Simulation assessment of the direct-push permeameter for characterizing vertical variations in hydraulic conductivity

This is the published version. Copyright American Geophysical Union[1] The direct-push permeameter (DPP) is a tool for the in situ characterization of hydraulic conductivity (K) in shallow, unconsolidated formations. This device, which consists of a short screened section with a pair of pressure transducers near the screen, is advanced into the subsurface with direct-push technology. K is determined through a series of injection tests conducted between advancements. Recent field work by Butler et al. (2007) has shown that the DPP holds great potential for describing vertical variations in K at an unprecedented level of detail, accuracy and speed. In this paper, the fundamental efficacy of the DPP is evaluated through a series of numerical simulations. These simulations demonstrate that the DPP can provide accurate K information under conditions commonly faced in the field. A single DPP test provides an effective K for the domain immediately surrounding the interval between the injection screen and the most distant pressure transducer. Features that are thinner than that interval can be quantified by reducing the vertical distance between successive tests and analyzing the data from all tests simultaneously. A particular advantage of the DPP is that, unlike most other single borehole techniques, a low-K skin or a clogged screen has a minimal impact on the K estimate. In addition, the requirement that only steady-shape conditions be attained allows for a dramatic reduction in the time required for each injection test

Pumping tests in networks of multilevel sampling wells: Motivation and methodology

This is the published version. Copyright American Geophysical UnionThe identification of spatial variations in hydraulic conductivity (K) on a scale of relevance for transport investigations has proven to be a considerable challenge. Recently, a new field method for the estimation of interwell variations in K has been proposed. This method, hydraulic tomography, essentially consists of a series of short-term pumping tests performed in a tomographic-like arrangement. In order to fully realize the potential of this approach, information about lateral and vertical variations in pumping-induced head changes (drawdown) is required with detail that has previously been unobtainable in the field. Pumping tests performed in networks of multilevel sampling (MLS) wells can provide data of the needed density if drawdown can accurately and rapidly be measured in the small-diameter tubing used in such wells. Field and laboratory experiments show that accurate transient drawdown data can be obtained in the small-diameter MLS tubing either directly with miniature fiber-optic pressure sensors or indirectly using air-pressure transducers. As with data from many types of hydraulic tests, the quality of drawdown measurements from MLS tubing is quite dependent on the effectiveness of well development activities. Since MLS ports of the standard design are prone to clogging and are difficult to develop, alternate designs are necessary to ensure accurate drawdown measurements. Initial field experiments indicate that drawdown measurements obtained from pumping tests performed in MLS networks have considerable potential for providing valuable information about spatial variations in hydraulic conductivity

Steady shape analysis of tomographic pumping tests for characterization of aquifer heterogeneities

This is the published version. Copyright American Geophysical Union[1] Hydraulic tomography, a procedure involving the performance of a suite of pumping tests in a tomographic format, provides information about variations in hydraulic conductivity at a level of detail not obtainable with traditional well tests. However, analysis of transient data from such a suite of pumping tests represents a substantial computational burden. Although steady state responses can be analyzed to reduce this computational burden significantly, the time required to reach steady state will often be too long for practical applications of the tomography concept. In addition, uncertainty regarding the mechanisms driving the system to steady state can propagate to adversely impact the resulting hydraulic conductivity estimates. These disadvantages of a steady state analysis can be overcome by exploiting the simplifications possible under the steady shape flow regime. At steady shape conditions, drawdown varies with time but the hydraulic gradient does not. Thus transient data can be analyzed with the computational efficiency of a steady state model. In this study, we demonstrate the value of the steady shape concept for inversion of hydraulic tomography data and investigate its robustness with respect to improperly specified boundary conditions

Are we saving water? Simple methods for assessing the effectiveness of groundwater conservation measures

