The economic value of Albertine Rift Forests; applications in policy and programming

The objective of this thesis is to quantitatively understand the economic performance of protected area management strategies for forest and biodiversity conservation. Examples such as integrated conservation and development and eco tourism are assessed in terms of their ability to deliver on welfare benefits to local communities, and an assessment of the opportunity costs of forest conservation as a land use strategy. In addition the contribution of forest conservation in protected areas can make to poverty alleviation and economic development is also examined. The geographical focus of this study is the Albertine Rift region of East and Central Africa, stretching north from the southern end of Lake Tanganyika through the spine of Africa to the northern end of Lake Albert. The Albertine Rift is one of Africa’s most important landscapes for the conservation of forests and biodiversity. The overarching objective is addressed using a series of case studies empirically valuing the opportunity costs of conserving forests in a selection of sites in the central part of the Albertine Rift. The success of conservation is most often measured against progress in reducing habitat or species loss and not often in terms of the contribution of the protected area to poverty alleviation and local economic development. Achieving improvements of conservation strategies in the social dimension requires objective evidence on their effects. Economic valuation of protected area resources provides a quantitative means of assessing the promise and performance of conservation policies in achieving welfare benefits to local communities. This thesis provides three case studies each addressing current valuation and social issues in conservation and sets them in a context of managing protected areas in the broad dynamic setting of poverty alleviation and economic growth from a developing economy perspective. In addition two of the empirical studies are as concerned with methodological enquiry and the performance of novel environmental economic valuation techniques, such as the contingent valuation and choice modelling approaches, as the application of results to conservation questions. The empirical studies show that the benefits to local households and communities from their local forests may be greater than at first perceived. Across all protected area categories, biomes and income groups, households derived significant amounts of their overall income from their local protected area with large proportions of the value of goods harvested from forests being consumed in the home. Amongst income groups high income households often appropriated a greater share of the value of forest goods. There was no significant difference found between the household consumption and the sale of protected area products between income groups. The findings indicate that imposing reductions in forest use may increase poverty amongst local people whilst increasing household income will not necessarily reduce forest exploitation. This indicates that community conservation and integrated conservation and development programmes must target the poor forest adjacent households more actively to ensure poverty alleviation, whilst providing improved protection and law enforcement for effective conservation. It is also shown that biodiversity conservation can have an economic return through mountain gorilla eco-tourism. Findings show a disparity between what constitutes eco-tourism and the real values of tourists towards biodiversity conservation and local social benefits from protected areas. Despite showing a high marginal utility for biodiversity conservation, consumers are unwilling to pay for local community benefits from tourism as part of the permit price to view gorillas. Clearly the link between successful conservation and the welfare status of local communities is not sufficiently established in the minds of consumers to influence their spending decisions. The challenges of effectively mobilising communities to protect biodiversity are discussed in the context of the variable impacts of integrated conservation and development programs over the last three decades. Direct payment payments for conservation services schemes are discussed as an innovative tool to add to the gamut of community approaches currently on offer. Payments for conservation schemes are viewed with cautious optimism in terms of their possibility for success. Despite their allure of being more economically and socially efficient at achieving welfare and conservation objectives, given the complex nature of any society, no less research in to social and economic dynamics of protected area use by local communities would be needed to ensure success of such schemes. However, the overwhelming majority of benefits form protected areas are tied up in ecosystem services values. Mechanisms to generate funding and distribute payments for these benefits in terms of offsetting the local opportunity costs are essential to change local behavior and reduce forest degradation and destruction

Measuring the demand for nature-based tourism in Africa: a choice experiment using the "cut-off" approach

Integrated Conservation and Development Plans (ICDPs) have been put forward as means of reconciling wildlife conservation in developing countries with improvements in community incomes. In this paper, we use the Choice Experiment approach to quantify overseas tourists’ willingness to pay for attributes of nature-based tourism as part of an ICDP, focussing on visits to mountain gorilla areas in Rwanda. Contributions to community incomes are included as one attribute of the design. Methodologically, we employ a “cut-offs” approach to choice modelling to filter inconsistent responses and to reduce hypothetical market bias. Three major findings are that (i) many people choose options which violate their stated maximum trip price (ii) the cut-offs approach changes parameter estimates and thus willingness to pay estimates; and that (ii) that tourists do not have a significant demand for how much of tourism spending is channelled to local communities

