Virtual outreach: economic evaluation of joint teleconsultations for patients referred by their general practitioner for a specialist opinion

Objectives To test the hypotheses that, compared with conventional outpatient consultations, joint teleconsultation (virtual outreach) would incur no increased costs to the NHS, reduce costs to patients, and reduce absences from work by patients and their carers.Design Cost consequences study alongside randomised controlled trial.Setting Two hospitals in London and Shrewsbury and 29 general practices in inner London and Wales.Participants 3170 patients identified; 2094 eligible for inclusion and willing to participate. 1051 randomised to virtual outreach and 1043 to standard outpatient appointments.Main outcome measures NHS costs, patient costs, health status (SF-12), time spent attending index consultation, patient satisfaction.Results Overall six month costs were greater for the virtual outreach consultations (pound724 per patient) than for conventional outpatient appointments (pound625): difference in means pound99 ($162; is not an element of138) (95% confidence interval pound10 to pound187, P=0.03). if the analysis is restricted to resource items deemed "attributable" to the index consultation, six month costs were still greater for virtual outreach: difference in means pound108 (pound73 to pound142, P < 0.0001). In both analyses the index consultation accounted for the excess cost. Savings to patients in terms of costs and time occurred in both centres: difference in mean total patient cost 8 pound (5 pound to 10 pound, P < 0.0001). Loss of productive time was less in the virtual outreach group: difference in mean cost pound11 (pound10 to pound12, P < 0.0001).Condusion The main hypothesis that virtual outreach would be cost neutral is rejected, but the hypotheses that costs to patients and losses in productivity would be lower are supported

Real world experience of response to pirfenidone in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a two centre retrospective study.

Introduction: Pirfenidone has been shown to reduce the decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) compared to placebo in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Previous studies have suggested that patients with a more rapid decline in FVC during the period before starting pirfenidone experience the greatest benefit from treatment. The purpose of this retrospective observational study was to investigate the response to pirfenidone in IPF patients, comparing two groups stratified by the annual rate of decline in FVC % predicted prior to treatment. Methods: Using the rate of decline in FVC % predicted in the 12 months prior to pirfenidone, patients were stratified into slow (<5%) or rapid (≥5%) decliner groups. Comparisons in the lung function response to pirfenidone in these two groups were performed. Results: Pirfenidone resulted in no statistically significant reduction in the median annual rate of decline in FVC or FVC % predicted. In the rapid decliners, pirfenidone significantly reduced the median (IQR) annual rate of decline in FVC % predicted (-8.7 (-14.2 - -7.0) %/yr vs 2.0 (-7.1 - 6.0) %/yr; n=17; p<0.01). In the slow decliners, pirfenidone did not reduce the median (IQR) annual rate of decline in FVC % predicted (-1.3 (-3.2 - 1.3) %/yr vs -5.0 (-8.3 - -0.35) %/yr; n=17; p=0.028). Conclusions: We demonstrate the greater net effect of pirfenidone in IPF patients declining rapidly. We suggest that using an annual rate of decline in FVC of <5% and ≥5% may be useful in counselling patients with regard to pirfenidone treatment

Sample size calculations based on a difference in medians for positively skewed outcomes in health care studies

Background: In healthcare research, outcomes with skewed probability distributions are common. Sample size calculations for such outcomes are typically based on estimates on a transformed scale (e.g. log) which may sometimes be difficult to obtain. In contrast, estimates of median and variance on the untransformed scale are generally easier to pre-specify. The aim of this paper is to describe how to calculate a sample size for a two group comparison of interest based on median and untransformed variance estimates for log-normal outcome data. Methods: A log-normal distribution for outcome data is assumed and a sample size calculation approach for a two-sample t-test that compares log-transformed outcome data is demonstrated where the change of interest is specified as difference in median values on the untransformed scale. A simulation study is used to compare the method with a non-parametric alternative (Mann-Whitney U test) in a variety of scenarios and the method is applied to a real example in neurosurgery. Results: The method attained a nominal power value in simulation studies and was favourable in comparison to a Mann-Whitney U test and a two-sample t-test of untransformed outcomes. In addition, the method can be adjusted and used in some situations where the outcome distribution is not strictly log-normal. Conclusions: We recommend the use of this sample size calculation approach for outcome data that are expected to be positively skewed and where a two group comparison on a log-transformed scale is planned. An advantage of this method over usual calculations based on estimates on the log-transformed scale is that it allows clinical efficacy to be specified as a difference in medians and requires a variance estimate on the untransformed scale. Such estimates are often easier to obtain and more interpretable than those for log-transformed outcomes

