Understanding Congressional Responsiveness.

This dissertation addresses a simple question: Why are some members of congress very responsive to the ideological preferences of their constituency while others appear to ignore their constituency? Although numerous scholars have explored this issue, they have consistently: (1) limited their analyses to the influence of member characteristics while ignoring the potentially significant influence of constituent factors and (2) failed to test a single comprehensive model of congressional responsiveness that considers the full range of member and constituent factors hypothesized to influence variation in congressional responsiveness. This dissertation directly addresses these two problems by developing and testing a comprehensive model of congressional representation that focuses on both the influence of constituent and member conditions on variation in congressional representation. Specifically, I examine the influence of electoral margins, congressional retirement, electoral proximity, congressional seniority, constituency homogeneity, and constituency political engagement. My analyses suggest that constituent conditions play a significant role in explaining variation in congressional responsiveness. In particular, I find that members from relatively homogeneous and politically engaged constituencies are significantly more responsive to the preferences of their constituents. I argue that this is because relatively homogeneous constituencies send relatively consistent signals regarding their preferences, while politically engaged constituencies are more likely to make their preferences known and punish members of congress who are not responsive to them. Surprisingly, I find that the influence of member conditions on variation in congressional responsiveness appears to be minimal and their influence varies between chambers of congress. Ultimately, I conclude, much of the variation exhibited in congressional representation is not random, but rather systematically associated with various member and constituent characteristics. Moreover, constituent factors play a vital role in this process and future research by congressional scholars must recognize this role if they are to fully understand the factors that influence congressional representation

The Politics of Electricity Restructuring Across the American States: Power Failure and Policy Failure

While the broad purpose of this research is to provide an improved understanding of general state policy innovation, we develop and test a model of policy innovation which examines the factors that influence the probability of a state restructuring its electric utility policies. The results of our model of electric restructuring generally support our hypotheses and more broadly the literature regarding policy innovation. Our findings indicate economic interests continue to represent a key factor in understanding the policy choices of state legislatures. States which faced high energy costs were most likely to look for opportunities to reduce those costs. Second, we find state legislatures with the greatest resources and expertise were quickest to explore and adopt policy innovations in response to their high energy costs. Third, states where the general policy preferences of those in power favored deregulation (Republicans) were also more likely to restructure. Finally, we note it is interesting that a policy innovation which many believe to have failed so miserably was most likely to be adopted by the most professional (sophisticated) legislatures

Measuring Constituency Ideology in U.S. House Districts: A Top-Down Simulation Approach

One of the most intractable problems associated with studying representation in the U.S. House of Representatives involves the measurement of district-level constituency opinion. In measuring constituency opinion in House districts, scholars have relied on a number of alternative approaches, including the use of demographic variables, small-sample estimates of public opinion, presidential election results, referenda data, and “bottom-up” simulated opinion. In this article we develop an innovative “top-down” simulation of House district opinion that provides more reliable and valid measures of House district ideology. We model state-level ideology (as measured by Erikson, Wright, and McIver 1993) as a function of various demographic and political variables found at both the state and House district levels, and then use the estimates from the state-level model to generate predicted ideology scores for each House district during the 1980s and 1990s. Our findings suggest that the top-down simulated measure is a valid indicator of House district ideology that can be used in a number of research venues

Partisan Bias in the Electoral College: Cheap States and Wasted Votes

This article dissects the sources of partisan bias in the institutional structure of the U.S. electoral college. Conventional wisdom and results of recent presidential elections suggest that the electoral college is biased in favor of the Republican Party. While previous empirical studies have challenged this conventional wisdom, George Bush's 2000 electoral college victory revived this debate. Our research provides a direct analysis of the multiple sources of bias within the electoral college and examines their individual impact on each party's electoral fortunes over the last eleven elections (1964-2004) with particular attention on the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Our results are in line with previous analyses indicating no significant bias within the electoral college. We conclude that parties and their presidential candidates are rational political actors who utilize sophisticated campaign strategies which allow them to efficiently employ their resources and limit any institutional disadvantages they may face

The Partisan Battle Over College Student Voting: An Analysis of Student Voting Behavior

We aim to test the hypothesis that college students provide Democratic candidates with greater electoral support and whether this varies among federal, state, and local elections. We also test whether college students mobilized by presidential campaigns are more likely to abstain from voting for state and local elections. To examine these questions, we employed OLS and difference- of-means tests to analyze the distribution of votes cast in competitive elections for the November 2008 elections in 86 precincts located on 42 college campuses across five states as compared to the distribution of votes cast in noncollege precincts. College precincts were identified by representatives from each community’s local Board of Elections. In line with conventional wisdom, the results of the analyses indicate Democratic candidates for federal offices do consistently receive greater electoral support from precincts located on college campuses as compared to noncollege precincts. However, the analyses of state and local elections highlight substantial variation in the level of support that Democratic candidates receive from precincts located on college campuses. Moreover, we found many college students in 2008 cast their ballots for Obama, but chose not to participate in lower-level elections. Republican fears regarding college students turning small towns on their heads via the ballot box are not supported by our analyses. On average, students vote more democratically than nonstudents but they are also more likely to simply choose not to vote for local candidates. By and large, they come to the polls to vote for national offices, not local ones

