Consumers struggle to choose new types of electricity tariffs, but comparison tools can help1. ESRI Research Bulletin March 2020/06

The introduction of smart meters in Ireland will soon allow consumers to choose new types of electricity tariffs. Time-of-use tariffs charge different prices for electricity at different times of the day. While these tariffs can help consumers save money on their energy bills, their introduction will make energy tariff choices in Ireland more complicated. In collaboration with the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU), the ESRI’s Behavioural Research Unit undertook a controlled behavioural experiment with a sample of the Irish consumers, to explore their tariff choices. It tested how likely consumers will be to choose new tariffs over existing and simpler tariffs, as well as testing their ability to choose the best tariff for their own electricity usage. The study also pre-tested online tools designed to help consumers make better energy choices

Eliciting trade-offs between water charges and service benefits in Scotland. ESRI Working Paper No. 655 March 2020

If it is the responsibility of a regulatory body to decide where to prioritise future investment, then it is important to understand the priorities of the citizenry it represents. This paper, in collaboration with the OECD and the Scottish water industry, presents the results of an online (n= 500) and face-to-face laboratory (n= 99) study that utilised experimental behavioural science to explore how Scottish citizens trade-off costs and potential improvements to their water service. Participants’ priorities for investment were elicited using a novel ‘slider task’ methodology that forced them to explicitly consider the trade-offs required to allocate limited resources across multiple possible water service improvements. The provision of additional cost and timing information was systematically varied. Results suggest that citizens are increasingly accepting of price rises when provided this information. Results also suggest that citizens’ priorities for specific improvements are not sensitive to the costs of different improvements but are sensitive to the lengths of time improvements take to be made. Findings from this study are designed to inform the regulatory process of the Scottish water industry and highlight the potential role of behavioural science in regulation more generally

An experimental study of attitudes to changing water charges in Scotland. ESRI Working Paper No.654 March 2020

If an aim of a regulatory body is to act on behalf of the views of its citizenry, then it is important to understand what those views are. This paper, in collaboration with the OECD and the Scottish water industry, presents the results of an online (n= 500) and face-to-face laboratory (n= 100) study that utilised experimental behavioural science to explore how the provision and presentation of future price change information influences Scottish citizens’ acceptance of water price changes. Participants were asked to rate different patterns of price rises for their water charges. The pattern, presentation, magnitude of price rises and the provision of additional cost information (designed to simplify the calculations of future costs) was manipulated across tasks and participants. Results from this study suggest that Scottish citizens are generally accepting of price rises in the short and medium terms. However, the patterns of price rises, and the way in which information is presented, can influence these attitudes, suggesting that consumers do not always accurately integrate sequential price rises over time. Findings from this study are designed to inform the regulatory process of the Scottish water industry and highlight the potential role of behavioural science in regulation more generally

Smart choices? An experimental study of smart meters and time-of-use tariffs in Ireland. ESRI WP633, July 2019

The introduction of smart technology and dynamic tariffs (such as time-of-use tariffs) provides multiple potential benefits for electricity markets. However, time-of-use tariffs represent an additional complexity for consumer tariff choices in electricity markets. How well consumers may choose between different types of tariffs, and whether certain tools can improve these choices, are therefore important questions for energy regulators and policy makers. This paper presents the results of an exploratory study that used experimental behavioural science to explore the issue of consumer choice in electricity markets for time-of-use tariffs. A representative sample of consumers (n= 145) were given information about smart meters and time-of-use tariffs. Attitudes towards smart meters and comprehension and choice quality between different types of electricity tariffs (judged against participants’ own perceptions of their electricity usage) was measured through a sequence of experimental tasks. Findings suggest that a general aversion to time-of-use tariffs may lead to sub-optimal choices between different types of tariffs. Participants were also asked to choose between different priced time-of-use tariffs via an experimental price comparison site. Tools which facilitate personalised estimated costs were shown to significantly improve decision-making between such tariffs. Potential policy implications, in light of these findings, are discussed

Interventions to increase physical activity in disadvantaged communities: A review of behavioural mechanisms. ESRI Working Paper No. 646 December 2019

Physical inactivity is now a significant driver of health and social inequalities among socioeconomically disadvantaged communities and poses a major challenge to policymakers, worldwide. Although a vast amount of research has focused on designing and evaluating interventions to increase physical activity, there remains little consensus on which interventions are likely to work. In this narrative review, we build on previous reviews by not only examining what interventions tend to work but by trying to understand why certain interventions tend to work, while others do not, through the lens of behavioural science. We present a behavioural framework through which the existing body of physical activity research could be viewed, in order to identify potentially effective mechanisms that would be likely to work in their intended domain. Our analysis finds that while there is evidence that the physical and educational environment matter for increasing levels of physical activity, interventions are more likely to be successful where they involve a social component. We conclude that a behaviourally informed physical activity intervention would thus employ a set of focused educational and socially-mediated behavioural mechanisms, within an appropriate physical environment

Using behavioural science to help fight the coronavirus. ESRI Working Paper No. 656 March 2020

