The Wade Formula and the oil price fluctuation: An Optimal Control Theory approach

By considering the Wade Formula, we propose a model to study the evolution of the oil price per barrel. Our model shows that the policy of diversification of the energy is to be supported. This model is proposed to see how it is possible to control parameters so that the oil price should decrease

Application of geographically-weighted regression analysis to assess risk factors for malaria hotspots in Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site.

BACKGROUND: In Senegal, considerable efforts have been made to reduce malaria morbidity and mortality during the last decade. This resulted in a marked decrease of malaria cases. With the decline of malaria cases, transmission has become sparse in most Senegalese health districts. This study investigated malaria hotspots in Keur Soce sites by using geographically-weighted regression. Because of the occurrence of hotspots, spatial modelling of malaria cases could have a considerable effect in disease surveillance. METHODS: This study explored and analysed the spatial relationships between malaria occurrence and socio-economic and environmental factors in small communities in Keur Soce, Senegal, using 6 months passive surveillance. Geographically-weighted regression was used to explore the spatial variability of relationships between malaria incidence or persistence and the selected socio-economic, and human predictors. A model comparison of between ordinary least square and geographically-weighted regression was also explored. Vector dataset (spatial) of the study area by village levels and statistical data (non-spatial) on malaria confirmed cases, socio-economic status (bed net use), population data (size of the household) and environmental factors (temperature, rain fall) were used in this exploratory analysis. ArcMap 10.2 and Stata 11 were used to perform malaria hotspots analysis. RESULTS: From Jun to December, a total of 408 confirmed malaria cases were notified. The explanatory variables-household size, housing materials, sleeping rooms, sheep and distance to breeding site returned significant t values of -0.25, 2.3, 4.39, 1.25 and 2.36, respectively. The OLS global model revealed that it explained about 70 % (adjusted R(2) = 0.70) of the variation in malaria occurrence with AIC = 756.23. The geographically-weighted regression of malaria hotspots resulted in coefficient intercept ranging from 1.89 to 6.22 with a median of 3.5. Large positive values are distributed mainly in the southeast of the district where hotspots are more accurate while low values are mainly found in the centre and in the north. CONCLUSION: Geographically-weighted regression and OLS showed important risks factors of malaria hotspots in Keur Soce. The outputs of such models can be a useful tool to understand occurrence of malaria hotspots in Senegal. An understanding of geographical variation and determination of the core areas of the disease may provide an explanation regarding possible proximal and distal contributors to malaria elimination in Senegal

Efficacy and tolerability of four antimalarial combinations in the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Senegal

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In view of the high level of chloroquine resistance in many countries, WHO has recommended the use of combination therapy with artemisinin derivatives in the treatment of uncomplicated malaria due to <it>Plasmodium falciparum</it>. Four antimalarial drug combinations, artesunate plus amodiaquine (Arsucam^®), artesunate plus mefloquine (Artequin^®), artemether plus lumefantrine (Coartem^®; four doses and six doses), and amodiaquine plus sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine, were studied in five health districts in Senegal.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is a descriptive, analytical, open, randomized study to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of these four antimalarial combinations in the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria using the 2002 WHO protocol.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All drug combinations demonstrated good efficacy. On day 28, all combinations resulted in an excellent clinical and parasitological response rate of 100% after correction for PCR results, except for the four-dose artemether-lumefantrine regimen (96.4%). Follow-up of approximately 10% of each treatment group on day 42 demonstrated an efficacy of 100%.</p> <p>The combinations were well tolerated clinically and biologically. No unexpected side-effect was observed and all side-effects disappeared at the end of treatment. No serious side-effect requiring premature termination of treatment was observed.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The four combinations are effective and well-tolerated.</p

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection amongst children in Senegal: current prevalence and seroprotection level