Comparing opportunity cost measures of forest conservation in Uganda; implications for assessing the distributional impacts of forest management approaches

Reducing deforestation and forest degradation will mean imposing restrictions on the use of forest resources by households that currently use natural forests to maintain their livelihoods. An emerging issue in forest monitoring is the need to assess social and economic impacts in forest user communities of alternative policy and management approaches. Implicit but often unrecognized in forest management strategies focused on integrating people into forest management is that communities are not homogeneous , implying an important degree of variation in the costs of forest use restrictions across households. Quantitative economic methods are essential to a robust measurement of the real socio-economic impacts of forest management and conservation programs, and to adequately design compensation packages to offset local costs. A key entry point to understanding the scope of impact in design of a forest management program, under conditions of local subsistence use, is assessing the minimum compensation necessary to incentivize forest conservation. Two principal valuation approaches exist, financial and economic. The latter measures both financial and social values; but which approach should we use? The selection of valuation approach can dramatically impact estimates of the compensation required to affect real change in forest conservation. Empirical evidence on the divergence of different value measures are presented for four case study forests under different governance arrangements in Uganda. A contingent valuation (CV) survey was administered alongside a market price (MP) method household survey for park-adjacent households. In the CV survey respondents were asked to state their minimum level of compensation required to forgo access to timber and non-timber forest products from their local protected area for a period of one year, whilst the MP survey estimated total annual household income from all sources e.g. agriculture, livestock and forest access. Data were collected from households in areas adjacent to the forests according to a stratified random sample (n=690). Distributional differences in forest income and welfare values are examined, to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of different valuation approaches for estimating the benefits of forest use. We find that a range of complimentary conclusions can be drawn from the two techniques. Together, they provide contrasting information on the importance of forest income to heterogeneous rural households and they can help assess the potential effectiveness of alternative forest management strategies and governance arrangements

Análisis de la metodología de los puntos de corte para la identificación de las respuestas “inconsistentes†en los modelos de elección discreta

En el método del experimento de elección se supone que el entrevistado es perfectamente racional, está informado y maximiza su utilidad siguiendo una regla de elección perfectamente compensatoria. Sin embargo, es posible que los individuos empleen otras reglas de decisión en sus elecciones para simplificar el esfuerzo cognitivo del ejercicio propuesto. En este trabajo se emplea la metodología de los valores de corte para incorporar en el experimento de elección reglas de decisión no compensatorias, y se amplia esta metodología para identificar respuestas inconsistentes. Los resultados indican que el empleo de los valores de corte mejora la capacidad descriptiva de los modelos de elección, y puede ser muy útil para la identificación de inconsistencias en la elección.Experimento de elección, inconsistencias en la elección, puntos de corte., Agricultural and Food Policy, Q5, D01,

Measuring the Local Opportunity Costs of Conservation: A Provision Point Mechanism for Willingness-to-Accept

Protected areas are employed world-wide as a means of conserving biodiversity. Unfortunately, restricting access to such areas imposes opportunity costs on local people who have traditionally relied on access to obtain resources such as fuelwood and bushmeat. We use contingent valuation to estimate the local benefits forgone from loss of access to a number of protected area types in Uganda. Methodologically, we innovate by implementing a "provision point" mechanism to estimate Willingness to Accept compensation (WTA) for loss of access to protected areas. We show that the provision point reduces mean WTA by a significant degree

The economic value of Albertine Rift Forests : applications in policy and programming

