Rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease among children presenting to two referral hospitals in Harare, Zimbabwe

Background. Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remain significant causes of morbidity and mortality in resource-limited settings. In Zimbabwe ARF/RHD characteristics have not been systematically documented.Objectives. To document cases of ARF/RHD among children presenting at referral hospitals in Harare, Zimbabwe, determine their clinical and echocardiographic characteristics, and identify opportunities for improving care. Methods. A cross-sectional survey was carried out in which consecutive children aged 1 - 12 years presenting with ARF/RHD according to the 2002/3 World Health Organization modified Jones criteria were enrolled.Results. Out of 2 601 admissions and 1 026 outpatient visits over 10 months, 50 children were recruited, including 31 inpatients with ARF/RHD and 19 outpatients with chronic RHD. Among inpatients, 9 had ARF only, 7 recurrent ARF with RHD, and 15 RHD only. The commonest valve lesions were mitral regurgitation (26/31) and aortic regurgitation (11/31). The commonest reason for admission was cardiac failure (22/31). The proportion of ARF/RHD cases among inpatients aged 1 - 12 years was 11.9/1 000. Of the 22 with RHD, 14 (63.6%) presented de novo and 1 had bacterial endocarditis. Among the outpatients, 15 had cardiac failure while echocardiographic findings included mitral regurgitation (18/19) and aortic regurgitation (5/19). At presentation, 18/26 known cases were on oral penicillin prophylaxis and 7 on injectable penicillin. Of those on secondary prophylaxis, 68.0% reported taking it regularly. Conclusion. ARF/RHD remains a major problem and cause of hospital admissions in Harare, Zimbabwe. Children often present late with established RHD and cardiac failure. With the majority on oral penicillin, secondary prophylaxis was suboptimal in a resource-limited setting unable to offer valve replacement surgery.

Inflammation: the driver of poor outcomes among children with severe acute malnutrition?

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is the most life-threatening form of undernutrition and underlies at least 10% of all deaths among children younger than 5 years in low-income countries. SAM is a complex, multisystem disease, with physiological perturbations observed in conjunction with the loss of lean mass, including structural and functional changes in many organ systems. Despite the high mortality burden, predominantly due to infections, the underlying pathogenic pathways remain poorly understood. Intestinal and systemic inflammation is heightened in children with SAM. Chronic inflammation and its consequent immunomodulation may explain the increased morbidity and mortality from infections in children with SAM, both during hospitalization and in the longer term after discharge. Recognition of the role of inflammation in SAM is critical in considering new therapeutic targets in this disease, which has not seen a transformational approach to treatment for several decades. This review highlights the central role of inflammation in the wide-ranging pathophysiology of SAM, as well as identifying potential interventions that have biological plausibility based on evidence from other inflammatory syndromes

Marginal structural models for repeated measures where intercept and slope are correlated: An application exploring the benefit of nutritional supplements on weight gain in HIV-infected children initiating antiretroviral therapy

BackgroundThe impact of nutritional supplements on weight gain in HIV-infected children on antiretroviral treatment (ART) remains uncertain. Starting supplements depends upon current weight-for-age or other acute malnutrition indicators, producing time-dependent confounding. However, weight-for-age at ART initiation may affect subsequent weight gain, independent of supplement use. Implications for marginal structural models (MSMs) with inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) are unclear.MethodsIn the ARROW trial, non-randomised supplement use and weight-for-age were recorded monthly from ART initiation. The effect of supplements on weight-for-age over the first year was estimated using generalised estimating equation MSMs with IPTW, both with and without interaction terms between baseline weight-for-age and time. Separately, data were simulated assuming no supplement effect, with use depending on current weight-for-age, and weight-for-age trajectory depending on baseline weight-for-age to investigate potential bias associated with different MSM specifications.ResultsIn simulations, despite correctly specifying IPTW, omitting an interaction in the MSM between baseline weight-for-age and time produced increasingly biased estimates as associations between baseline weight-for-age and subsequent weight trajectory increased. Estimates were unbiased when the interaction between baseline weight-for-age and time was included, even if the data were simulated with no such interaction. In ARROW, without an interaction the estimated effect was +0.09 (95%CI +0.02,+0.16) greater weight-for-age gain per month's supplement use; this reduced to +0.03 (-0.04,+0.10) including the interaction.DiscussionThis study highlights a specific situation in which MSM model misspecification can occur and impact the resulting estimate. Since an interaction in the MSM (outcome) model does not bias the estimate of effect if the interaction does not exist, it may be advisable to include such a term when fitting MSMs for repeated measures