Introduction: hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is highly endemic in Senegal. HBV vaccine of all children has been introduced in 1999 and included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization in 2004. The aim of this study was to assess the HBV prevalence and immunity status against HBV amongst children in Senegal. Methods: between March and August 2016, consecutive children aged from 6 months to 16 years old were recruited in outpatient department of three main children hospitals in Senegal. Serum samples were analyzed for HBV serology (HBsAg, HBcAb, HBsAb) using ARCHITECT analyzer. Children with HBsAb levels ≥ 10 IU/l) were considered as seroprotected against HBV. Results: during the study period, 295 children fulfilled the criteria for the study and were further analyzed. Three children were HBsAg positive giving a seroprevalence at 1.1% (95% CI: 0.2-3.3), 12/267 (4.5%, 95% CI=2.3-7.7) had positive HBcAb and 226/295 (76.6%, 71.4-81.3) had positive HBsAb including 191 (77.3%, 71.6-82.4) with isolated HBsAb related to previous active immunization. However only 165 children (56%, CI 50-62) had seroprotective HBsAb levels (HBsAb ≥ 10 UI/L) and 63 (21.4, 16.8-26) had a strong seroprotectiondefined by HBsAb ≥ 100 IU/L. Conclusion: our results suggest that although HBV prevalence has significantly decreased in children in Senegal following a better HBV vaccine coverage, the number of children correctly seroprotected is insufficient (56%). Assessing the levels of HBsAb and providing HBV vaccine boosters should be considered in children in Senegal

Effectiveness of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention in Children under Ten Years of Age in Senegal: A Stepped-Wedge Cluster-Randomised Trial.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention (SMC) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) plus amodiaquine (AQ), given each month during the transmission season, is recommended for children living in areas of the Sahel where malaria transmission is highly seasonal. The recommendation for SMC is currently limited to children under five years of age, but, in many areas of seasonal transmission, the burden in older children may justify extending this age limit. This study was done to determine the effectiveness of SMC in Senegalese children up to ten years of age. METHODS AND FINDINGS: SMC was introduced into three districts over three years in central Senegal using a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised design. A census of the population was undertaken and a surveillance system was established to record all deaths and to record all cases of malaria seen at health facilities. A pharmacovigilance system was put in place to detect adverse drug reactions. Fifty-four health posts were randomised. Nine started implementation of SMC in 2008, 18 in 2009, and a further 18 in 2010, with 9 remaining as controls. In the first year of implementation, SMC was delivered to children aged 3-59 months; the age range was then extended for the latter two years of the study to include children up to 10 years of age. Cluster sample surveys at the end of each transmission season were done to measure coverage of SMC and the prevalence of parasitaemia and anaemia, to monitor molecular markers of drug resistance, and to measure insecticide-treated net (ITN) use. Entomological monitoring and assessment of costs of delivery in each health post and of community attitudes to SMC were also undertaken. About 780,000 treatments were administered over three years. Coverage exceeded 80% each month. Mortality, the primary endpoint, was similar in SMC and control areas (4.6 and 4.5 per 1000 respectively in children under 5 years and 1.3 and 1.2 per 1000 in children 5-9 years of age; the overall mortality rate ratio [SMC: no SMC] was 0.90, 95% CI 0.68-1.2, p = 0.496). A reduction of 60% (95% CI 54%-64%, p < 0.001) in the incidence of malaria cases confirmed by a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and a reduction of 69% (95% CI 65%-72%, p < 0.001) in the number of treatments for malaria (confirmed and unconfirmed) was observed in children. In areas where SMC was implemented, incidence of confirmed malaria in adults and in children too old to receive SMC was reduced by 26% (95% CI 18%-33%, p < 0.001) and the total number of treatments for malaria (confirmed and unconfirmed) in these older age groups was reduced by 29% (95% CI 21%-35%, p < 0.001). One hundred and twenty-three children were admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of severe malaria, with 64 in control areas and 59 in SMC areas, showing a reduction in the incidence rate of severe disease of 45% (95% CI 5%-68%, p = 0.031). Estimates of the reduction in the prevalence of parasitaemia at the end of the transmission season in SMC areas were 68% (95% CI 35%-85%) p = 0.002 in 2008, 84% (95% CI 58%-94%, p < 0.001) in 2009, and 30% (95% CI -130%-79%, p = 0.56) in 2010. SMC was well tolerated with no serious adverse reactions attributable to SMC drugs. Vomiting was the most commonly reported mild adverse event but was reported in less than 1% of treatments. The average cost of delivery was US$0.50 per child per month, but varied widely depending on the size of the health post. Limitations included the low rate of mortality, which limited our ability to detect an effect on this endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: SMC substantially reduced the incidence of outpatient cases of malaria and of severe malaria in children, but no difference in all-cause mortality was observed. Introduction of SMC was associated with an overall reduction in malaria incidence in untreated age groups. In many areas of Africa with seasonal malaria, there is a substantial burden in older children that could be prevented by SMC. SMC in older children is well tolerated and effective and can contribute to reducing malaria transmission. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00712374

