Inhomogeneous non-Gaussianity

We propose a method to probe higher-order correlators of the primordial density field through the inhomogeneity of local non-Gaussian parameters, such as f_NL, measured within smaller patches of the sky. Correlators between n-point functions measured in one patch of the sky and k-point functions measured in another patch depend upon the (n+k)-point functions over the entire sky. The inhomogeneity of non-Gaussian parameters may be a feasible way to detect or constrain higher-order correlators in local models of non-Gaussianity, as well as to distinguish between single and multiple-source scenarios for generating the primordial density perturbation, and more generally to probe the details of inflationary physics.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figures; v2: Minor changes and references added. Matches the published versio

Local Scale-Dependent Non-Gaussian Curvature Perturbations at Cubic Order

We calculate non-Gaussianities in the bispectrum and trispectrum arising from the cubic term in the local expansion of the scalar curvature perturbation. We compute to three-loop order and for general momenta. A procedure for evaluating the leading behavior of the resulting loop-integrals is developed and discussed. Finally, we survey unique non-linear signals which could arise from the cubic term in the squeezed limit. In particular, it is shown that loop corrections can cause $f_{NL}^{sq.}$ to change sign as the momentum scale is varied. There also exists a momentum limit where $\tau_{NL} <0$ can be realized.Comment: Published in JCA

Scale-dependent non-Gaussianity and the CMB power asymmetry

We introduce an alternative parametrisation for the scale dependence of the non–linearity parameter fNL in quasi-local models of non–Gaussianity. Our parametrisation remains valid when fNL changes sign, unlike the commonly adopted power law ansatz fNL(k) ∝ knfNL. We motivate our alternative parametrisation by appealing to the self-interacting curvaton scenario, and as an application, we apply it to the CMB power asymmetry. Explaining the power asymmetry requires a strongly scale dependent non-Gaussianity. We show that regimes of model parameter space where fNL is strongly scale dependent are typically associated with a large gNL and quadrupolar power asymmetry, which can be ruled out by existing observational constraints

Strongly scale-dependent polyspectra from curvaton self-interactions

We study the scale dependence of the non-linearity parameters f_NL and g_NL in curvaton models with self-interactions. We show that the spectral indices n_fNL=d ln|f_NL|/(d ln k) and n_gNL=d ln |g_NL|/(d ln k) can take values much greater than the slow--roll parameters and the spectral index of the power spectrum. This means that the scale--dependence of the bi and trispectrum could be easily observable in this scenario with Planck, which would lead to tight additional constraints on the model. Inspite of the highly non-trivial behaviour of f_NL and g_NL in the curvaton models with self-interactions, we find that the model can be falsified if g_NL(k) is also observed.Comment: 19 pages, many figures. v2: Figure 4 replaced with a corrected normalisation, conclusions unchanged. Matches version published in JCA

Diabetes medications and associations with Covid-19 outcomes in the N3C database: A national retrospective cohort study

Background While vaccination is the most important way to combat the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there may still be a need for early outpatient treatment that is safe, inexpensive, and currently widely available in parts of the world that do not have access to the vaccine. There are in-silico, in-vitro, and in-tissue data suggesting that metformin inhibits the viral life cycle, as well as observational data suggesting that metformin use before infection with SARS-CoV2 is associated with less severe COVID-19. Previous observational analyses from single-center cohorts have been limited by size. Methods Conducted a retrospective cohort analysis in adults with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) for associations between metformin use and COVID-19 outcomes with an active comparator design of prevalent users of therapeutically equivalent diabetes monotherapy: metformin versus dipeptidyl-peptidase-4-inhibitors (DPP4i) and sulfonylureas (SU). This took place in the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) longitudinal U.S. cohort of adults with +SARS-CoV-2 result between January 1 2020 to June 1 2021. Findings included hospitalization or ventilation or mortality from COVID-19. Back pain was assessed as a negative control outcome. Results 6,626 adults with T2DM and +SARS-CoV-2 from 36 sites. Mean age was 60.7 +/- 12.0 years; 48.7% male; 56.7% White, 21.9% Black, 3.5% Asian, and 16.7% Latinx. Mean BMI was 34.1 +/- 7.8kg/m2. Overall 14.5% of the sample was hospitalized; 1.5% received mechanical ventilation; and 1.8% died. In adjusted outcomes, compared to DPP4i, metformin had non-significant associations with reduced need for ventilation (RR 0.68, 0.32–1.44), and mortality (RR 0.82, 0.41–1.64). Compared to SU, metformin was associated with a lower risk of ventilation (RR 0.5, 95% CI 0.28–0.98, p = 0.044) and mortality (RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.33–0.97, p = 0.037). There was no difference in unadjusted or adjusted results of the negative control. Conclusions There were clinically significant associations between metformin use and less severe COVID-19 compared to SU, but not compared to DPP4i. New-user studies and randomized trials are needed to assess early outpatient treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis with therapeutics that are safe in adults, children, pregnancy and available worldwide