Magnetic Resonance-Augmented Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing Comprehensively Assessing Exercise Intolerance in Children with Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND: Conventional cardiopulmonary exercise testing can objectively measure exercise intolerance but cannot provide comprehensive evaluation of physiology. This requires additional assessment of cardiac output and arteriovenous oxygen content difference. We developed magnetic resonance (MR)–augmented cardiopulmonary exercise testing to achieve this goal and assessed children with right heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: Healthy controls (n=10) and children with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH; n=10) and repaired tetralogy of Fallot (n=10) underwent MR-augmented cardiopulmonary exercise testing. All exercises were performed on an MR-compatible ergometer, and oxygen uptake was continuously acquired using a modified metabolic cart. Simultaneous cardiac output was measured using a real-time MR flow sequence and combined with oxygen uptake to calculate arteriovenous oxygen content difference. Peak oxygen uptake was significantly lower in the PAH group (12.6±1.31 mL/kg per minute; P=0.01) and trended toward lower in the tetralogy of Fallot group (13.5±1.29 mL/kg per minute; P=0.06) compared with controls (16.7±1.37 mL/kg per minute). Although tetralogy of Fallot patients had the largest increase in cardiac output, they had lower resting (3±1.2 L/min per m2) and peak (5.3±1.2 L/min per m2) values compared with controls (resting 4.3±1.2 L/min per m2 and peak 6.6±1.2 L/min per m2) and PAH patients (resting 4.5±1.1 L/min per m2 and peak 5.9±1.1 L/min per m2). Both the PAH and tetralogy of Fallot patients had blunted exercise–induced increases in arteriovenous oxygen content difference. However, only the PAH patients had significantly reduced peak values (6.9±1.3 mlO2/100 mL) compared with controls (8.4±1.4 mlO2/100 mL; P=0.005). CONCLUSIONS: MR-augmented cardiopulmonary exercise testing is feasible in both healthy children and children with cardiac disease. Using this novel technique, we have demonstrated abnormal exercise patterns in oxygen uptake, cardiac output, and arteriovenous oxygen content difference

Sex-Specific Differences in Shoaling Affect Parasite Transmission in Guppies

Background: Individuals have to trade-off the costs and benefits of group membership during shoaling behaviour. Shoaling can increase the risk of parasite transmission, but this cost has rarely been quantified experimentally. Guppies (Poecilia reticulata) are a model system for behavioural studies, and they are commonly infected by gyrodactylid parasites, notorious fish pathogens that are directly transmitted between guppy hosts. Methodology/Principal Findings:Parasite transmission in single sex shoals of male and female guppies were observed using an experimental infection of Gyrodactylus turnbulli. Parasite transmission was affected by sex-specific differences in host behaviour, and significantly more parasites were transmitted when fish had more frequent and more prolonged contact with each other. Females shoaled significantly more than males and had a four times higher risk to contract an infection. Conclusions/Significance: Intersexual differences in host behaviours such as shoaling are driven by differences in natural and sexual selection experienced by both sexes. Here we show that the potential benefits of an increased shoaling tendency are traded off against increased risks of contracting an infectious parasite in a group-living species

A proof of concept pilot trial of probiotics in symptomatic oral lichen planus (CABRIO)

OBJECTIVE: To preliminary evaluate the clinical effects of probiotics in individuals with symptomatic oral lichen planus and the possible mechanisms of action. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A group of 30 individuals with symptomatic oral lichen planus were recruited in a randomised double-blind parallel group controlled (1:1) proof-of-concept pilot trial of probiotic VSL#3 vs placebo. Efficacy outcomes included changes in pain numeric rating scale, oral disease severity score and the chronic oral mucosal disease questionnaire. Adverse effects, home diary and withdrawals were assessed as feasibility outcomes. Mechanistic outcomes included changes in salivary and serum levels of CXCL10 and IFN-γ and in oral microbial composition. RESULTS: The probiotic VSL#3 was safe and well tolerated. We observed no statistically significant change in pain, disease activity, quality of life, serum/salivary CXCL10 or oral microbial composition with respect to placebo. Salivary IFN-γ levels demonstrate a trend for a reduced level in the active group (p = 0.082) after 30 days of probiotic consumption. CONCLUSIONS: The present proof-of-concept study provides some weak not convincing indication of biological and clinical effects of probiotic VSL#3 in individuals with painful oral lichen planus. Further research in this field is needed, with the current study providing useful information to the design of future clinical trials

New evidence on Allyn Young's style and influence as a teacher

This paper publishes the hitherto unpublished correspondence between Allyn Abbott Young's biographer Charles Blitch and 17 of Young's former students or associates. Together with related biographical and archival material, the paper shows the way in which this adds to our knowledge of Young's considerable influence as a teacher upon some of the twentieth century's greatest economists. The correspondents are as follows: James W Angell, Colin Clark, Arthur H Cole, Lauchlin Currie, Melvin G de Chazeau, Eleanor Lansing Dulles, Howard S Ellis, Frank W Fetter, Earl J Hamilton, Seymour S Harris, Richard S Howey, Nicholas Kaldor, Melvin M Knight, Bertil Ohlin, Geoffrey Shepherd, Overton H Taylor, and Gilbert Walker