How much incident lung cancer was missed globally in 2012? An ecological country-level study

Lung cancer incidence is increasing in many low-to-middle-income countries and is significantly under-reported in Africa, which could potentially mislead policy makers when prioritising disease burden. We employed an ecological correlation study design using countrylevel lung cancer incidence data and associated determinant data. Lagged prevalence of smoking and other exposure data were used to account for exposure-disease latency. A multivariable Poisson model was employed to estimate missed lung cancer in countries lacking incidence data. Projections were further refined to remove potential deaths from infectious/external competing causes. Global lung cancer incidence was much lower among females vs males (13.6 vs 34.2 per 100,000). Distinct spatial heterogeneity was observed for incident lung cancer and appeared concentrated in contiguous regions. Our model predicted a revised global lung cancer incidence in 2012 of 23.6 compared to the Globocan 2012 estimate of 23.1, amounting to ~38,101 missed cases (95% confidence interval: 28,489-47,713). The largest relative under-estimation was predicted for Africa, Central America and the Indian Ocean regions (Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mayotte, Reunion, Seychelles). Our results suggest substantial underreporting of lung cancer incidence, specifically in developing countries (e.g. Africa). The missed cost of treating these cases could amount to >US$ 130 million based on recent developing setting costs for treating earlier stage lung cancer. The full cost is not only under-estimated, but also requires substantial additional social/family inputs as evidenced in more developed settings like the European Union. This represents a major public health problem in developing settings (e.g. Africa) with limited healthcare resources

The Effect of Distance to Formal Health Facility on Childhood Mortality in Rural Tanzania, 2005-2007.

Major improvements are required in the coverage and quality of essential childhood interventions to achieve Millennium Development Goal Four (MDG 4). Long distance to health facilities is one of the known barriers to access. We investigated the effect of networked and Euclidean distances from home to formal health facilities on childhood mortality in rural Tanzania between 2005 and 2007. A secondary analysis of data from a cohort of 28,823 children younger than age 5 between 2005 and 2007 from Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System was carried out. Both Euclidean and networked distances from the household to the nearest health facility were calculated using geographical information system methods. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to investigate the effect of distance from home to the nearest health facility on child mortality. Children who lived in homes with networked distance>5 km experienced approximately 17% increased mortality risk (HR=1.17; 95% CI 1.02-1.38) compared to those who lived <5 km networked distance to the nearest health facility. Death of a mother (HR=5.87; 95% CI 4.11-8.40), death of preceding sibling (HR=1.9; 95% CI 1.37-2.65), and twin birth (HR=2.9; 95% CI 2.27-3.74) were the strongest independent predictors of child mortality. Physical access to health facilities is a determinant of child mortality in rural Tanzania. Innovations to improve access to health facilities coupled with birth spacing and care at birth are needed to reduce child deaths in rural Tanzania

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome, discrete or comorbid diabetes and hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa among people living with HIV versus HIV-negative populations : a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

INTRODUCTION: Metabolic disorder and high blood pressure are common complications globally, and specifically among people living with HIV (PLHIV). Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and hypertension are major risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and their related complications. However, the burden of metabolic syndrome, discrete or comorbid diabetes and hypertension in PLHIV compared with HIV-negative population has not been quantified. This review and meta-analysis aims to compare and analyse the prevalence of these trio conditions between HIV-negative and HIV-positive populations in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis statement guides the methods for this study. Eligibility criteria will be published original articles (English and French language) from SSA that present the prevalence of metabolic syndrome, discrete and/or comorbid diabetes, and hypertension comparisons between PLHIV and HIV-negative populations. The following databases will be searched from January 1990 to February 2017: PubMed/Medline, EBSCOhost, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Scopus, African Index Medicus and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Eligibility screening and data extraction will be conducted independently by two reviewers, and disagreements resolved by an independent reviewer. Methodological quality and risk of bias will be assessed for individual included studies, while meta-analysis will be used to estimate study outcomes prevalence according to subgroups. Sensitivity analysis will also be performed to further test the robustness of the findings. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This proposed study does not require ethical approval. The results will be published as a scientific article in a peer-reviewed journal, and presented at conferences and to relevant health agencies. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PROSPERO registration number (CRD42016045727)

