Bayesian analysis of 210Pb dating

In many studies of environmental change of the past few centuries, 210Pb dating is used to obtain chronologies for sedimentary sequences. One of the most commonly used approaches to estimate the ages of depths in a sequence is to assume a constant rate of supply (CRS) or influx of `unsupported' 210Pb from the atmosphere, together with a constant or varying amount of `supported' 210Pb. Current 210Pb dating models do not use a proper statistical framework and thus provide poor estimates of errors. Here we develop a new model for 210Pb dating, where both ages and values of supported and unsupported 210Pb form part of the parameters. We apply our model to a case study from Canada as well as to some simulated examples. Our model can extend beyond the current CRS approach, deal with asymmetric errors and mix 210Pb with other types of dating, thus obtaining more robust, realistic and statistically better defined estimates.Comment: 22 Pages, 4 Figure

Linking past cultural developments to palaeoenvironmental changes in Estonia

Connections between environmental and cultural changes are analysed in Estonia during the past c. 4,500 years. Records of cereal-type pollen as (agri)cultural indices are compared with high-resolution palaeohydrological and annual mean temperature reconstructions from a selection of Estonian bogs and lakes (and Lake Igelsjön in Sweden). A broad-scale comparison shows increases in the percentage of cereal-type pollen during a decreasing trend in annual mean temperatures over the past c. 4,300 years, suggesting a certain independence of agrarian activities from environmental conditions at the regional level. The first cereal-type pollen in the region is found from a period with a warm and dry climate. A slow increase in pollen of cultivated land is seen around the beginning of the late Bronze Age, a slight increase at the end of the Roman Iron Age and a significant increase at the beginning of the Middle Ages. In a few cases increases in agricultural pollen percentages occur in the periods of warming. Stagnation and regression occurs in the periods of cooling, but regression at individual sites may also be related to warmer climate episodes. The cooling at c. 400–300 cal b.p., during the ‘Little Ice Age’ coincides with declines in cereal-type and herb pollen curves. These may not, however, be directly related to the climate change, because they coincide with war activities in the region

High resolution MRI for preoperative work-up of neonates with an anorectal malformation: a direct comparison with distal pressure colostography/fistulography

OBJECTIVE: To compare MRI and colostography/fistulography in neonates with anorectal malformations (ARM), using surgery as reference standard. METHODS: Thirty-three neonates (22 boys) with ARM were included. All patients underwent both preoperative high-resolution MRI (without sedation or contrast instillation) and colostography/fistulography. The Krickenbeck classification was used to classify anorectal malformations, and the level of the rectal ending in relation to the levator muscle was evaluated. RESULTS: Subjects included nine patients with a bulbar recto-urethral fistula, six with a prostatic recto-urethral fistula, five with a vestibular fistula, five with a cloacal malformation, four without fistula, one with a H-type fistula, one with anal stenosis, one with a rectoperineal fistula and one with a bladderneck fistula. MRI and colostography/fistulography predicted anatomy in 88 % (29/33) and 61 % (20/33) of cases, respectively (p = 0.012). The distal end of the rectal pouch was correctly predicted in 88 % (29/33) and 67 % (22/33) of cases, respectively (p = 0.065). The length of the common channel in cloacal malformation was predicted with MRI in all (100 %, 5/5) and in 80 % of cases (4/5) with colostography/fistulography. Two bowel perforations occurred during colostography/fistulography. CONCLUSIONS: MRI provides the most accurate evaluation of ARM and should be considered a serious alternative to colostography/fistulography during preoperative work-up. KEY POINTS: • High-resolution MRI is feasible without the use of sedation or anaesthesia. • MRI is more accurate than colostography/fistulography in visualising the type of ARM. • MRI is as reliable as colostography/fistulography in predicting the level of the rectal pouch. • Colostography/fistulography can be complicated by bowel perforation

High resolution MRI for preoperative work-up of neonates with an anorectal malformation: a direct comparison with distal pressure colostography/fistulography

Objective: To compare MRI and colostography/fistulography in neonates with anorectal malformations (ARM), using surgery as reference standard. Methods: Thirty-three neonates (22 boys) with ARM were included. All patients underwent both preoperative high-resolution MRI (without sedation or contrast instillation) and colostography/fistulography. The Krickenbeck classification was used to classify anorectal malformations, and the level of the rectal ending in relation to the levator muscle was evaluated. Results: Subjects included nine patients with a bulbar recto-urethral fistula, six with a prostatic recto-urethral fistula, five with a vestibular fistula, five with a cloacal malformation, four without fistula, one with a H-type fistula, one with anal stenosis, one with a rectoperineal fistula and one with a bladderneck fistula. MRI and colostography/fistulography predicted anatomy in 88 % (29/33) and 61 % (20/33) of cases, respectively (p = 0.012). The distal end of the rectal pouch was correctly predicted in 88 % (29/33) and 67 % (22/33) of cases, respectively (p = 0.065). The length of the common channel in cloacal malformation was predicted with MRI in all (100 %, 5/5) and in 80 % of cases (4/5) with colostography/fistulography. Two bowel perforations occurred during colostography/fistulography. Conclusions: MRI provides the most accurate evaluation of ARM and should be considered a serious alternative to colostography/fistulography during preoperative work-up. Key Points: • High-resolution MRI is feasible without the use of sedation or anaesthesia. • MRI is more accurate than colostography/fistulography in visualising the type of ARM. • MRI is as reliable as colostography/fistulography in predicting the level of the rectal pouch. • Colostography/fistulography can be complicated by bowel perforation

Double the dates and go for Bayes — impacts of model choice, dating density and quality on chronologies

This work was partly funded by a Banco Santander travel grant to MB. We are also grateful to the Past Earth Network (http://www.pastearth.net/) for writing support (grant number EP/M008363/1).Reliable chronologies are essential for most Quaternary studies, but little is known about how age-depth model choice, as well as dating density and quality, affect the precision and accuracy of chronologies. A meta-analysis suggests that most existing late-Quaternary studies contain fewer than one date per millennium, and provide millennial-scale precision at best. We use existing and simulated sediment cores to estimate what dating density and quality are required to obtain accurate chronologies at a desired precision. For many sites, a doubling in dating density would significantly improve chronologies and thus their value for reconstructing and interpreting past environmental changes. Commonly used classical age-depth models stop becoming more precise after a minimum dating density is reached, but the precision of Bayesian age-depth models which take advantage of chronological ordering continues to improve with more dates. Our simulations show that classical age-depth models severely underestimate uncertainty and are inaccurate at low dating densities, and also perform poorly at high dating densities. On the other hand, Bayesian age-depth models provide more realistic precision estimates, including at low to average dating densities, and are much more robust against dating scatter and outliers. Indeed, Bayesian age-depth models outperform classical ones at all tested dating densities, qualities and time-scales. We recommend that chronologies should be produced using Bayesian age-depth models taking into account chronological ordering and based on a minimum of 2 dates per millennium.PostprintPeer reviewe