Substantial storage reductions by irrigation pumping in many of the world’s major aquifers jeopardize future food production. As a result, new conservation measures are being utilized to reduce pumping and extend aquifer lifespans. The key question is how effective are these practices in attaining true water conservation (i.e., water use reduction) for a given area? Relationships between pumping and precipitation help provide an answer, as precipitation explains most of the variation in annual irrigation water use for aquifers in semi-arid to sub-humid climates when surface water supplies are limited. Our objective is to utilize correlations between radar precipitation and irrigation groundwater use at a range of spatial scales to assess the effectiveness of conservation approaches in the High Plains aquifer in the central USA. Linear regressions between pumping and precipitation for a conservation area established in 2013 in northwest Kansas indicate that water use and water use per irrigated area were over 27 % less and 25 % less, respectively, during 2013–2021 compared to the same climatic conditions during 2005–2012. Similar regressions found over a 38 % reduction and 23 % reduction in irrigation water use and use per irrigated area, respectively, during 2018–2021 compared to the same conditions during 2005–2017 in a west-central Kansas county with conservation areas. A decrease in irrigated area accounted for most of the difference between these reductions. Higher R2 values after conservation area establishment imply that irrigation tracks precipitation better due to use of soil moisture sensors and other measures as part of increased irrigation efficiency and enhanced water management. The precipitation and water use relationships, which are statistically significant for a wide range of spatial scales, have great potential for assessing the effectiveness of conservation practices in areas with high-quality water use and precipitation data

Importance of a sound hydrologic foundation for assessing the future of the High Plains Aquifer in Kansas

This is the published version. Copyright National Academy of SciencesSteward et al. (1) assess the hydrologic and agricultural future of the High Plains Aquifer. We have many concerns about hydrologic aspects of their study and describe the most significant here. The authors state “…the lines of recharge plus storage in Fig. 1C very closely approximate the recent data points of metered groundwater pumping….” That is not correct, as is clear from a comparison of reported pumping data (diamonds) and the authors’ calculated groundwater use (solid line) for the SW region. There is a systematic deviation (authors’ calculated use is increasing, whereas reported metered pumping data are decreasing), which persists even when uncertain pre-1990 pumping data are neglected. The authors’ groundwater use is also markedly inconsistent with common experiences in western Kansas (2). The 2020–2025 (SW) and 2025–2030 (NW) peaks in the authors’ groundwater use are simply a product of their logistic function representation (maximum use at normalized thickness of 0.5) and are in dramatic contrast to recorded pumping trends. Given that calculated groundwater use is input into the agricultural models, we question all of the agricultural projections. The authors provide no objective basis for accepting the logistic function as an accurate tool for projecting water level declines. The comparisons in their table S1 do little to substantiate the use of the function given that the authors (i) adjust two parameters per well; (ii) adjust parameters at each well independently of the other 1,600 wells; and (iii) in aggregate, only assess the first 30% of depletion. A number of alternative functions could be found that would produce similar agreement with existing data but markedly different future projections. We note the circularity of including extrapolated 2060 values in the dataset used to develop logistic curves that are then used to make future projections. The authors state “…and measurement points were added at 1930 and 2060 from a linear extrapolation of observations while keeping these points within the saturated aquifer.” We are concerned about the sensitivity of future projections to inclusion of 1930 and 2060 “measurements” and to the process (unexplained) for “keeping these points within the saturated aquifer.” The authors state that “We computed recent recharge rates to preserve conservation of mass….” That cannot be correct, as is clear from a comparison of reported pumping data (diamonds) and the authors’ calculated change in storage plus recharge (solid line) for the SW region in their figure 1C; a conservation of mass calculation would produce a line through the center of mass of the reported 1981–2009 data. The calculated recharge values appear to have been adjusted in an unexplained manner. Given that, we also question the significance of the match obtained for the groundwater-supported corn plot in their figure 3A. The comparisons in their table S3 do little to substantiate the authors’ recharge estimates because of the above concerns and the lack of consistency with more recent process-based modeling investigations (3, 4). We conclude that this is an interesting, but highly flawed, mathematical exercise that has little bearing on future conditions in the High Plains Aquifer in western Kansas