The objective of this thesis is to quantitatively understand the economic performance of protected area management strategies for forest and biodiversity conservation. Examples such as integrated conservation and development and eco tourism are assessed in terms of their ability to deliver on welfare benefits to local communities, and an assessment of the opportunity costs of forest conservation as a land use strategy. In addition the contribution of forest conservation in protected areas can make to poverty alleviation and economic development is also examined. The geographical focus of this study is the Albertine Rift region of East and Central Africa, stretching north from the southern end of Lake Tanganyika through the spine of Africa to the northern end of Lake Albert. The Albertine Rift is one of Africa’s most important landscapes for the conservation of forests and biodiversity. The overarching objective is addressed using a series of case studies empirically valuing the opportunity costs of conserving forests in a selection of sites in the central part of the Albertine Rift. The success of conservation is most often measured against progress in reducing habitat or species loss and not often in terms of the contribution of the protected area to poverty alleviation and local economic development. Achieving improvements of conservation strategies in the social dimension requires objective evidence on their effects. Economic valuation of protected area resources provides a quantitative means of assessing the promise and performance of conservation policies in achieving welfare benefits to local communities. This thesis provides three case studies each addressing current valuation and social issues in conservation and sets them in a context of managing protected areas in the broad dynamic setting of poverty alleviation and economic growth from a developing economy perspective. In addition two of the empirical studies are as concerned with methodological enquiry and the performance of novel environmental economic valuation techniques, such as the contingent valuation and choice modelling approaches, as the application of results to conservation questions. The empirical studies show that the benefits to local households and communities from their local forests may be greater than at first perceived. Across all protected area categories, biomes and income groups, households derived significant amounts of their overall income from their local protected area with large proportions of the value of goods harvested from forests being consumed in the home. Amongst income groups high income households often appropriated a greater share of the value of forest goods. There was no significant difference found between the household consumption and the sale of protected area products between income groups. The findings indicate that imposing reductions in forest use may increase poverty amongst local people whilst increasing household income will not necessarily reduce forest exploitation. This indicates that community conservation and integrated conservation and development programmes must target the poor forest adjacent households more actively to ensure poverty alleviation, whilst providing improved protection and law enforcement for effective conservation. It is also shown that biodiversity conservation can have an economic return through mountain gorilla eco-tourism. Findings show a disparity between what constitutes eco-tourism and the real values of tourists towards biodiversity conservation and local social benefits from protected areas. Despite showing a high marginal utility for biodiversity conservation, consumers are unwilling to pay for local community benefits from tourism as part of the permit price to view gorillas. Clearly the link between successful conservation and the welfare status of local communities is not sufficiently established in the minds of consumers to influence their spending decisions. The challenges of effectively mobilising communities to protect biodiversity are discussed in the context of the variable impacts of integrated conservation and development programs over the last three decades. Direct payment payments for conservation services schemes are discussed as an innovative tool to add to the gamut of community approaches currently on offer. Payments for conservation schemes are viewed with cautious optimism in terms of their possibility for success. Despite their allure of being more economically and socially efficient at achieving welfare and conservation objectives, given the complex nature of any society, no less research in to social and economic dynamics of protected area use by local communities would be needed to ensure success of such schemes. However, the overwhelming majority of benefits form protected areas are tied up in ecosystem services values. Mechanisms to generate funding and distribute payments for these benefits in terms of offsetting the local opportunity costs are essential to change local behavior and reduce forest degradation and destruction.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceEconomic and Social Research CouncilNatural Environment Research CouncilGBUnited Kingdo

Excavations at the Early Caddo Period Mound Pond Site (41HS12) in Harrison County, Texas

This publication summarizes major archaeological findings from the July 1977 excavations at the Mound Pond site (41HS12), in the Pineywoods of Harrison County, Texas. The site lies on the south, or right, bank of Big Cypress Creek in the upper reaches of Caddo Lake, approximately 4 km north of the village of Uncertain. The Mound Pond Site was recorded by Dr. E. Mott Davis (The University of Texas at Austin) in the 1950s, during the time that he was conducting investigations at nearby Lake O’ the Pines Reservoir. Early in 1977, Forrest Murphey, of Marshall, Texas, approached Glenn Goode about assisting in a test excavation of the large mound at the site. Mr. Murphey (now deceased) had been informed that the landowners intended to build a house on the site, and that the mound would be leveled to make a flat surface. Forrest was a knowledgeable avocational archaeologist of the region, having worked for several years with Dr. Clarence H. Webb and others at the Resch site on Potters Creek south of Marshall, Texas. In preparation for this undertaking, Goode conducted a file and library search at the Texas Archeological Research Laboratory (TARL) at the University of Texas at Austin, and discussed with Dr. Dee Ann Story (director of TARL) the feasibility of attempting such an effort. It was agreed that given the circumstances of impending destruction, an attempt to learn as much as possible in the three weeks available should be made. With Murphey and Goode being the only individuals committed to the entire project, and with no money to hire a crew, they turned to both the avocational and professional communities for assistance. East Texas residents David C. (Dave) Brown of Texarkana Junior College, and Rodney Still, of Kilgore, devoted significant time and expertise to the project. Dave had considerable archaeological experience in East Texas, having worked on several projects for Southern Methodist University in the 1960s. In 1974, Rodney had worked with Goode and the Texas Highway Department at the Marshall Powder Mill excavations, and he was keenly interested in all aspects of Caddo and moundbuilder archaeology