Does high-carbohydrate intake lead to increased risk of obesity? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The present study aimed to test the association between high and low carbohydrate diets and obesity, and second, to test the link between total carbohydrate intake (as a percentage of total energy intake) and obesity. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND OUTCOME MEASURES: We sought MEDLINE, PubMed and Google Scholar for observation studies published between January 1990 and December 2016 assessing an association between obesity and high-carbohydrate intake. Two independent reviewers selected candidate studies, extracted data and assessed study quality. RESULTS: The study identified 22 articles that fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria and quantified an association between carbohydrate intake and obesity. The first pooled strata (high-carbohydrate versus low-carbohydrate intake) suggested a weak increased risk of obesity. The second pooled strata (increasing percentage of total carbohydrate intake in daily diet) showed a weak decreased risk of obesity. Both these pooled strata estimates were, however, not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of the current study, it cannot be concluded that a high-carbohydrate diet or increased percentage of total energy intake in the form of carbohydrates increases the odds of obesity. A central limitation of the study was the non-standard classification of dietary intake across the studies, as well as confounders like total energy intake, activity levels, age and gender. Further studies are needed that specifically classify refined versus unrefined carbohydrate intake, as well as studies that investigate the relationship between high fat, high unrefined carbohydrate-sugar diets. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42015023257

Who dies where, when and why? Modelling determinants and space-time risk of infant, child and adult mortality in rural South Africa, 1992-2008

Ph.D., University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Health Sciences, 201

Infant mortality in South Africa - distribution, associations and policy implications, 2007: an ecological spatial analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many sub-Saharan countries are confronted with persistently high levels of infant mortality because of the impact of a range of biological and social determinants. In particular, infant mortality has increased in sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The geographic distribution of health problems and their relationship to potential risk factors can be invaluable for cost effective intervention planning. The objective of this paper is to determine and map the spatial nature of infant mortality in South Africa at a sub district level in order to inform policy intervention. In particular, the paper identifies and maps high risk clusters of infant mortality, as well as examines the impact of a range of determinants on infant mortality. A Bayesian approach is used to quantify the spatial risk of infant mortality, as well as significant associations (given spatial correlation between neighbouring areas) between infant mortality and a range of determinants. The most attributable determinants in each sub-district are calculated based on a combination of prevalence and model risk factor coefficient estimates. This integrated small area approach can be adapted and applied in other high burden settings to assist intervention planning and targeting.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Infant mortality remains high in South Africa with seemingly little reduction since previous estimates in the early 2000's. Results showed marked geographical differences in infant mortality risk between provinces as well as within provinces as well as significantly higher risk in specific sub-districts and provinces. A number of determinants were found to have a significant adverse influence on infant mortality at the sub-district level. Following multivariable adjustment increasing maternal mortality, antenatal HIV prevalence, previous sibling mortality and male infant gender remained significantly associated with increased infant mortality risk. Of these antenatal HIV sero-prevalence, previous sibling mortality and maternal mortality were found to be the most attributable respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study demonstrates the usefulness of advanced spatial analysis to both quantify excess infant mortality risk at the lowest administrative unit, as well as the use of Bayesian modelling to quantify determinant significance given spatial correlation. The "novel" integration of determinant prevalence at the sub-district and coefficient estimates to estimate attributable fractions further elucidates the "high impact" factors in particular areas and has considerable potential to be applied in other locations. The usefulness of the paper, therefore, not only suggests where to intervene geographically, but also what specific interventions policy makers should prioritize in order to reduce the infant mortality burden in specific administration areas.</p

Admission blood glucose as a prognostic indicator in patients with acute myocardial infarction