The cost-effectiveness of prophylaxis strategies for individuals with advanced HIV starting treatment in Africa

Introduction: Many HIV-positive individuals in Africa have advanced disease when initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) so have high risks of opportunistic infections and death. The REALITY trial found that an enhanced-prophylaxis package including fluconazole reduced mortality by 27% in individuals starting ART with CD4<100 cells/mm3. We investigated the cost-effectiveness of this enhanced-prophylaxis package versus other strategies, including using cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) testing, in individuals with CD4<200 cells/mm3 or <100 cells/mm3 at ART initiation and all individuals regardless of CD4 count. Methods: The REALITY trial enrolled from June 2013 to April 2015. A decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of six management strategies in individuals initiating ART in the REALITY trial countries. Strategies included standard-prophylaxis, enhanced-prophylaxis, standard-prophylaxis with fluconazole; and three CrAg testing strategies, the first stratifying individuals to enhanced-prophylaxis (CrAg-positive) or standard-prophylaxis (CrAg-negative), the second to enhanced-prophylaxis (CrAg-positive) or enhanced-prophylaxis without fluconazole (CrAg-negative) and the third to standard-prophylaxis with fluconazole (CrAg-positive) or without fluconazole (CrAg-negative). The model estimated costs, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) over 48 weeks using three competing mortality risks: cryptococcal meningitis; tuberculosis, serious bacterial infection or other known cause; and unknown cause. Results: Enhanced-prophylaxis was cost-effective at cost-effectiveness thresholds of US$300 and US$500 per QALY with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$157 per QALY in the CD4<200 cells/mm3 population providing enhanced-prophylaxis components are sourced at lowest available prices. The ICER reduced in more severely immunosuppressed individuals (US$113 per QALY in the CD4<100 cells/mm3 population) and increased in all individuals regardless of CD4 count (US$722 per QALY). Results were sensitive to prices of the enhanced-prophylaxis components. Enhanced-prophylaxis was more effective and less costly than all CrAg testing strategies as enhanced-prophylaxis still conveyed health gains in CrAg-negative patients and savings from targeting prophylaxis based on CrAg status did not compensate for costs of CrAg testing. CrAg testing strategies did not become cost-effective unless the price of CrAg testing fell below US$2.30. Conclusions: The REALITY enhanced-prophylaxis package in individuals with advanced HIV starting ART reduces morbidity and mortality, is practical to administer and is cost-effective. Efforts should continue to ensure that components are accessed at lowest available prices. Funding REALITY was funded by the Joint Global Health Trials Scheme (JGHTS) of the UK Department for International Development (DFID), the Wellcome Trust and Medical Research Council (MRC)

Pharmacokinetic Data of Dolutegravir in Second-line Treatment of Children With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Results From the CHAPAS4 Trial

BACKGROUND: Dolutegravir (DTG), combined with a backbone of two NRTIs, is currently the preferred first-line treatment for HIV in childhood. CHAPAS4 is an ongoing randomized controlled trial (#ISRCTN22964075) investigating second-line treatment options for children with HIV. We did a nested PK substudy within CHAPAS4 to evaluate the DTG exposure in children with HIV taking DTG with food, as part of their second-line treatment. METHODS: Additional consent was required for children on DTG enrolled in the CHAPAS4-trial to participate in this PK substudy. Children weighing 14-19.9 kg took 25 mg DTG as dispersible tablets (DT) and children ≥20 kg took 50 mg film-coated tablets (FCT). Steady-state 24 h DTG plasma concentration-time PK profiling was done at t = 0 and 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, and 24 h after observed DTG intake with food. Reference adult PK data and paediatric data from the ODYSSEY-trial was used primarily for comparison. The individual target trough concentration (Ctrough) was defined as 0.32 mg/L. RESULTS: 39 children on DTG were included in this PK substudy. The Geometric Mean (GM), (CV%) AUC0-24h was 57.1 h*mg/L (38.4%) which was approximately 8% below the average AUC0-24h in children in the ODYSSEY-trial with comparable dosages, but above the adult reference. The GM (CV%) Ctrough was 0.82 mg/L (63.8%) which was comparable to ODYSSEY and adult reference values. CONCLUSIONS: This nested PK substudy shows that the exposure of DTG taken with food in children on second-line treatment is comparable with that of children in the ODYSSEY-trial and adult references