This paper summarises useful evidence from behavioural science for fighting the COVID-19 outbreak. It is based on an extensive literature search of relevant behavioural interventions and studies of crises. The findings aim to be useful not only to government and public authorities, but to organisations, workplaces and households. Seven issues are covered: (1) Evidence on handwashing shows that education and information are not enough. Placing hand sanitisers and colourful signage in central locations (e.g. directly beyond doors, canteen entrances, the middle of entrance halls and lift lobbies) increases use substantially. All organisations and public buildings could adopt this cheap and effective practice. (2) By contrast, we lack direct evidence on reducing face touching. Articulating new norms of acceptable behaviour (as for sneezing and coughing) and keeping tissues within arm’s reach could help. (3) Isolation is likely to cause some distress and mental health problems, requiring additional services. Preparedness, through activating social networks, making concrete isolation plans, and becoming familiar with the process, helps. These supports are important, as some people may try to avoid necessary isolation. (4) Public-spirited behaviour is most likely when there is clear and frequent communication, strong group identity, and social disapproval for those who don’t comply. This has implications for language, leadership and day-to-day social interaction. (5) Authorities often overestimate the risk of panic, but undesirable behaviours to watch out for are panic buying of key supplies and xenophobic responses. Communicating the social unacceptability of both could be part of a collective strategy. (6) Evidence links crisis communication to behaviour change. As well as speed, honesty and credibility, effective communication involves empathy and promoting useful individual actions and decisions. Using multiple platforms and tailoring message to subgroups are beneficial too. (7) Risk perceptions are easily biased. Highlighting single cases or using emotive language will increase bias. Risk is probably best communicated through numbers, with ranges to describe uncertainty, emphasising that numbers in the middle are more likely. Stating a maximum, e.g. “up to X thousand”, will bias public perception. A final section discusses possibilities for combining these insights, the need for simplicity, the role of the media, and possibilities for rapid pretesting

Essays on Attention in Individual Decision Making

A growing economic and psychology literature considers how changes in the attention given to situations and goods can affect consumers’ evaluations of these things. This thesis employs an experimental methodology to investigate the role of attention in explaining a number of irregularities in individual consumer-related decision making that have been established in the behavioural and experimental economic literature: choice effects and order effects. Chapter One presents a novel experimental design to test the different role of choice effects on the valuation of consumable goods when participants assume the roles of buyers and sellers, measuring the effect of choice on the well-known willingness-to-accept- willingness-to-pay disparity. Chapter Two utilises an experimental design to disentangle a number of potential attention-based order effects to explain surprising findings of order effects in Chapter One, where valuations for goods in earlier tasks were significantly higher than for goods valued in later tasks. Chapter Three presents another novel experimental design to capture the effect of choice on willingness-to-donate to charitable causes. Chapter Four takes this experimental design, and measures the effect of choice on consumable goods. A number of interesting results are found within these papers. Evidence of the positive effect of choice is found in Chapters One, Three and Four, consistent with theories of attention. Chapter Two finds evidence that participants give reduced attention to both the general experimental design of later tasks and the specific goods they value in these later tasks. This provides a novel explanation of the causes of order effects. Together, the papers of this thesis show that attention can explain how individuals evaluate goods differently in different consumer-related decision making situations, and that carefully considered experimental methodology can be used to better isolate these effects in laboratory settings

Motivating social distancing during the Covid-19 pandemic: An online experiment. ESRI Working Paper No. 658 April 2020

Social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic will save lives. We tested communication strategies to promote social distancing via an online experiment (N = 500) commissioned by Ireland’s Department of Health. A control group saw a current informational poster. Two treatment groups saw similar posters with messages that highlighted: (i) the risk of transmission to identifiable persons vulnerable to COVID-19; (ii) the exponential nature of transmission. We then measured judgements of behaviours previously identified by focus groups as “marginal” (meaning that people were not sure whether they were advisable, such meeting others outdoors, or visiting parents). We recorded intention to undertake behaviours and stated acceptability of behaviours. Our hypotheses, that both treatments would increase participants’ caution about marginal behaviours, were preregistered (i.e. lodged with an international organisation for open science before data collection). Results confirmed the hypotheses. The findings suggest that the thought of infecting vulnerable people or large numbers of people can motivate social distancing. This has implications for communications strategies. The stud

Moving well-being well: evidence and background to the development of the MWBW physical literacy intervention for children

Operationalising physical literacy and generating meaningful, measurable empirical research will determine what physical literacy is and how it works. Recent research suggests that Irish adolescents are not displaying the attributes of physical literacy that would see them adopt and understand to value and take responsibility for engagement in physical activities for life (Belton et al, 2014). The purpose of this study was to develop from previous work by assessing the current level of physical literacy in Irish primary school children (5-13 years), with an intervention established following data collection and analysis. Cross-sectional data on Whiteheadian physical literacy constructs (Whitehead, 2010), physical activity levels (using self and proxy reports, and accelerometers), anthropometric characteristics, perception of body figure, well-being, and fundamental movement skill proficiency of 2098 children (53% male, 9.17 ± 2.04 years) were collected. Findings indicate that the majority of children (77.5%) did not achieve the fundamental movement skill proficiency expected for their age. Children above population average on self-efficacy and intrinsic motivation scales scored significantly higher on (p < 0.01) the gross motor quotient (GMQ; Ulrich, 2000) than those who fell below the population average. Regardless of their GMQ, children had a poor knowledge and understanding of why it is important to value and take responsibility for engagement in physical activities for life. In contrast to previous studies the intervention will not predominantly target low levels of physical activity as a primary outcome but will focus on affecting the constructs of physical literacy. Empirical research is one method of gaining a greater understanding of the concept of physical literacy and examining it helps to identify how a concept can be operationalised. Thus, when this intervention created the research team wanted an empirically supported intervention, yet a subtlety in maintaining the philosophical assumptions of physical literacy. Therefore, the majority of the intervention will follow a structure related with Epstein’s (1989) and Ames’ (1992) TARGET structures, with particular focus on the teachers’ efficacy

How much do survey estimates of compliance with COVID-19 advice depend on how the question is asked? ESRI Research Bulletin 202027 November 2020.

The ESRI’s Behavioural Research Unit undertook two controlled experiments to test whether survey estimates of public compliance with COVID-19 vary depending on how the survey questions are asked