Objective: To investigate the utility of admission blood glucose for predicting major adverse cardiac events (MACE) during hospitalisation and 6 months’ postdischarge in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients.Methods and results: This study recruited 2878 AMI patients admitted to the Coronary Care Unit at R. K. Khan Hospital, Durban, South Africa, from 2002 - 2014. Demographic and clinical data stored in an electronic database were obtained from all patients. Admission blood glucose levels were sub-divided into 3 groups; low (&lt;7.8), medium (7.8-10.9) and high (≥11) mmol/l. The mean age of the study population was 57.18 ± 7 years of whom 65% were males. Self-reported diabetes was found in 59%, while 377 patients were diagnosed with diabetes based on HbA1c levels ≥6.5%, increasing the overall prevalence to 72% (n=2070). More patients were in the low admission blood glucose group (49%), medium group (16%), and high group (35%). The highest prevalence of MACE was seen in the high group (42%) compared to either the medium (39%) or low groups (26%; p&lt;0.001), particularly for cardiogenic shock (p&lt;0.001), cardiac failure (p&lt;0.001) and death (p&lt;0.001). Following multivariable logistic regression analyses of clinical and laboratory parameters associated with mortality, high admission blood glucose conferred a significantly increased odds of mortality (p=0.001). The optimal cut-off admission blood glucose value as determined via the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting in hospital and 6 months’ mortality was 8.5mmol/l (AUC of 0.63) and 8.1mmol/l (AUC of 0.61) for MACE.Conclusions: This study shows that patients have multiple risk factors for AMI with diabetes playing a central role. Although elevated admission blood glucose is an important predictor for in hospital and shortterm MACE, the cut-off value for predicting MACE and mortality has only modest predictability and further research is required to improve the performance of these measures for routine clinical use

A behavioural change intervention study for the prevention of childhood obesity in South Africa: protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: South Africa is currently undergoing a nutrition transition, and overweight and obesity is on the increase in South African children. Urbanization and other health determinants have led to reduced physical activity and unhealthy eating that have increased the risk of adverse chronic health conditions. This study aims to provide evidence of the effectiveness of a school-based intervention study that targets diet and physical activity for the prevention of child and adolescent overweight and/or obesity. METHODS: We will employ a mixed method study design which is divided into two phases. Phase 1, namely the qualitative elicitation research phase will inform the development of the quantitative intervention phase (phase 2), consisting of a cluster-randomized trial, based on input from key stakeholders. The study will be undertaken in 16 government-funded primary schools in the iLembe district of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The study will target learners in Grades 4 and 7, their parents, Life Orientation educators, school principals and members of school governing bodies. Assessment for the primary objective (BMI Z scores), and the secondary objectives (change in knowledge, attitudes and behaviours regarding diet and physical activity) in both study arms will be conducted at baseline in March 2020 and at the end of the study in October 2020. DISCUSSION: The study will be a novel combined mixed methods/RCT design that focuses on diet, physical activity school and family-based interventions in the context of rapidly increasing overweight and obesity prevalence in KwaZulu-Natal. To encourage behaviour change and management of malnutrition, education including diet and physical activity, is an important strategy that must be considered. Nutrition education extends beyond the dissemination of food information; it includes addressing the needs of participants, empowers and encourages decision-making and choice of foods, change in nutrition attitudes, beliefs and influences based on resources available and within cultural boundaries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trial Registry PACTR201711002699153. Protocol registered on 16 November 2017

Prevalence and risk factors for child labour and violence against children in Egypt using Bayesian geospatial modelling with multiple imputation