African Americans in the Republican Party: Choosing the Road Less Traveled

While most African Americans identify with the Democratic Party, a small minority chooses to identify and support the party of Lincoln. However, very little is known about the demographic make-up or policy preferences of these individuals. Utilizing the 1992-2002 American National Election Studies, we provide a multivariate analysis of the demographic characteristics and policy leanings of African American Republicans. Our analysis suggests several systematic patterns regarding African Americans’ Republican Party identification. First, as with the general population, we find they are more likely to be male, from the South and to identify themselves as conservatives. However, unlike the general population, we find they are not more likely to maintain upper or middle incomes or to view religion as an important guide in their life. Third, we find African Americans born after 1950 are more likely to identify themselves as Republican. Fourth, we find African American Republicans feel less warmth toward blacks than the majority of their brethren and are less likely to view race or social welfare issues as significant problems in America. Ultimately, we conclude racial issues are still the key to understanding African American Partisanship

Rebels and Nomads: Have White Southerners Found Sanctuary in the Republican Party?

During the last 30 years, the Republicans have become an interesting assortment of economic, international, and social conservatism, with each leg of the triad having more prominence at distinct times. Examining key votes throughout this period, we assess how the most recent converts to the party, those from Southern states, align with Republicans from other regions on each of these three dimensions. We also estimate the relative importance of each of the three dimensions annually during this period. Finally, we examine whether the unstable equilibrium that haunted the Congressional Democrats through the first half of the Cold War era has merely found a new resting place in the Republican Party. In order to analyze these issues, we analyze House roll call votes from 1975 - 2000 to determine how closely Southern and non- Southern Republicans are aligned. Next, we examine various issue dimensions, determining how party cohesion is affected when different sets of issues take on greater legislative importance. Our findings confirm that issue dimensions affect party cohesion and that regional differences are an important distinction when analyzing House Republicans in a modern context

Ask Me No Question, I'll Tell You No Lies: Does the Bradley Effect Still Exist?

Since African-Americans began competing in elections in majority white districts, researchers have postulated that some whites were reticent to tell pollsters that they intended to vote for the white candidate, causing polling to be inaccurate. Prior to 2006, it was difficult to determine empirically whether the Bradley Effect existed, and if it did, how powerful of a factor it was, since there were relatively few cases to examine. This study examines the 2006 electoral contests that pitted African-Americans versus whites, and analyzes the Democratic primaries and caucuses in the 2008 presidential race. We find that a Bradley Effect did exist in about half of the 2006 elections and in about one quarter of the 2008 primaries. However, a ‘reverse’ Bradley Effect occurred about as often

Measuring constituency ideology in U.S. house districts: A top-down simulation approach

One of the most intractable problems associated with studying representation in the U.S. House of Representatives involves the measurement of district-level constituency opinion. In measuring constituency opinion in House districts, scholars have relied on a number of alternative approaches, including the use of demographic variables, small-sample estimates of public opinion, presidential election results, referenda data, and "bottom-up" simulated opinion. In this article we develop an innovative "top-down" simulation of House district opinion that provides more reliable and valid measures of House district ideology. We model state-level ideology (as measured by Erikson, Wright, and McIver 1993) as a function of various demographic and political variables found at both the state and House district levels, and then use the estimates from the state-level model to generate predicted ideology scores for each House district during the 1980s and 1990s. Our findings suggest that the top-down simulated measure is a valid indicator of House district ideology that can be used in a number of research venues. Representation is particularly important to democratic theory. According to Considering the important role that representation plays in democracies, the study of representation has occupied a central place in the field of political science and has long captivated the interest of both theorists and empirical analysts. Although scholars have explored a range of representational behaviors, the focus of much of this research has been on what The concept of policy representation requires at least some level of congruence between the policy views of constituents and the policy behavior of repre

Gambling in Louisiana: 2002 Louisiana Study of Problem Gambling

This study is the third in a sequence (1995 and 1998) designed to study the problem of compulsive gambling, the best ways to prevent and address the problem of compulsive gambling, the most effective, responsible, and equitable way to support the infrastructure necessary to prevent problem gambling, and the steps that should be taken by the State Legislature to accomplish the establishment of the recommended infrastructure (Louisiana Compulsive Gambling Study Committee Report, 1996).Ye