Forecasting Livestock Feed Cost Risks Using Futures and Options

The costs of corn- and soybean-based feeds compose a substantial proportion of the variable costs faced by both mainstream and emergent confined livestock producers. This research develops a method to provide a joint distribution of prices of corn and soybean meal at a future time. Black's 1976 option model and stochastic volatility jump diffusion (SVJD) model are compared in volatility forecasting performance. In general, SVJD is superior to Black's model, though their performance is both commodity-specific and forecasting horizon specific.Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,

Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models for Commodity Futures Options

The central part of pricing agricultural commodity futures options is to find appropriate stochastic process of the underlying assets. The Black's (1976) futures option pricing model laid the foundation for a new era of futures option valuation theory. The geometric Brownian motion assumption girding the Black's model, however, has been regarded as unrealistic in numerous empirical studies. Option pricing models incorporating discrete jumps and stochastic volatility have been studied extensively in the literature. This study tests the performance of major alternative option pricing models and attempts to find the appropriate model for pricing commodity futures options.Marketing,

Managing Livestock Feed Cost Risks Using Futures and Options

The costs of corn- and soybean-based feeds compose a substantial proportion of the variable costs faced by both mainstream and emergent confined livestock producers. This research develops a method to provide a joint distribution of prices of corn and soybean meal at a future time. Black's 1976 option model and stochastic volatility jump diffusion (SVJD) model are compared in volatility forecasting performance. In general, SVJD is superior to Black's model, though their performance is both commodity-specific and forecasting horizon specific. The price forecast can assist livestock producers to assess different feed procurement strategies in terms of the distribution of costs projected for each strategy.Risk and Uncertainty,

Population Dynamics and Community Composition of Ammonia Oxidizers in Salt Marshes after the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

The recent oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico had significant effects on microbial communities in the Gulf, but impacts on nitrifying communities in adjacent salt marshes have not been investigated. We studied persistent effects of oil on ammonia-oxidizing archaeal (AOA) and bacterial (AOB) communities and their relationship to nitrification rates and soil properties in Louisiana marshes impacted by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Soils were collected at oiled and unoiled sites from Louisiana coastal marshes in July 2012, 2 years after the spill, and analyzed for community differences based on ammonia monooxygenase genes (amoA). Terminal Restriction Fragment Polymorphism and DNA sequence analyses revealed significantly different AOA and AOB communities between the three regions, but few differences were found between oiled and unoiled sites. Community composition of nitrifiers was best explained by differences in soil moisture and nitrogen content. Despite the lack of significant oil effects on overall community composition, we identified differences in correlations of individual populations with potential nitrification rates between oiled and unoiled sites that help explain previously published correlation patterns. Our results suggest that exposure to oil, even 2 years post-spill, led to subtle changes in population dynamics. How, or if, these changes may impact ecosystem function in the marshes, however, remains uncertain

Military Voting and the Law: Procedural and Technological Solutions to the Ballot Transit Problem

During the 2000 presidential election controversy in Florida, the ballots submitted by individuals living overseas—especially military voters—were seen as crucial to the election outcome as the margin of potential victory was so small that these ballots could turn the election from one candidate to the other. Headlines at the time noted that “Odds Against Gore Absentee Gains: Republican-Leaning Counties Appear to Have More Uncounted Overseas Ballots,” “Bush Lead Swells with Overseas Votes,” “Military Ballot Review is Urged,” and “How Bush Took Florida: Mining the Overseas Absentee Vote.” For many Americans, however, the controversy surrounding the votes of military personnel and overseas voters, despite its importance, may have seemed both bewildering and esoteric. The debate centered on minute details; whether or not certain overseas absentee ballots were valid and could therefore be counted if they lacked postmarks, were received within given time periods, had missing signature or were deficient in other statutorily required characteristics, that are beyond the interest of the typical individual. However, several key legal skirmishes were fought within the broader context of the recount battle concerning whether certain absentee ballots could be counted, the resolution of which could have swayed the outcome of the 2000 presidential election. Issues of equal protection, federalism and statutory interpretation played large roles in this litigation. The tension between allowing overseas votes to be counted and ensuring a fair election that complied with state law was at the heart of the debate and related litigation

