Egyenlőtlenség és gazdaság: hogyan hatnak egymásra? = The interconnection between inequality and economic growth

iskolázottságon, az egészségen, vagy a fogyasztási és megtakarítási szokásokon keresztül. Ezek a mechanizmusok sok – de nem minden – esetben az egyenlőtlenség káros hatásaira mutatnak rá. A gazdaság is hatással van a társadalmi egyenlőtlenségre, a kapcsolat tehát komplex és nem egyirányú. Az összefüggés részletes adatokon alapuló megértésére először a későbbi Nobel-díjas Simon Kuznets tett kísérletet. Mindenesetre a nevéhez köthető görbét – miszerint a gazdaság növekedésével párhuzamosan először az egyenlőtlenség is növekedik, majd csak később mérséklődik – mára meghaladottnak tartják, az elmúlt évek kutatásai ugyanis többféle fejlődési pálya meglétére engednek következtetni.2 A pénzügyi válság és az egyenlőtlenség elmúlt évtizedekben érzékelt változásai nemcsak magára az egyenlőtlenség kérdésére irányították rá a figyelmet, hanem a közgazdasági modellek ezzel kapcsolatos hiányosságaira is. A gazdaság és az egyenlőtlenség kapcsolatának vizsgálatán túl, így jelen cikk szót ejt a jövedelmi/ vagyoni eloszlás makroökonómiában betöltött szerepéről is. = The relationship between inequality and economic growth is complex and two-way. The body of literature attempting to understand the economic impact of inequality has uncovered a number of channels – such as education, health, consumption or savings behaviour – and for many but not all mechanisms tended to find a negative impact. Efforts to determine the overall effect have, however, been inconclusive, not least because inequality itself is not immune from economic development either. Nobel prize-winner Simon Kuznets is generally credited with being the first scholar to attempt to understand the relationship in a detailed, data-driven manner. The curve bearing his name, which shows an inverse U shaped relationship between economic growth and inequality, is by now widely considered as outdated or at least not universally applicable. The financial crisis and the preceeding growing inequality have not only drawn attention to the importance of inequality but also to the related shortcomings of macroeconomic modelling. This article will therefore provide an overview of income and wealth distribution within such models in addition to exploring the relationship between inequality and economic growth based on theoretical and empirical literature

Climate Change and Residential Mortgage Lenders [védés előtt]

The dissertation studies the linkage between residential mortgage lending and local climate projections by directly linking future climate projections to current lender behaviour, using climate data new to the finance literature. The topic has hitherto received little attention in the scientific climate finance discourse, with the existing research focussing on sea level rise risk only or reactions to natural disasters or extreme weather. Yet there are a number of reasons why the topic is important. First, US mortgages are crucial to financial cycles, and issues in the mortgage market can quickly affect other credit markets and cross borders. Evidence shows that the US real estate market has not fully incorporated climate change. Sudden risk reassessments could, therefore, lead to financial instability and reduced credit availability. Second, local climate prospects coupled with lenders' practices also affect social inequality. Third, climate risk mitigation through securitisation to government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) has a number of policy implications. Fourth, the financial sector has an indirect influence on climate change, highlighting the need for lenders to consider environmental impacts in their decisions. The two datasets that form the cornerstone of the study are: i) climate change projections data from a downscaled version of global climate models that are also used in the UN IPCC reports and ii) HMDA mortgage data, created by Congress which is the most comprehensive publicly available database for US mortgages. The dissertation presents evidence in three case studies. Two have already been published in journals (one of which is a leading Q1 journal in the area of climate change). Case study 1: Loan amounts and rejection rates – extreme heat Research questions: How does the volume of mortgages originated in the US counties that are most vulnerable to future heat waves, compare to such counties' share of land area, economic importance and population? What do we know about supply and demand effects in lending patterns? Methodology: To answer the second question, I construct simple denials rates (Duan and Li, 2019) and the sophisticated denials index (Key and Mulder, 2020). The latter is a measure of how application denials have evolved across counties and years, beyond the known loan-level characteristics. Results: the mortgage share of areas exposed to future heatwaves is higher than their land share, and this appears to be linked to their greater economic activity and higher population. In fact, lenders deny slightly more loan applications in these areas, which appears to suggest that it is not a greater lending appetite that is behind the higher lending volumes. Case study 2: Interest rates and loan terms – extreme heat Research questions: Are interest rates higher and loan terms shorter in areas that are more exposed to climate change, controlling for other variables? Do we see additional concerns reflected in mortgage characteristics at the extremes of projected levels of hot days? Do climate change concerns appear more pronounced in the mortgage rates of certain lenders? Methodology: Following the literature, in the baseline specification I use a linear regression equation with OLS estimation for the rate spread, and a probit model for the probability of a sub-standard loan term. As a robustness check, I follow the IV/2SLS approach (Ambrose et al., 2018). Results: Considering a range of controls and potential sources of bias, I find that larger projected increases during the coming decades in the number of hot days are associated with higher rate spreads and an increased probability that loan terms are shorter than the standard 30 years. In counties projected to experience an extreme number of hot days, both the rate spread and the probability of a short loan term are higher still. It is lending from non-banks, rather than banks, that appears sensitive to the changing climate. Case study 3: Interest rates and loan terms – extreme heat, drought and flooding Research questions: Are GSE onselling rates (the proportion of originated mortgages under GSEs’ conforming limit sold on to GSEs, controlling for other factors) higher in areas most exposed to climate change? Has this relationship changed in the past few years? Is there evidence of firm heterogeneities in GSE on-selling activity with respect to climate change exposure? Methodology: The main methodology applies a difference-in-difference style estimator with the synthetic control method for matching. For robustness I also apply nearest neighbour matching, pooled OLS and FE panel regression. Results: Both banks and independent mortgage companies have sold proportionately more loans to GSEs in areas that are most exposed to the changing climate – based on my climate change indicator encompassing risks of extreme heat, drought and flood. The observed relationship can be traced back to 2013 but is more marked since 2016 when granular climate change projections became public. Some implications of the dissertation/ further research avenues: Some risk incorporation has happened, it would be useful to ascertain whether the extent of it is sufficient. Banks, in particular, are worth focussing on from a regulatory standpoint. It would be useful to investigate who is ultimately backing the climate risk transferred to GSEs – the taxpayer, households in areas less exposed to the risk or others. Incorporate the the financial stability implications of residential mortgage lenders' climate change exposure in economic models. Policy implications of how to manage the social impact of changing conditions in housing financing in the most climate-exposed areas