A method for comparing multiple imputation techniques: A case study on the U.S. national COVID cohort collaborative

Healthcare datasets obtained from Electronic Health Records have proven to be extremely useful for assessing associations between patients’ predictors and outcomes of interest. However, these datasets often suffer from missing values in a high proportion of cases, whose removal may introduce severe bias. Several multiple imputation algorithms have been proposed to attempt to recover the missing information under an assumed missingness mechanism. Each algorithm presents strengths and weaknesses, and there is currently no consensus on which multiple imputation algorithm works best in a given scenario. Furthermore, the selection of each algorithm's parameters and data-related modeling choices are also both crucial and challenging. In this paper we propose a novel framework to numerically evaluate strategies for handling missing data in the context of statistical analysis, with a particular focus on multiple imputation techniques. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach on a large cohort of type-2 diabetes patients provided by the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) Enclave, where we explored the influence of various patient characteristics on outcomes related to COVID-19. Our analysis included classic multiple imputation techniques as well as simple complete-case Inverse Probability Weighted models. Extensive experiments show that our approach can effectively highlight the most promising and performant missing-data handling strategy for our case study. Moreover, our methodology allowed a better understanding of the behavior of the different models and of how it changed as we modified their parameters. Our method is general and can be applied to different research fields and on datasets containing heterogeneous types

Vaccination Against SARS-CoV-2 Is Associated With a Lower Viral Load and Likelihood of Systemic Symptoms

Background: Data conflict on whether vaccination decreases severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load. The objective of this analysis was to compare baseline viral load and symptoms between vaccinated and unvaccinated adults enrolled in a randomized trial of outpatient coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatment. Methods: Baseline data from the first 433 sequential participants enrolling into the COVID-OUT trial were analyzed. Adults aged 30-85 with a body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m2 were eligible within 3 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test and <7 days of symptoms. Log10 polymerase chain reaction viral loads were normalized to human RNase P by vaccination status, by time from vaccination, and by symptoms. Results: Two hundred seventy-four participants with known vaccination status contributed optional nasal swabs for viral load measurement: median age, 46 years; median (interquartile range) BMI 31.2 (27.4-36.4) kg/m2. Overall, 159 (58%) were women, and 217 (80%) were White. The mean relative log10 viral load for those vaccinated <6 months from the date of enrollment was 0.11 (95% CI, -0.48 to 0.71), which was significantly lower than the unvaccinated group (P = .01). Those vaccinated ≥6 months before enrollment did not differ from the unvaccinated with respect to viral load (mean, 0.99; 95% CI, -0.41 to 2.40; P = .85). The vaccinated group had fewer moderate/severe symptoms of subjective fever, chills, myalgias, nausea, and diarrhea (all P < .05). Conclusions: These data suggest that vaccination within 6 months of infection is associated with a lower viral load, and vaccination was associated with a lower likelihood of having systemic symptoms

Randomized Trial of Metformin, Ivermectin, and Fluvoxamine for Covid-19

BACKGROUND Early treatment to prevent severe coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is an important component of the comprehensive response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. METHODS In this phase 3, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial, we used a 2-by-3 factorial design to test the effectiveness of three repurposed drugs - metformin, ivermectin, and fluvoxamine - in preventing serious SARS-CoV-2 infection in nonhospitalized adults who had been enrolled within 3 days after a confirmed diagnosis of infection and less than 7 days after the onset of symptoms. The patients were between the ages of 30 and 85 years, and all had either overweight or obesity. The primary composite end point was hypoxemia (≤93% oxygen saturation on home oximetry), emergency department visit, hospitalization, or death. All analyses used controls who had undergone concurrent randomization and were adjusted for SARSCoV-2 vaccination and receipt of other trial medications. RESULTS A total of 1431 patients underwent randomization; of these patients, 1323 were included in the primary analysis. The median age of the patients was 46 years; 56% were female (6% of whom were pregnant), and 52% had been vaccinated. The adjusted odds ratio for a primary event was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 1.09; P=0.19) with metformin, 1.05 (95% CI, 0.76 to 1.45; P=0.78) with ivermectin, and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.66 to 1.36; P=0.75) with fluvoxamine. In prespecified secondary analyses, the adjusted odds ratio for emergency department visit, hospitalization, or death was 0.58 (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.94) with metformin, 1.39 (95% CI, 0.72 to 2.69) with ivermectin, and 1.17 (95% CI, 0.57 to 2.40) with fluvoxamine. The adjusted odds ratio for hospitalization or death was 0.47 (95% CI, 0.20 to 1.11) with metformin, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.19 to 2.77) with ivermectin, and 1.11 (95% CI, 0.33 to 3.76) with fluvoxamine. CONCLUSIONS None of the three medications that were evaluated prevented the occurrence of hypoxemia, an emergency department visit, hospitalization, or death associated with Covid-19