International capital flows and transmission of financial crises

This paper proposes a model encompassing alternative views of contagion by highlighting the different channels of transmission of financial crises in an unifying framework. We study investor behaviour when they are affected by external habit formation. It is shown how international portfolio choice in frictionless financial markets with habit formation is in itself a channel of contagion. The possible stabilization effects of capital controls and Tobin tax on the international transmission of financial crises are also discussedCurrency crises; contagion; habit formation; portfolio rebalancing; capital controls; Tobin tax

Habit formation and the transmission of financial crises

We study how external habit formation by investors affects the transmission of financial crises. Habit formation increases the effective risk premium on assets when there is a negative wealth shock and introduces non-linearities which can lead to multiple equilibria. We embed this investor�s behavior in the Jeanne (1997) model which allows for a competitiveness effect and for contagion through changes in fundamentals. Habit formation, however, can lead to transmission of financial crises even in the absence of the competitiveness effect, and makes multiple equilibria more likely. The possible stabilization effects of capital controls and a Tobin tax on the international transmission of financial crises are also discussed.

Aluminium market and the macroeconomy

We propose and test a structural model of the interaction between the aluminium market and the macroeconomy incorporating the rational expectations hypothesis. Based on a competition à la Cournot, our model predicts that aluminium spot price and inventories will respond to macroeconomic shocks to line up supply to the demand level. The model also includes incomplete adjustments to shocks that occur near the delivery date of futures contracts with the implication of a likely high persistence in the aluminium spot price. Estimation results show that the aluminium price is significantly affected by the real exchange rate, while the influence of the real interest rate is small. We argue that this result is largely expected once we consider the peculiar features of the aluminium market. Further support to this view is provided by the large persistence of the aluminium price response to its own shock and by the negligible contribution of stockholdings innovations to the price forecast error variance. Finally, macroeconomic shocks explain on the whole a relevant share of the aluminium market variables forecast error variance.Metal commodities, Monetary transmission mechanism, Rational Expectations Hypothesis test, SVAR

Habit formation and the transmission of financial crises

We study how external habit formation by investors affects the transmission of financial crises. Habit formation increases the effective risk premium on assets when there is a negative wealth shock and introduces non-linearities which can lead to multiple equilibria. We embed this investor’s behavior in the Jeanne (1997) model which allows for a competitiveness effect and for contagion through changes in fundamentals. Habit formation, however, can lead to transmission of financial crises even in the absence of the competitiveness effect, and makes multiple equilibria more likely. The possible stabilization effects of capital controls and a Tobin tax on the international transmission of financial crises are also discussed

Does one monetary policy fit all? the determinants of inflation in EMU countries

This chapter aims at assessing the long-run determinants and the short-run dynamics of inflation in each country belonging to the European Monetary Union (EMU). Our work complements the recent literature on this topic for the Euro Area as a whole. Detecting such determinants can be crucial in designing structural reforms acting as aside instruments of monetary policy in maintaining price stability. The empirical methodology consists of a reinterpretation of the structural cointegrating VAR approach, which allows for a structural long-run analysis of inflation determinants along with an accurate assessment of its short-run dynamics. The main conclusion emerging from the estimates is that not only the determinants of inflation differ in the countries belonging to the Euro Area, but also that cost-push factors have a considerable role in explaining inflation in most of the countries examined. As a policy implication, a tight monetary policy pursued in those countries whose inflation is mainly driven by costs would result in a contraction of economic activity without exerting relevant effects on price dynamics.Inflation, markup, EMU countries, long-run structural VARs, subset VEC models

International Financial Contagion: Evidence from the Argentine Crisis of 2001-2002

The aim of this paper is to look for evidence of financial contagion suffered by several countries as a result of the latest Argentine crisis. I focus my attention on a set of countries: Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Uruguay, and Venezuela. I also focus exclusively on three financial markets: foreign exchange, stock exchange, and sovereign debt. In order to test the hypothesis of contagion, Vector Autoregression (VAR) models and instantaneous correlation coefficients corrected for heteroscedasticity are estimated. The analysis shows that there is no evidence of contagion. This result provides empirical support for the non-crisis-contingent theories of international financial contagion.International Financial Contagion, Argentine Crisis, VAR models, Correlation.

TESTING HABITS IN AN ASSET PRICING MODEL

We develop a model of asset pricing assuming that investor's behavior is habit forming. The model predicts that the effect of consumption growth shocks on the risk premium depends on the business cycle phase of the economy. This empirical implication is tested with a Markovswitching VAR model on the US postwar economy. The results show that the response of the risk premium to shocks to consumption is not significantly different over the business cycle phases of the economy. We interpret this as evidence against the habit formation hypothesis of the investor's behavior.Habit formation, Equity premium, Business cycle, Markovswitching VAR models

International Financial Contagion: Evidence from the Argentine Crisis of 2001-2002

The aim of this paper is to look for evidence of financial contagion suffered by several countries as a result of the latest Argentine crisis. I focus my attention on a set of countries: Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Uruguay, and Venezuela. I also focus exclusively on three financial markets: foreign exchange, stock exchange, and sovereign debt. In order to test the hypothesis of contagion, Vector Autoregression (VAR) models and instantaneous correlation coefficients corrected for heteroscedasticity are estimated. The analysis shows that there is no evidence of contagion. This result provides empirical support for the non-crisis-contingent theories of international financial contagion

International Financial Contagion: Evidence from the Argentine Crisis of 2001-2002

The aim of this paper is to look for evidence of financial contagion suffered by several countries as a result of the latest Argentine crisis. I focus my attention on a set of countries: Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Uruguay, and Venezuela. I also focus exclusively on three financial markets: foreign exchange, stock exchange, and sovereign debt. In order to test the hypothesis of contagion, Vector Autoregression (VAR) models and instantaneous correlation coefficients corrected for heteroscedasticity are estimated. The analysis shows that there is no evidence of contagion. This result provides empirical support for the non-crisis-contingent theories of international financial contagion

Foreign capital in Latin America: A long-run structural Global VAR perspective

I study the determinants of capital flows to Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, assessing the relative importance of domestic and global factors. I estimate six VECM models, one for each Latin American country plus the Euro Area, Japan, and USA, and then embed them in a multi-country Global VAR. The co-integrating space is identified in terms of theoretical long-run relations linking net foreign assets (NFA) to the other variables of the model. The results show that in the long-run external prevail on domestic factors as determinants of the equilibrium behaviour of NFA, with the relative importance of each factor varying from one country to another. Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (GFEVD) provide overwhelming evidence that domestic shocks are predominantly responsible for the short-run dynamics of Latin American NFA. Although all previous studies focus on North-American economic influence, one striking result of this paper is that the US variables are by no means the main external factors affecting Latin American NFA. Quite on the contrary, Japanese and, to a lesser extent, European cyclical conditions explain a large proportion of Latin American NFA short-run behaviour