Forrósodó jelzáloghitelezés és jegybanki lehetőségek

A globális klímaváltozásból fakadó szélsőségesen meleg időszakok a gazdaság számos területén éreztetik negatív hatásukat. Tanulmányunkban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy az amerikai jelzáloghitelek mekkora része megy a jövőbeni hőhullámoknak leginkább kitett területekre, és milyen jegybanki, felügyelőhatósági lépések mérsékelhetik az ebből fakadó kockázatot. Azt látjuk eredményeink alapján, hogy a hőségnek a jövőben várhatóan leginkább kitett területekre arányaiban több hitel áramlik. A népesség és a gazdasági teljesítmény relatíve magasabb ezeken a területeken, így a hitelezési döntéseknél a klímakockázati szempont háttérbe szorul. A hitelezők ugyanakkor arányaiban enyhén több hitelkérelmet utasítanak el a várhatóan legmelegebbé váló megyékben. A klímacélokat támogató jegybanki és felügyelőhatósági intézkedések kulcsfontosságúak ezért. Ezek között jelenhetnek meg például – különösen a klímaváltozásnak kitett területekre vonatkozóan – a fenntartható építkezést támogató jegybanki eszközvásárlási programok, vagy a fedezetpolitika hasonló szempontok menti alakítása. A jegybanki intézkedések korlátai miatt is fontos a különféle hatóságok közötti koordináció

Analysis of joule heating of pork sausages

Joule heating, also called as ohmic heating, is a promising technology for cooking. It is expected to be rapid and economic since no transfer medium is required, electrical energy is directly affecting foodstuff. Additionally, cooking is induced by current stream and starts inside food. This reverse direction compared to the traditional technique needs different considerations, such as cold point calculation and expected final surface temperature. Viennese type smoked pork sausages were acquired in retail. Adjustable AC power supply of 0-240 V (1000 VA, 50 Hz) was applied to control current and voltage. Infrared thermometer was used to record temperature data at three positions along the sample surface. Thermal images were captured during cooking with the spectral range of 8-14 μm. Both infrared thermometer and thermovision camera had the same accuracy of ±2%. Two parallel samples were cooked during experiments. Measurements were performed in 3 replicates. Three levels of voltage were applied (50 V, 125 V and 200 V). Low level was considered inefficient and too slow, while high level did burn meat around electrode easily. Kinetics of current and surface temperature were analyzed and compared. Based on the temperature change, optimal cooking protocol can be suggested in order to warm up quickly and cook safe food without burning and decreasing its value. Finite element calculations were performed using software COMLSOL Multiphysics®. According to the results, Joule heating treatment is an effective way of cooking and easy to control. In spite of the fact that technique is investigated from different aspects, there are still open questions and issues before deployment into everyday practice