A chemo- and regioselective tandem [3+2]heteroannulation strategy for carbazole synthesis : combining two mechanistically distinct bond-forming processes

A modular approach to prepare tri- and tetracyclic carbazoles by a sequential [3 + 2]heteroannulation is described. First, optimization of Pd-catalyzed Buchwald-Hartwig amination followed by C/N-arylation in a one-pot process is established. Second, mechanistic analyses identified the origins of chemo- and regioselective sequential control of both bond-forming steps. Finally, the substrate scope is demonstrated by the preparation of a range of tri- and tetracyclic carbazoles, including expedient access to several natural products and anti-cancer agents

Convergence towards a European strategic culture? A constructivist framework for explaining changing norms.

The article contributes to the debate about the emergence of a European strategic culture to underpin a European Security and Defence Policy. Noting both conceptual and empirical weaknesses in the literature, the article disaggregates the concept of strategic culture and focuses on four types of norms concerning the means and ends for the use of force. The study argues that national strategic cultures are less resistant to change than commonly thought and that they have been subject to three types of learning pressures since 1989: changing threat perceptions, institutional socialization, and mediatized crisis learning. The combined effect of these mechanisms would be a process of convergence with regard to strategic norms prevalent in current EU countries. If the outlined hypotheses can be substantiated by further research the implications for ESDP are positive, especially if the EU acts cautiously in those cases which involve norms that are not yet sufficiently shared across countries

Prediction of lactate concentrations after cardiac surgery using machine learning and deep learning approaches

BackgroundAlthough conventional prediction models for surgical patients often ignore intraoperative time-series data, deep learning approaches are well-suited to incorporate time-varying and non-linear data with complex interactions. Blood lactate concentration is one important clinical marker that can reflect the adequacy of systemic perfusion during cardiac surgery. During cardiac surgery and cardiopulmonary bypass, minute-level data is available on key parameters that affect perfusion. The goal of this study was to use machine learning and deep learning approaches to predict maximum blood lactate concentrations after cardiac surgery. We hypothesized that models using minute-level intraoperative data as inputs would have the best predictive performance.MethodsAdults who underwent cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass were eligible. The primary outcome was maximum lactate concentration within 24 h postoperatively. We considered three classes of predictive models, using the performance metric of mean absolute error across testing folds: (1) static models using baseline preoperative variables, (2) augmentation of the static models with intraoperative statistics, and (3) a dynamic approach that integrates preoperative variables with intraoperative time series data.Results2,187 patients were included. For three models that only used baseline characteristics (linear regression, random forest, artificial neural network) to predict maximum postoperative lactate concentration, the prediction error ranged from a median of 2.52 mmol/L (IQR 2.46, 2.56) to 2.58 mmol/L (IQR 2.54, 2.60). The inclusion of intraoperative summary statistics (including intraoperative lactate concentration) improved model performance, with the prediction error ranging from a median of 2.09 mmol/L (IQR 2.04, 2.14) to 2.12 mmol/L (IQR 2.06, 2.16). For two modelling approaches (recurrent neural network, transformer) that can utilize intraoperative time-series data, the lowest prediction error was obtained with a range of median 1.96 mmol/L (IQR 1.87, 2.05) to 1.97 mmol/L (IQR 1.92, 2.05). Intraoperative lactate concentration was the most important predictive feature based on Shapley additive values. Anemia and weight were also important predictors, but there was heterogeneity in the importance of other features.ConclusionPostoperative lactate concentrations can be predicted using baseline and intraoperative data with moderate accuracy. These results reflect the value of intraoperative data in the prediction of clinically relevant outcomes to guide perioperative management