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the provision and uptake of services for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is targeting elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV by December 2025, however the COVID-19 pandemic challenged health service delivery globally. Monthly aggregated data were extracted from DHIS-2 for all facilities delivering antenatal care (ANC). ZIMSTAT and Spectrum demographic estimates were used for population-level denominators. Programme indicators are among those in HIV care and population indicators reflect the total population. The mean estimated proportion of pregnant women booking for ANC per month did not change (91% pre-pandemic vs 91% during pandemic, p = 0.95), despite dropping to 47% in April 2020. At a programme-level, the estimated proportion of women who received at least one HIV test fell in April 2020 (3.6% relative reduction vs March (95% CI 2.2–5.1), p&lt;0.001) with gradual recovery towards pre-pandemic levels. The estimated proportion of women who were retested among those initially negative in pregnancy fell markedly in April 2020 (39% reduction (32–45%), p&lt;0.001) and the subsequent increase was much slower, only reaching 39% by September 2021 compared to average 53% pre-pandemic. The mean estimated proportion of pregnant women with HIV on ART was unchanged at programme-level (98% vs 98%, p = 0.26), but decreased at population-level (86% vs 80%, p = 0.049). Antiretroviral prophylaxis coverage decreased among HIV-exposed infants, at programme- (94% vs 87%, p = 0.001) and population-levels (76% vs 68%, p&lt;0.001). There was no significant change in HIV-exposed infants receiving EID (programme: 107% vs 103%, p = 0.52; population: 87% vs 79%, p = 0.081). The estimated proportion of infants with HIV diagnosed fell from 27% to 18%, (p&lt;0.001), while the estimated proportion on ART was stable at a programme (88% vs 90%, p = 0.82) but not population (22% vs 16%, p = 0.004) level. Despite a drop at the start of the pandemic most programme indicators rapidly recovered. At a population-level indicators were slower to return, suggesting less women with HIV identified in care

Optimizing Clinical Trial Design to Maximize Evidence Generation in Pediatric HIV.

For HIV-infected children, formulation development, pharmacokinetic (PK) data, and evaluation of early toxicity are critical for licensing new antiretroviral drugs; direct evidence of efficacy in children may not be needed if acceptable safety and PK parameters are demonstrated in children. However, it is important to address questions where adult trial data cannot be extrapolated to children. In this fast-moving area, interventions need to be tailored to resource-limited settings where most HIV-infected children live and take account of decreasing numbers of younger HIV-infected children after successful prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission. Innovative randomized controlled trial (RCT) designs enable several questions relevant to children's treatment and care to be answered within the same study. We reflect on key considerations, and, with examples, discuss the relative merits of different RCT designs for addressing multiple scientific questions including parallel multi-arm RCTs, factorial RCTs, and cross-over RCTs. We discuss inclusion of several populations (eg, untreated and pretreated children; children and adults) in "basket" trials; incorporation of secondary randomizations after enrollment and use of nested substudies (particularly PK and formulation acceptability) within large RCTs. We review the literature on trial designs across other disease areas in pediatrics and rare diseases and discuss their relevance for addressing questions relevant to HIV-infected children; we provide an example of a Bayesian trial design in prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission and consider this approach for future pediatric trials. Finally, we discuss the relevance of these approaches to other areas, in particular, childhood tuberculosis and hepatitis

