Morocco Special Report - February 13, 2009

This report is the first of a series of bulletins produced through a collaborative effort of Joint Research Centre and National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) of MoroccoJRC.DDG.H.4-Monitoring agricultural resource

Agrometeorological forecasting

Agrometeorological forecasting covers all aspects of forecasting in agrometeorology. Therefore, the scope of agrometeorological forecasting very largely coincides with the scope of agrometeorology itself. All on-farm and regional agrometeorological planning implies some form of impact forecasting, at least implicitly, so that decision-support tools and forecasting tools largely overlap. In the current chapter, the focus is on crops, but attention is also be paid to sectors that are often neglected by the agrometeorologist, such as those occurring in plant and animal protection. In addition, the borders between meteorological forecasts for agriculture and agrometeorological forecasts are not always clear. Examples include the use of weather forecasts for farm operations such as spraying pesticides or deciding on trafficability in relation to adverse weather. Many forecast issues by various national institutions (weather, but also commodity prices or flood warnings) are vital to the farming community, but they do not constitute agrometeorological forecasts. (Modified From the introduction of the chapter: Scope of agrometeorological forecasting)JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

Assessing the CO2 fertilization effect on cereal yield in Morocco using the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model driven by Med-CORDEX projections

In Morocco, the economic weight of agriculture is so high that any temporal trend or seasonality change in the climate will immediately affect the country economy, particularly that involving crops used as the basis of food security like cereals. It is therefore necessary to develop knowledge about CO2 fertilization effect on cereal crops and strengthen forecasting systems for predicting the impacts of climate change.</p><p>Dynamic Vegetation Models can be used to investigate and interpret vegetation trends related to increasing levels of atmospheric CO2. In fact, an increase in CO2 concentration causes an elevated photosynthesis rate, resulting in more energy and thus a quicker development of the plant. On the other hand, it reduces the amount of water needed to produce an equivalent amount of biomass. Hence in dry areas like Morocco, it may significantly alter future crop production and reduce the negative effects of climate change on agricultural yields.</p><p>CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) is a dynamic vegetation model developed to study the role of vegetation in the global carbon cycle and to study vegetation distribution in the past, the present, and in the future. The model is composed of several modules dealing with soil hydrology, photosynthesis and stomatal regulation, carbon allocation and biomass growth, soil and litter carbon dynamics, and natural vegetation fires. CARAIB was improved by the addition of the crop module. In fact, crop growth is driven by photosynthetic activity but differs on the use of phenological stages. Two stages are defined (from sowing to emergence, and from emergence to harvesting). These stages are completed when a prescribed level of heat is reached based on the growing degree days. The yield is then estimated from net primary productivity using a harvest index.</p><p>The simulations are performed across all Morocco. The three main cereal crops simulated include soft wheat, durum wheat, and barley, they are grown in all agro-ecological zones. The simulation of the recent period was dedicated to the validation of the crop module over Morocco. For temporal and spatial validation, we used yearly yield data collected between 1997 and 2017 at the scale of the smallest territorial unit which is the municipality. To assess the impact of CO2 concentration on cereal yield, we are using interpolated and bias-corrected fields from a regional climate model (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative run at a spatial resolution of 12 km driven by two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and three horizons (2020-2040, 2041–2060 and 2081–2100). Modeling is conducted twice, one with an annually adapted concentration according to the RCPs, and another one with fixed concentration to separate the influence of CO2 from that of the other input variables.</p&gt

Application de la télédétection optique et RADAR pour contribuer à une gestion hydrique efficiente de la céréaliculture des périmètres irrigués au Maroc : Cas du périmètre irrigué du Tadla.