Background The incidence of child labour, especially across developing nations, is of global concern. The use of children in employment in developing economies constitutes a major threat to the societies, and concerted efforts are made by the relevant stakeholders towards addressing some of the factors and issues responsible. Significant risk factors include socio-demographic and economic factors such as poverty, neglect, lack of adequate care, exposure of children to various grades of violence, parental education status, gender, place of residence, household size, residence type or size, wealth index, parental survivorship and household size. Egypt is the largest country in Africa by population. Although UNCIF 2017 reported that the worst forms of child labour in Egypt are concentrated in domestic work, forced begging and commercial sexual exploitation, the situation has received little attention. There are still very few studies initiated specifically to look at child labour in domestic service in Egypt and those that exist have been limited in the scope of their methodology. Geographical coverage and research for child labour in Egypt is also limited, as are accurate statistics and data. There was, therefore, a strong case for looking again at the domestic child labour phenomenon in Egypt, especially after the Demographic Health Survey (DHS) released the first data about child labour in Egypt in 2014. This study builds on the few findings of earlier work, and broadens coverage by including advanced methods and geographical effects of this problem. Objectives This study focuses on identifying socio-demographic, economic and geospatial factors associated with child labour participation. Methods We used the 2014 Egypt Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) from the Ministry of Health and Population in Egypt, with the record of 20,560 never-married children aged 5–17 years engaging in economic activities, in and out of their home. The data focused on demographic and socio-economic characteristics of household members. Multivariate Bayesian geo-additive models were employed to examine the demographical and socio-economic factors for children working less than 16 hrs; between 16 and less 45 hrs; and over 45 hrs weekly. Results The results showed that at least 31.6% of the children in the age group from 5–10 were working, 68.5% of children aged 11–17 years were engaged in child labour for a wage, and 44.7% of the children in the age group from 5–10 were engaged in hazardous work. From the multivariate Bayesian geo-additive models, female children (with male children as reference category) working at least 16 hrs (OR: 1.3; with 95% CI: 1.2–1.5) were more likely to be engaged in child labour than girls working 16 to 45 hrs (OR: 1; 95% CI: 0.3–1.5). Children born to women without formal education, in non-hazardous jobs, irrespective of the hours spent at work, were more likely to be involved in child labour (52.9%, 56.8%, 62.4%) compared to children of mothers with some level of education. Finally, children who have experienced psychological aggression and physical punishment are more likely to be used as child labour than those without such experience across the job types and hours spent. North-eastern Egypt has a higher likelihood of child labour than most other regions, while children who live in the Delta are more engaged in hazardous work. Conclusion This study revealed a significant influence of socio-demographic and economic factors on child labour and violence against children in Egypt. Poverty, neglect, lack of adequate care and exposure of children to various grades of violence are major drivers of child labour across the country. The spatial effect suggests the need to give more attention to some areas that have high rates of child labour, such as the Nile Delta, Upper Egypt, and North-eastern Egypt

Mapping of anaemia prevalence among pregnant women in Kenya (2016-2019).

BACKGROUND: Reducing the burden of anaemia is a critical global health priority that could improve maternal outcomes amongst pregnant women and their neonates. As more counties in Kenya commit to universal health coverage, there is a growing need for optimal allocation of the limited resources to sustain the gains achieved with the devolution of healthcare services. This study aimed to describe the spatio-temporal patterns of maternal anaemia prevalence in Kenya from 2016 to 2019. METHODS: Quarterly reported sub-county level maternal anaemia cases from January 2016 - December 2019 were obtained from the Kenyan District Health Information System. A Bayesian hierarchical negative binomial spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to estimate maternal anaemia prevalence by sub-county and quarter. Spatial and temporal correlations were considered by assuming a conditional autoregressive and a first-order autoregressive process on sub-county and seasonal specific random effects, respectively. RESULTS: The overall estimated number of pregnant women with anaemia increased by 90.1% (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI], 89.9-90.2) from 155,539 cases in 2016 to 295,642 cases 2019. Based on the WHO classification criteria, the proportion of sub-counties with normal prevalence decreased from 28.0% (95% UI, 25.4-30.7) in 2016 to 5.4% (95% UI, 4.1-6.7) in 2019, whereas moderate anaemia prevalence increased from 16.8% (95% UI, 14.7-19.1) in 2016 to 30.1% (95% UI, 27.5-32.8) in 2019 and severe anaemia prevalence increased from 7.0% (95% UI, 5.6-8.6) in 2016 to 16.6% (95% UI, 14.5-18.9) in 2019. Overall, 45.1% (95% UI: 45.0-45.2) of the estimated cases were in malaria-endemic sub-counties, with the coastal endemic zone having the highest proportion 72.8% (95% UI: 68.3-77.4) of sub-counties with severe prevalence. CONCLUSION: As the number of women of reproductive age continues to grow in Kenya, the use of routinely collected data for accurate mapping of poor maternal outcomes remains an integral component of a functional maternal health strategy. By unmasking the sub-county disparities often concealed by national and county estimates, our study findings reiterate the importance of maternal anaemia prevalence as a metric for estimating malaria burden and offers compelling policy implications for achieving national nutritional targets