Parental perceived built environment measures and active play in Washington DC metropolitan children

AbstractObjectivePrevious research identified associations between perceived built environment and adult physical activity; however, fewer studies have explored associations in children. The Built Environment and Active Play (BEAP) Study examined relationships between children's active play and parental perceptions of home neighborhood built environments within the Washington, DC metropolitan area (DMV).MethodsWith this cross-sectional study, a questionnaire was administered in 2014 to parents of children (7–12years old) residing in the DMV. Data were collected on children's active play, home built environment parental perceptions, and demographics. Active play response data were dichotomized by whether the child did or did not meet the 60-min/day Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans (PAGAs) recommendation. Perceived home neighborhood built environment data were also dichotomized. Chi-square tests determined differences in parental perceived built environment measures between active and non-active child groups. Logistic regression assessed the association of parental perceived built environment variables with active play while adjusting for demographic variables.ResultsThe BEAP Study population (n=144) included a uniquely diverse population of children with 23.7% African Americans and 10.4% Asian Americans. A statistically significant greater proportion of active children's parents agreed with the importance of neighborhood esthetics, active play areas, walkability and safety as compared to the parents of non-active children. Fully adjusted logistic regression models demonstrated that some parental perceived built environment measures (e.g. access to play equipment) were predictors of their children meeting the 60-min/day PAGA recommendation.ConclusionOur findings support the important role of home neighborhood built environment perceptions on childhood active play

The space physics environment data analysis system (SPEDAS)

With the advent of the Heliophysics/Geospace System Observatory (H/GSO), a complement of multi-spacecraft missions and ground-based observatories to study the space environment, data retrieval, analysis, and visualization of space physics data can be daunting. The Space Physics Environment Data Analysis System (SPEDAS), a grass-roots software development platform (www.spedas.org), is now officially supported by NASA Heliophysics as part of its data environment infrastructure. It serves more than a dozen space missions and ground observatories and can integrate the full complement of past and upcoming space physics missions with minimal resources, following clear, simple, and well-proven guidelines. Free, modular and configurable to the needs of individual missions, it works in both command-line (ideal for experienced users) and Graphical User Interface (GUI) mode (reducing the learning curve for first-time users). Both options have “crib-sheets,” user-command sequences in ASCII format that can facilitate record-and-repeat actions, especially for complex operations and plotting. Crib-sheets enhance scientific interactions, as users can move rapidly and accurately from exchanges of technical information on data processing to efficient discussions regarding data interpretation and science. SPEDAS can readily query and ingest all International Solar Terrestrial Physics (ISTP)-compatible products from the Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF), enabling access to a vast collection of historic and current mission data. The planned incorporation of Heliophysics Application Programmer’s Interface (HAPI) standards will facilitate data ingestion from distributed datasets that adhere to these standards. Although SPEDAS is currently Interactive Data Language (IDL)-based (and interfaces to Java-based tools such as Autoplot), efforts are under-way to expand it further to work with python (first as an interface tool and potentially even receiving an under-the-hood replacement). We review the SPEDAS development history, goals, and current implementation. We explain its “modes of use” with examples geared for users and outline its technical implementation and requirements with software developers in mind. We also describe SPEDAS personnel and software management, interfaces with other organizations, resources and support structure available to the community, and future development plans.Published versio