Sensitivity and resolution of tomographic pumping tests in an alluvial aquifer

This is the published version. Copyright American Geophysical Union[1] Various investigators have proposed hydraulic tomography, the simultaneous analysis of responses to multiple well tests, as a means to obtain a high-resolution characterization of aquifer flow properties. This study assesses the information content of drawdown records from a set of tomographic pumping tests in an alluvial aquifer, comparing the parameter sensitivity and resolution associated with transient and steady-shape formulations of the objective function for the parameter estimation problem. The steady-shape approach takes advantage of the rapid establishment of constant gradients within the region surrounding a pumping well, comparing observed drawdown differences within this region with drawdown differences predicted by a steady state model. Both the transient and steady-shape approaches resolve K variations only within a limited distance of the pumping intervals and observation points. Relative to the transient approach, the steady-shape approach reduces the influence of poorly resolved property variations, including K variations outside the region of investigation and storage coefficient variations throughout the model domain

A modeling tool to evaluate regional coral reef responses to changes in climate and ocean chemistry

This is the published version.We developed a spreadsheet-based model for the use of managers, conservationists, and biologists for projecting the effects of climate change on coral reefs at local-to-regional scales. The COMBO (Coral Mortality and Bleaching Output) model calculates the impacts to coral reefs from changes in average SST and CO2 concentrations, and from high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. The model uses a probabilistic assessment of the frequency of high temperature events under a future climate to address scientific uncertainties about potential adverse effects. COMBO offers data libraries and default factors for three selected regions (Hawai’i, Great Barrier Reef, and Caribbean), but it is structured with user-selectable parameter values and data input options, making possible modifications to reflect local conditions or to incorporate local expertise. Preliminary results from sensitivity analyses and simulation examples for Hawai’i demonstrate the relative importance of high temperature events, increased average temperature, and increased CO2 concentration on the future status of coral reefs; illustrate significant interactions among variables; and allow comparisons of past environmental history with future predictions

A field assessment of the value of steady shape hydraulic tomography for characterization of aquifer heterogeneities

This is the published version. Copyright American Geophysical Union[1] Hydraulic tomography is a promising approach for obtaining information on variations in hydraulic conductivity on the scale of relevance for contaminant transport investigations. This approach involves performing a series of pumping tests in a format similar to tomography. We present a field-scale assessment of hydraulic tomography in a porous aquifer, with an emphasis on the steady shape analysis methodology. The hydraulic conductivity (K) estimates from steady shape and transient analyses of the tomographic data compare well with those from a tracer test and direct-push permeameter tests, providing a field validation of the method. Zonations based on equal-thickness layers and cross-hole radar surveys are used to regularize the inverse problem. The results indicate that the radar surveys provide some useful information regarding the geometry of the K field. The steady shape analysis provides results similar to the transient analysis at a fraction of the computational burden. This study clearly demonstrates the advantages of hydraulic tomography over conventional pumping tests, which provide only large-scale averages, and small-scale hydraulic tests (e.g., slug tests), which cannot assess strata connectivity and may fail to sample the most important pathways or barriers to flow

Geostatistical analysis of centimeter-scale hydraulic conductivity variations at the MADE site

This is the published version. Copyright American Geophysical Union[1] Spatial variations in hydraulic conductivity (K) provide critical controls on solute transport in the subsurface. Recently, new direct-push tools were developed for high-resolution characterization of K variations in unconsolidated settings. These tools were applied to obtain 58 profiles (vertical resolution of 1.5 cm) from the heavily studied macrodispersion experiment (MADE) site. We compare the data from these 58 profiles with those from the 67 flowmeter profiles that have served as the primary basis for characterizing the heterogeneous aquifer at the site. Overall, the patterns of variation displayed by the two data sets are quite similar, in terms of both large-scale structure and autocorrelation characteristics. The direct-push K values are, on average, roughly a factor of 5 lower than the flowmeter values. This discrepancy appears to be attributable, at least in part, to opposite biases between the two methods, with the current versions of the direct-push tools underestimating K in the highly permeable upper portions of the aquifer and the flowmeter overestimating K in the less permeable lower portions. The vertically averaged K values from a series of direct-push profiles in the vicinity of two pumping tests at the site are consistent with the K estimates from those tests, providing evidence that the direct-push estimates are of a reasonable magnitude. The results of this field demonstration show that direct-push profiling has the potential to characterize highly heterogeneous aquifers with a speed and resolution that has not previously been possible