« l’Application de la télédétection optique et radar pour contribuer à la gestion de la céréaliculture dans les périmètres irrigués : cas du périmètre irrigué de Tadla ». Cette présentation est un résumé de projet de thèse doctorale qui vise à contribuer à une gestion synoptique du périmètre irrigué grâce aux outils de la télédétection spatiale optique et radar combinés à la modélisation agrométéorologique

Cereal yield forecasting in Morocco using the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model driven by HadGEM2-AO projections

Food security, in Morocco as in many parts of the world, depends heavily on cereal production which fluctuates relying on weather conditions. In fact, Morocco has a production system for cereals which is dominated by rainfed. It is therefore necessary to further develop knowledge about climate change and strengthen forecasting systems for predicting the impacts of climate change. Our research, funded by a bilateral project of Wallonie-Bruxelles International, aims to study the response of cereal production to climate change, using the dynamic vegetation model CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) developed within the Unit for Modelling of Climate and Biogeochemical Cycles (UMCCB) of the University of Liège. This spatial model includes crops and natural vegetation and may react dynamically to land use changes. Originally constructed to study vegetation dynamics and carbon cycle, it includes coupled hydrological, biogeochemical, biogeographical and fire modules. These modules respectively describe the exchange of water between the atmosphere, the soil and the vegetation, the photosynthetic production and the evolution of carbon stocks and fluxes in this vegetation-soil system. For crops, a specific module describes basic management parameters (sowing, harvest, rotation) and phenological phases. The simulations are performed across all Morocco using different input data. The three main cereal crops simulated include soft wheat, durum wheat and barley, they are grown in all provinces and all agro-ecological zones. Regarding climatic inputs, we’re using two sets of data: the first one is interpolated and bias-corrected fields from the climate model HadGEM2-AO for the historical period (1990-2005), in addition to three different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from 2005 to 2100. The second one is high resolution (30 arc sec) gridded climate data derived from WorldClim combined with interpolated anomalies from CRU (Climatic Research Unit) over the historical period 1990 to 2018. After obtaining preliminary results for the past period, and in order to improve the prediction using the field data which are the observed yields, we performed a sensitivity analysis. We used the One-at-a-time (OAT) approach by moving one input variable, keeping others at their baseline (nominal) values, then, returning the variable to its nominal value, then repeating for each of the other inputs in the same way. Sensitivity may then be measured by monitoring changes in the output, using linear regression. The inputs studied are the initial value of carbon pool, leaf C/N ratio, water stress, sowing date, GDD harvest, stomatal conductance parameters, specific leaf area, and rooting depth

Risk management in agricultural water use

Water availability for agricultural activities will decrease in the twenty-first century. As a consequence, agricultural water management will have to improve in order to meet two challenges: satisfy the needs of an increasing world population; and alleviate the climate change impacts. One way to improve agricultural water management consists of including the ‘risk’ notion as much as possible at the different decision levels of: farmers, farmer corporations and states or associations of states. These three decision levels will be analysed both for rainfed and irrigated agriculture. The poorest countries are those most subject to climate risks, the main risks in developing countries, because they too rarely possess the means to combat excesses or shortages of water during the plant growing period (irrigation schemes) and they cannot rely on crop insurance or other kinds of support to maintain their income in bad years. Consequently, in order to ensure a minimum level of income, farmers will prefer low input practices that provide a low but stable production without involving too much investment or cash. Where possible they will diversify their production. This paper first defines hazard, vulnerability and risk in the particular context of drought assessment and prediction. It then presents some strategies to reduce water risk in three major categories: (1) more irrigated agricultural land in an efficient manner; (2) increased and better managed pasture and forest areas to benefit from otherwise lost water by evaporation process, increasing animal productivity; (3) well water managed dryland agriculture. In dryland agriculture, some additional public measures are necessary, mainly drought risk insurance and early warning systems, in order to promote investment in drought-prone environments and to provide tools for decision-making. The adoption of an efficient water use management of rainfall and irrigation will ensure food security, contribute to poverty alleviation, and free water for non-agricultural uses. The paper presents some new promising techniques and approaches. Finally, it discusses the sharing of risk between the different decision levels and launches some ideas to serve as discussion points in the electronic conference

Maroc Rapport Spécial - 13 02 2009

Le présent rapport est le premier d'une série dans le cadre de la collaboration entre le Joint Research Centre de l'Union Européenne et l'Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) du Maroc.JRC.DDG.H.4-Monitoring agricultural resource

Utilisation d'un système expert pour la cartographie de la dégradation des parcours arides

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