Risk factors for postdischarge mortality following hospitalization for severe acute malnutrition in Zimbabwe and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Children discharged from hospital following management of complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) have a high risk of mortality, especially HIV-positive children. Few studies have examined mortality in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) era. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to ascertain 52-wk mortality in children discharged from hospital for management of complicated SAM, and to identify independent predictors of mortality. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted in children enrolled from 3 hospitals in Zambia and Zimbabwe between July 2016 and March 2018. The primary outcome was mortality at 52 wk. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for death, and to investigate whether HIV modifies these associations. RESULTS: Of 745 children, median age at enrolment was 17.4 mo (IQR: 12.8, 22.1 mo), 21.7% were HIV-positive, and 64.4% had edema. Seventy children (9.4%; 95% CI: 7.4, 11.7%) died and 26 exited during hospitalization; 649 were followed postdischarge. At discharge, 43.9% had ongoing SAM and only 50.8% of HIV-positive children were receiving ART. Vital status was ascertained for 604 (93.1%), of whom 55 (9.1%; 95% CI: 6.9, 11.7%) died at median 16.6 wk (IQR: 9.4, 21.9 wk). Overall, 20.0% (95% CI: 13.5, 27.9%) and 5.6% (95% CI: 3.8, 7.9%) of HIV-positive and HIV-negative children, respectively, died [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 3.83; 95% CI: 2.15, 6.82]. Additional independent risk factors for mortality were ongoing SAM (aHR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.22, 4.25), cerebral palsy (aHR: 5.60; 95% CI: 2.72, 11.50) and nonedematous SAM (aHR: 2.23; 95% CI: 1.24, 4.01), with no evidence of interaction with HIV status. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-positive children have an almost 4-fold higher mortality than HIV-negative children in the year following hospitalization for complicated SAM. A better understanding of causes of death, an improved continuum of care for HIV and SAM, and targeted interventions to improve convalescence are needed

“Getting pregnant during COVID-19 was a big risk because getting help from the clinic was not easy”: COVID-19 experiences of women and healthcare providers in Harare, Zimbabwe

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated measures may have disrupted delivery of maternal and neonatal health services and reversed the progress made towards dual elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV and syphilis in Zimbabwe. This qualitative study explores the impact of the pandemic on the provision and uptake of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services from the perspectives of women and maternal healthcare providers. Longitudinal in-depth interviews were conducted with 20 pregnant and breastfeeding women aged 20–39 years living with HIV and 20 healthcare workers in two maternity polyclinics in low-income suburbs of Harare, Zimbabwe. Semi-structured interviews were held after the second and third waves of COVID-19 in March and November 2021, respectively. Data were analysed using a modified grounded theory approach. While eight antenatal care contacts are recommended by Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Health and Child Care, women reported only being able to access two contacts. Although HIV testing, antiretroviral therapy (ART) refills and syphilis screening services were accessible at first contact, other services such as HIV-viral load monitoring and enhanced adherence counselling were not available for those on ART. Closure of clinics and shortened operating hours during the second COVID-19 wave resulted in more antenatal bookings occurring later during pregnancy and more home deliveries. Six of the 20 (33%) interviewed women reported giving birth at home, assisted by untrained traditional midwives as clinics were closed. Babies delivered at home missed ART prophylaxis and HIV testing at birth despite being HIV-exposed. Although women faced multiple challenges, they continued to attempt to access services after delivery. These findings underline the importance of investing in robust health systems that can respond to emergency situations to ensure continuity of essential HIV prevention, treatment, and care services

Recovery of children following hospitalisation for complicated severe acute malnutrition

Nutritional recovery and hospital readmission following inpatient management of complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) are poorly characterised. We aimed to ascertain patterns and factors associated with hospital readmission, nutritional recovery and morbidity, in children discharged from hospital following management of complicated SAM in Zambia and Zimbabwe over 52-weeks posthospitalization. Multivariable Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models, with death and loss to follow-up as competing risks, were used to identify factors associated with hospital readmission; negative binomial regression to assess time to hospitalisation and ordinal logistic regression to model factors associated with nutritional recovery. A total of 649 children (53% male, median age 18.2 months) were discharged to continue community nutritional rehabilitation. All-cause hospital readmission was 15.4% (95% CI 12.7, 18.6) over 52 weeks. Independent risk factors for time to readmission were cerebral palsy (adjusted subhazard ratio (aSHR): 2.96, 95% CI 1.56, 5.61) and nonoedematous SAM (aSHR: 1.64, 95%CI 1.03, 2.64). Unit increases in height-for-age Z-score (HAZ) (aSHR: 0.82, 95% CI 0.71, 0.95) and enrolment in Zambia (aSHR: 0.52, 95% CI 0.28, 0.97) were associated with reduced subhazard of time to readmission. Young age, SAM at discharge, nonoedematous SAM and cerebral palsy were associated with poor nutritional recovery throughout follow-up. Collectively, nonoedematous SAM, ongoing SAM at discharge, cerebral palsy and low HAZ are independent risk factors for readmission and poor nutritional recovery following complicated SAM. Children with these high-risk features should be prioritised for additional convalescent care to improve long-term outcomes