Evaluation of Two Strategies for Community-Based Safety Monitoring during Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention Campaigns in Senegal, Compared with the National Spontaneous Reporting System.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine has been introduced in 12 African countries. Additional strategies for safety monitoring are needed to supplement national systems of spontaneous reporting that are known to under represent the incidence of adverse reactions. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine if adverse event (AE) reporting could be improved using a smartphone application provided to village health workers, or by active follow-up using a symptom card provided to caregivers. METHODS: Two strategies to improve reporting of AEs during SMC campaigns were evaluated, in comparison with the national system of spontaneous reporting, in 11 health post areas in Senegal. In each health post, an average of approximately 4000 children under 10 years of age received SMC treatment each month for 3 months during the 2015 malaria transmission season-a total of 134,000 treatments. In three health posts (serving approximately 14,000 children), caregivers were encouraged to report any adverse reactions to the nurse at the health post or to a community health worker (CHW) in their village, who had been trained to use a smartphone application to report the event (enhanced spontaneous reporting). In two health posts (approximately 10,000 children), active follow-up of children at home was organized after each SMC campaign to ask about AEs that caregivers had been asked to record on a symptom card (active surveillance). Six health posts (approximately 23,000 children) followed the national system of spontaneous reporting using the national reporting (yellow) form. Each AE report was assessed by a panel to determine likely association with SMC drugs. RESULTS: The incidence of reported AEs was 2.4, 30.6, and 21.6 per 1000 children treated per month, using the national system, enhanced spontaneous reporting, and active surveillance, respectively. The most commonly reported symptoms were vomiting, fever, and abdominal pain. The incidence of vomiting, known to be caused by amodiaquine, was similar using both innovative methods (10/1000 in the first month, decreasing to 2.5/1000 in the third month). Despite increased surveillance, no serious adverse drug reactions were detected. CONCLUSION: Training CHWs in each village and health facility staff to report AEs using a mobile phone application led to much higher reporting rates than through the national system. This approach is feasible and acceptable, and could be further improved by strengthening laboratory investigation and the collection of control data immediately prior to SMC campaigns

Impact of combining intermittent preventive treatment with home management of malaria in children less than 10 years in a rural area of Senegal: a cluster randomized trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Current malaria control strategies recommend (i) early case detection using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and treatment with artemisinin combination therapy (ACT), (ii) pre-referral rectal artesunate, (iii) intermittent preventive treatment and (iv) impregnated bed nets. However, these individual malaria control interventions provide only partial protection in most epidemiological situations. Therefore, there is a need to investigate the potential benefits of integrating several malaria interventions to reduce malaria prevalence and morbidity.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A randomized controlled trial was carried out to assess the impact of combining seasonal intermittent preventive treatment in children (IPTc) with home-based management of malaria (HMM) by community health workers (CHWs) in Senegal. Eight CHWs in eight villages covered by the Bonconto health post, (South Eastern part of Senegal) were trained to diagnose malaria using RDT, provide prompt treatment with artemether-lumefantrine for uncomplicated malaria cases and pre-referral rectal artesunate for complicated malaria occurring in children under 10 years. Four CHWs were randomized to also administer monthly IPTc as single dose of sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) plus three doses of amodiaquine (AQ) in the malaria transmission season, October and November 2010. Primary end point was incidence of single episode of malaria attacks over 8 weeks of follow up. Secondary end points included prevalence of malaria parasitaemia, and prevalence of anaemia at the end of the transmission season. Primary analysis was by intention to treat. The study protocol was approved by the Senegalese National Ethical Committee (approval 0027/MSP/DS/CNRS, 18/03/2010).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 1,000 children were enrolled. The incidence of malaria episodes was 7.1/100 child months at risk [95% CI (3.7-13.7)] in communities with IPTc + HMM compared to 35.6/100 child months at risk [95% CI (26.7-47.4)] in communities with only HMM (aOR = 0.20; 95% CI 0.09-0.41; <it>p </it>= 0.04). At the end of the transmission season, malaria parasitaemia prevalence was lower in communities with IPTc + HMM (2.05% versus 4.6% <it>p </it>= 0.03). Adjusted for age groups, sex, <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>carriage and prevalence of malnutrition, IPTc + HMM showed a significant protective effect against anaemia (aOR = 0.59; 95% CI 0.42-0.82; <it>p </it>= 0.02).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Combining IPTc and HMM can provide significant additional benefit in preventing clinical episodes of malaria as well as anaemia among children in Senegal.</p

Safety, Immunogenicity and Efficacy of Prime-Boost Vaccination with ChAd63 and MVA Encoding ME-TRAP against Plasmodium falciparum Infection in Adults in Senegal.

