20 research outputs found

    ‘Drivin' with your eyes closed’: Results from an international, blinded simulation experiment to evaluate spatial stock assessments

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    Spatial models enable understanding potential redistribution of marine resources associated with ecosystem drivers and climate change. Stock assessment platforms can incorporate spatial processes, but have not been widely implemented or simulation tested. To address this research gap, an international simulation experiment was organized. The study design was blinded to replicate uncertainty similar to a real-world stock assessment process, and a data-conditioned, high-resolution operating model (OM) was used to emulate the spatial dynamics and data for Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares). Six analyst groups developed both single-region and spatial stock assessment models using an assessment platform of their choice, and then applied each model to the simulated data. Results indicated that across all spatial structures and platforms, assessments were able to adequately recreate the population trends from the OM. Additionally, spatial models were able to estimate regional population trends that generally reflected the true dynamics from the OM, particularly for the regions with higher biomass and fishing pressure. However, a consistent population biomass scaling pattern emerged, where spatial models estimated higher population scale than single-region models within a given assessment platform. Balancing parsimony and complexity trade-offs were difficult, but adequate complexity in spatial parametrizations (e.g., allowing time- and age-variation in movement and appropriate tag mixing periods) was critical to model performance. We recommend expanded use of high-resolution OMs and blinded studies, given their ability to portray realistic performance of assessment models. Moreover, increased support for international simulation experiments is warranted to facilitate dissemination of methodology across organizations.Peer reviewe

    Spatial Overlap Between Forage Fishes and the Large Medusa \u3ci\u3eChrysaora fuscescens\u3c/i\u3e In the Northern California Current Region

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    As in many regions of the world, the shelf waters of the western United States have experienced large increases and high interannual variability in jellyfish populations in recent decades. The northern California Current (NCC) is a productive upwelling zone that is home to large populations of medusae, particularly during some years. Seasonal trawl surveys in the NCC over 13 yr have documented a substantial biomass of jellyfish consisting primarily of one species, the sea nettle Chrysaora fuscescens, with abundances generally peaking in late summer. Trophic overlap can be high in the NCC with planktivorous species such as Pacific sardines and herring that consume copepods and other zooplankton. In this study, we examine the spatial overlap and co-occurrence of C. fuscescens and Pacific herring Clupea pallasii, northern anchovy Engraulis mordax and Pacific sardine Sardinops sagax in the NCC using spatial analysis tools to determine the species that have the potential to be most affected by high jellyfish biomass and the geographic areas in which these interactions are likely to occur. Significant spatial overlap of C. fuscescens with these pelagic fishes occurred during certain months and years, although the results were highly variable. There was an overall negative relationship between the abundance of C. fuscescens and the catch of the 3 forage fishes for both June and September. End-to-end food web models show that jellyfish have a greater potential to affect production of pelagic forage fishes than the reverse

    The use of mesoscale eddies by juvenile loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the southwestern Atlantic.

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    Marine animals, such as turtles, seabirds and pelagic fishes, are observed to travel and congregate around eddies in the open ocean. Mesoscale eddies, large swirling ocean vortices with radius scales of approximately 50-100 km, provide environmental variability that can structure these populations. In this study, we investigate the use of mesoscale eddies by 24 individual juvenile loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence region. The influence of eddies on turtles is assessed by collocating the turtle trajectories to the tracks of mesoscale eddies identified in maps of sea level anomaly. Juvenile loggerhead sea turtles are significantly more likely to be located in the interiors of anticyclones in this region. The distribution of surface drifters in eddy interiors reveals no significant association with the interiors of cyclones or anticyclones, suggesting higher prevalence of turtles in anticyclones is a result of their behavior. In the southern portion of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence region, turtle swimming speed is significantly slower in the interiors of anticyclones, when compared to the periphery, suggesting that these turtles are possibly feeding on prey items associated with anomalously low near-surface chlorophyll concentrations observed in those features

    Sea Turtle Bycatch Mitigation in U.S. Longline Fisheries

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    Capture of sea turtles in longline fisheries has been implicated in population declines of loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) turtles. Since 2004, United States (U.S.) longline vessels targeting swordfish and tunas in the Pacific and regions in the Atlantic Ocean have operated under extensive fisheries regulations to reduce the capture and mortality of endangered and threatened sea turtles. We analyzed 20+ years of longline observer data from both ocean basins during periods before and after the regulations to assess the effectiveness of the regulations. Using generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs), we investigated relationships between the probability of expected turtle interactions and operational components such as fishing location, hook type, bait type, sea surface temperature, and use of light sticks. GAMMs identified a two to three-fold lower probability of expected capture of loggerhead and leatherback turtle bycatch in the Atlantic and Pacific when circle hooks are used (vs. J hook). Use of fish bait (vs. squid) was also found to significantly reduce the capture probability of loggerheads in both ocean basins, and for leatherbacks in the Atlantic only. Capture probabilities are lowest when using a combination of circle hook and fish bait. Influences of light sticks, hook depth, geographic location, and sea surface temperature are discussed specific to species and regions. Results confirmed that in two U.S.-managed longline fisheries, rates of sea turtle bycatch significantly declined after the regulations. In the Atlantic (all regions), rates declined by 40 and 61% for leatherback and loggerhead turtles, respectively, after the regulations. Within the NED area alone, where additional restrictions include a large circle hook (18/0) and limited use of squid bait, rates declined by 64 and 55% for leatherback and loggerhead turtles, respectively. Gains were even more pronounced for the Pacific shallow set fishery, where mean bycatch rates declined by 84 and 95%, for leatherback and loggerhead turtles, respectively, for the post-regulation period. Similar management approaches could be used within regional fisheries management organizations to reduce capture of sea turtles and to promote sustainable fisheries on a global scale
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