Emergency Response Planning for Providing Drinking Water in Urban Areas after Natural Disasters using Multi Criteria Decision Making Methods

9 p.International audienceThe impact of a natural disaster can cause contamination of water, breaking pipelines, structural damages, water shortages, and collapse of the entire system. In emergency or disaster situations water supply are imperative for the rapid return to normalcy. In this paper, water supply planning for emergency response after natural disasters has been studied. Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) has been used as a tool for incorporating decision maker preferences for water supply planning in emergency conditions. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a well-known MCDM method was utilized for prioritizing water resources alternatives. For this purpose, the quality and quantity of water for living in emergency conditions after natural disasters were reviewed. Different water resources alternatives which are possible to use for emergency response were identified. Water resources availability, water quality, cost, affected population and delay in service were used as criteria for ranking the water resources alternatives. The proposed methodology was used for Pardis City in the vicinity of Tehran metropolitan in Iran, which is highly vulnerable to earthquakes and floods. The developed methodology provides an opportunity for further incorporation of decision makers' preferences in preparing an Emergency Response Plan (ERP) to improve respond to provide necessary water in disaster situation

Environmental risk assessment of wetland ecosystems using Bayesian belief networks

Wetlands are valuable natural capital and sensitive ecosystems facing significant risks from anthropogenic and climatic stressors. An assessment of the environmental risk levels for wetlands’ dynamic ecosystems can provide a better understanding of their current ecosystem health and functions. Different levels of environmental risk are defined by considering the categories of risk and the probability and severity of each in the environment. Determining environmental risk levels provides a general overview of ecosystem function. This mechanism increases the visibility of risk levels and their values in three distinct states (i.e., low, moderate, and high) associated with ecosystem function. The Bayesian belief network (BBN) is a novel tool for determining environmental risk levels and monitoring the effectiveness of environmental planning and management measures in reducing the levels of risk. This study develops a robust methodological framework for determining the overall level of risks based on a combination of varied environmental risk factors using the BBN model. The proposed model is adopted for a case study of Shadegan International Wetlands (SIWs), which consist of a series of Ramsar wetlands in the southwest of Iran with international ecological significance. A comprehensive list of parameters and variables contributing to the environmental risk for the wetlands and their relationships were identified through a review of literature and expert judgment to develop an influence diagram. The BBN model is adopted for the case study location by determining the states of variables in the network and filling the probability distribution tables. The environmental risk levels for the SIWs are determined based on the results obtained at the output node of the BBN. A sensitivity analysis is performed for the BBN model. We proposed model-informed management strategies for wetland risk control. According to the BBN model results, the SIWs ecosystems are under threat from a high level of environmental risk. Prolonged drought has been identified as the primary contributor to the SIWs’ environmental risk levels

Vulnerability assessment of hydrological ecosystem services under future climate and land use change dynamics

Hydrological Ecosystem Services (HESs), as an important part of ecosystem services, are those services that depend on hydrological processes. HESs vulnerability assessment at the watershed scale is used to explore highly vulnerable areas for management and protection measures. This study aimed at developing a method for HESs vulnerability assessment and achieve a quantitative integrated index under future climate and land use change scenarios. We focused on three regulating HESs, including water flow regulation, erosion regulation, and local climate regulation (LC). An integrated model of Markov chain and automatic cells was used to predict land use changes. Future climate data were estimated using the Climate Change Toolkit (CCT). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was developed for HESs vulnerability assessment in the Taleghan Watershed in Iran. The model was calibrated by river discharge using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) and the Parallel Processing option. The results show that sub-watersheds with higher precipitation (PCP) and lower evapotranspiration (ET) are more efficient in water flow and local climate regulation. However, sub-watersheds with lower PCP and higher ET are more vulnerable to erosion. Changes in water flow regulation services and local climate regulation were more consistent with climate changes, and conversely, changes in erosion and sediment regulation services had a very high level of compliance with land use changes. The method applied in this study can easily be adapted to other regions to identify areas with more vulnerability and less resilience in improving the water and soil structure and function in the watershed

Analysis and modeling of safety parameters in the selection of optimal routes for emergency evacuation after the earthquake (Case study: 13 Aban neighborhood of Tehran)

Introduction : Earthquakes are imminent threats to urban areas of Iran, especially Tehran. They can cause extensive destructions and lead to heavy casualties. One of the most important aspects of disaster management after earthquake is the rapid transfer of casualties to emergency shelters. To expedite emergency evacuation process the optimal safe path method should be considered. To examine the safety of road networks and to determine the most optimal route at pre-earthquake phase, a series of parameters should be taken into account.   Methods : In this study, we employed a multi-criteria decision-making approach to determine and evaluate the effective safety parameters for selection of optimal routes in emergency evacuation after an earthquake.   Results: The relationship between the parameters was analyzed and the effect of each parameter was listed. A process model was described and a case study was implemented in the 13th Aban neighborhood ( Tehran’s 20th municipal district) . Then, an optimal path to safe places in an emergency evacuation after an earthquake in the 13th Aban neighborhood was selected.   Conclusion : Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), as the main model, was employed. Each parameter of the model was described. Also, the capabilities of GIS software such as layer coverage were used.     Keywords: Earthquake, emergency evacuation, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), crisis management, optimization, 13th Aban neighborhood of Tehra

Government management and overexploitation of groundwater resources: absence of local community initiatives in Ardabil plain-Iran

Although mismanagement of groundwater resources has resulted in their destruction over centuries, climate change is speeding up this process more than ever. On the one hand, urgent action by government bodies is needed to address the challenge. On the other hand, a vast body of literature proves that bottom-up collective action, although requiring a longer time period, is a better solution to manage such resources. This research aims to address this dilemma. The groundwater resource in Ardabil plain in Iran, which has long been managed solely through government intervention, has been chosen as a case study to explore the opportunities and limitations of managing a critically endangered area from a common pool resource perspective. Our study suggests that managing Ardabil groundwater resources should be conducted on two scales. The bottom-up institutional agreements should take place at village scale while the government should stay in charge of the overall organization at plain scale.Energy & Industr