Malaria transmission is in decline in some parts of Africa, partly due to the scaling up of control measures. If the goal of elimination is to be achieved, additional control measures including an effective and durable vaccine will be required. Studies utilising the prime-boost approach to deliver viral vectors encoding the pre-erythrocytic antigen ME-TRAP (multiple epitope thrombospondin-related adhesion protein) have shown promising safety, immunogenicity and efficacy in sporozoite challenge studies. More recently, a study in Kenyan adults, similar to that reported here, showed substantial efficacy against P. falciparum infection. One hundred and twenty healthy male volunteers, living in a malaria endemic area of Senegal were randomised to receive either the Chimpanzee adenovirus (ChAd63) ME-TRAP as prime vaccination, followed eight weeks later by modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA) also encoding ME-TRAP as booster, or two doses of anti-rabies vaccine as a comparator. Prior to follow-up, antimalarials were administered to clear parasitaemia and then participants were monitored by PCR for malaria infection for eight weeks. The primary endpoint was time-to-infection with P. falciparum malaria, determined by two consecutive positive PCR results. Secondary endpoints included adverse event reporting, measures of cellular and humoral immunogenicity and a meta-analysis of combined vaccine efficacy with the parallel study in Kenyan adults.We show that this pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine is safe and induces significant immunogenicity, with a peak T-cell response at seven days after boosting of 932 Spot Forming Cells (SFC)/106 Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells(PBMC) compared to 57 SFC/ 106 PBMCs in the control group. However, a vaccine efficacy was not observed: 12 of 57 ME-TRAP vaccinees became PCR positive during the intensive monitoring period as compared to 13 of the 58 controls (P = 0.80). This trial confirms that vaccine efficacy against malaria infection in adults may be rapidly assessed using this efficient and cost-effective clinical trial design. Further efficacy evaluation of this vectored candidate vaccine approach in other malaria transmission settings and age-de-escalation into the main target age groups for a malaria vaccine is in progress

Multicentric assessment of the efficacy and tolerability of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine compared to artemether-lumefantrine in the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in sub-Saharan Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The choice of appropriate artemisinin-based combination therapy depends on several factors (cost, efficacy, safety, reinfection rate and simplicity of administration). To assess whether the combination dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) could be an alternative to artemether-lumefantrine (AL), the efficacy and the tolerability of the two products for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have been compared.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A multicentric open randomized controlled clinical trial of three-day treatment of DP against AL for the treatment of two parallel groups of patients aged two years and above and suffering from uncomplicated falciparum malaria was carried out in Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal. Within each group, patients were randomly assigned supervised treatment. DP was given once a day for three days and AL twice a day for three days. Follow-up visits were performed on day 1 to 4 and on day 7, 14, 21, 28 to evaluate clinical and parasitological results. The primary endpoint was the recovery rate by day 28.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 384 patients enrolled, 197 were assigned DP and 187 AL. The recovery rates adjusted by genotyping, 99.5% in the DP group and 98.9% in the AL group, were not statistically different (p = 0.538). No Early Therapeutic Failure (ETF) was observed. At day 28, two patients in the DP group and five in AL group had recurrent parasitaemia with <it>Plasmodium falciparum</it>. In the DP group, after PCR genotyping, one of the two recurrences was classified as a new infection and the other as recrudescence. In AL group, two recurrences were classified after correction by PCR as recrudescence. All cases of recrudescence were classified as Late Parasitological Failure (LPF). In each group, a rapid recovery from fever and parasitaemia was noticed. More than 90% of patients did no longer present fever or parasitaemia 48 hours after treatment. Both drugs were well tolerated. Indeed, no serious adverse events were reported during the follow-up period. Most of the adverse events which developed were moderate and did not result in the treatment being stopped in either treatment group.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine was as effective and well-tolerated as artemether-lumefantrine in the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria. In addition, dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, a single daily dose, could be an advantage over artemether-lumefantrine in Africa because of better treatment observance.</p