Awareness with paralysis and symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder among mechanically ventilated emergency department survivors (ED-AWARENESS-2 Trial): study protocol for a pragmatic, multicenter, stepped wedge cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Awareness with paralysis (AWP) is memory recall during neuromuscular blockade (NMB) and can cause significant psychological harm. Decades of effort and rigorous trials have been conducted to prevent AWP in the operating room, where prevalence is 0.1-0.2%. By contrast, AWP in mechanically ventilated emergency department (ED) patients is common, with estimated prevalence of 3.3-7.4% among survivors given NMB. Longer-acting NMB use is a critical risk for AWP, and we have shown an association between ED rocuronium use and increased AWP prevalence. As NMB are given to more than 90% of ED patients during tracheal intubation, this trial provides a platform to test an intervention aimed at reducing AWP. The overall objective is to test the hypothesis that limiting ED rocuronium exposure will significantly reduce the proportion of patients experiencing AWP. METHODS: This is a pragmatic, stepped wedge cluster randomized trial conducted in five academic EDs, and will enroll 3090 patients. Per the design, all sites begin in a control phase, under observational conditions. At 6-month intervals, sites sequentially enter a 2-month transition phase, during which we will implement the multifaceted intervention, which will rely on use of nudges and defaults to change clinician decisions regarding ED NMB use. During the intervention phase, succinylcholine will be the default NMB over rocuronium. The primary outcome is AWP, assessed with the modified Brice questionnaire, adjudicated by three independent, blinded experts. The secondary outcome is the proportion of patients developing clinically significant symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder at 30 and 180 days after hospital discharge. We will also assess for symptoms of depression and anxiety, and health-related quality of life. A generalized linear model, adjusted for time and cluster interactions, will be used to compare AWP in control versus intervention phases, analyzed by intention-to-treat. DISCUSSION: The ED-AWARENESS-2 Trial will be the first ED-based trial aimed at preventing AWP, a critical threat to patient safety. Results could shape clinical use of NMB in the ED and prevent more than 10,000 annual cases of AWP related to ED care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT05534243 . Registered 06, September 2022

Awareness with paralysis and symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder among mechanically ventilated emergency department survivors (ED-AWARENESS-2 Trial): Study protocol for a pragmatic, multicenter, stepped wedge cluster randomized trial

BACKGROUND: Awareness with paralysis (AWP) is memory recall during neuromuscular blockade (NMB) and can cause significant psychological harm. Decades of effort and rigorous trials have been conducted to prevent AWP in the operating room, where prevalence is 0.1-0.2%. By contrast, AWP in mechanically ventilated emergency department (ED) patients is common, with estimated prevalence of 3.3-7.4% among survivors given NMB. Longer-acting NMB use is a critical risk for AWP, and we have shown an association between ED rocuronium use and increased AWP prevalence. As NMB are given to more than 90% of ED patients during tracheal intubation, this trial provides a platform to test an intervention aimed at reducing AWP. The overall objective is to test the hypothesis that limiting ED rocuronium exposure will significantly reduce the proportion of patients experiencing AWP. METHODS: This is a pragmatic, stepped wedge cluster randomized trial conducted in five academic EDs, and will enroll 3090 patients. Per the design, all sites begin in a control phase, under observational conditions. At 6-month intervals, sites sequentially enter a 2-month transition phase, during which we will implement the multifaceted intervention, which will rely on use of nudges and defaults to change clinician decisions regarding ED NMB use. During the intervention phase, succinylcholine will be the default NMB over rocuronium. The primary outcome is AWP, assessed with the modified Brice questionnaire, adjudicated by three independent, blinded experts. The secondary outcome is the proportion of patients developing clinically significant symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder at 30 and 180 days after hospital discharge. We will also assess for symptoms of depression and anxiety, and health-related quality of life. A generalized linear model, adjusted for time and cluster interactions, will be used to compare AWP in control versus intervention phases, analyzed by intention-to-treat. DISCUSSION: The ED-AWARENESS-2 Trial will be the first ED-based trial aimed at preventing AWP, a critical threat to patient safety. Results could shape clinical use of NMB in the ED and prevent more than 10,000 annual cases of AWP related to ED care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT05534243 . Registered 06, September 2022