

We conduct an experimental analysis of a best-of-three Tullock contest. Intermediate prizes lead to higher efforts, while increasing the role of luck (as opposed to effort) leads to lower efforts. Both intermediate prizes and luck reduce the probability of contest ending in two rounds. The patterns of players‟ efforts and the probability that a contest ends in two rounds is consistent with „strategic momentum‟, i.e. momentum generated due to strategic incentives inherent in the contest. We do not find evidence for „psychological momentum‟, i.e. momentum which emerges when winning affects players‟ confidence. Similar to previous studies of contests, we find significantly higher efforts than predicted and strong heterogeneity in effort between subjects

A Survey of Experimental Research on Contests, All-Pay Auctions and Tournaments

Many economic, political and social environments can be described as contests in which agents exert costly efforts while competing over the distribution of a scarce resource. These environments have been studied using Tullock contests, all-pay auctions and rankorder tournaments. This survey provides a review of experimental research on these three canonical contests. First, we review studies investigating the basic structure of contests, including the contest success function, number of players and prizes, spillovers and externalities, heterogeneity, and incomplete information. Second, we discuss dynamic contests and multi-battle contests. Then we review research on sabotage, feedback, bias, collusion, alliances, and contests between groups, as well as real-effort and field experiments. Finally, we discuss applications of contests to the study of legal systems, political competition, war, conflict avoidance, sales, and charities, and suggest directions for future research. (author's abstract

A Meaningful U.S. Cap-and-Trade System to Address Climate Change

There is growing impetus for a domestic U.S. climate policy that can provide meaningful reductions in emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. In this article, I propose and analyze a scientifically sound, economically rational, and politically feasible approach for the United States to reduce its contributions to the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. The proposal features an up-stream, economy-wide CO2 cap-and-trade system which implements a gradual trajectory of emissions reductions over time, and includes mechanisms to reduce cost uncertainty. I compare the proposed system with frequently discussed alternatives. In addition, I describe common objections to a cap-and-trade approach to the problem, and provide responses to these objections

A Review of Stata 3.1.

Stata 3.1 is a program for data management, graphics, and statistical analysis. Since Version 2.1 was reviewed by Pederson (1991), Stata has added several platforms, third-party products, supporting services, and many features of interest to econometricians. The result is that Stata 3.1 integrates fast and reliable manipulation of data with high-powered statistical analysis. For users who do no more than run regressions, the new features do not detract from the feel of ease and control Stata gives the researcher working with any data set, large or small. A unique system to disseminate user-written programs lets Stata grow continuously without becoming unwieldy, ensuring that Stata will become a standard package in several branches of applied statistics. This review summarizes the hardware requirements of Stata, demonstrates a short but typical Stata session, and discusses some of the unique elements of Stata. Copyright 1994 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tectonic stress regime of the Cascades region and tectonic classification of large calderas

Typescript.Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1986.Bibliography: leaves 361-395.Photocopy.xviii, 395 leaves, bound ill. 29 c