The Geometry of Crashes - A Measure of the Dynamics of Stock Market Crises

This paper investigates the dynamics of stocks in the S&P500 index for the last 30 years. Using a stochastic geometry technique, we investigate the evolution of the market space and define a new measure for that purpose, which is a robust index of the dynamics of the market structure and provides information on the intensity and the sectoral impact of the crises. With this measure, we analyze the effects of some extreme phenomena on the geometry of the market. Nine crashes between 1987 and 2001 are compared by looking at the way they modify the shape of the manifold that describes the S&P500 market space. These crises are identified as (a) structural, (b) general and (c) local.financial markets; stochastic geometry; complexity; market spaces; market structures.

Innovation Success and Structural Change: An Abstract Agent Based Study

A model is developed to study the effectiveness of innovation and its impact on structure creation and structure change on agent-based societies. The abstract model that is developed is easily adapted to any particular field. In any interacting environment, the agents receive something from the environment (the other agents) in exchange for their effort and pay the environment a certain amount of value for the fulfilling of their needs or for the very price of existence in that environment. This is coded by two bit strings and the dynamics of the exchange is based on the matching of these strings to those of the other agents. Innovation is related to the adaptation by the agents of their bit strings to improve some utility function.Comment: 20 pages, 12 figure

Function and form in networks of interacting agents

The main problem we address in this paper is whether function determines form when a society of agents organizes itself for some purpose or whether the organizing method is more important than the functionality in determining the structure of the ensemble. As an example, we use a neural network that learns the same function by two different learning methods. For sufficiently large networks, very different structures may indeed be obtained for the same functionality. Clustering, characteristic path length and hierarchy are structural differences, which in turn have implications on the robustness and adaptability of the networks. In networks, as opposed to simple graphs, the connections between the agents are not necessarily symmetric and may have positive or negative signs. New characteristic coefficients are introduced to characterize this richer connectivity structure.Comment: 27 pages Latex, 11 figure

The Seismography of Crashes in Financial Markets

This paper investigates the dynamics of stocks in the S&P500 for the last 33 years, considering the population of all companies present in the index for the whole period. Using a stochastic geometry tech- nique and defining a robust index of the dynamics of the market struc- ture, which is able to provide information about the intensity of the crises, the paper proposes a seismographic classification of the crashes that occurred during the period. The index is used in order to inves- tigate and to classify the impact of the twelve crashes between July 1973 and March 2006 and to discuss the available evidence of change of structure after the fin de sicle.Keywords: financial markets; stochastic geometry; complexity; market spaces; market structures.

Disturbance of patterns in EEG spatial correlations

In the study of epileptic seizure or epileptic attack, a strategy receiving increased attention is the use of nonlinear methods in detecting the earliest dynamical changes preceding seizures. The methods usually consider continuous EEG measurements from epileptic patients to predict and ultimately control seizures. As part of the inquiry into the structure of the dynamics of the brain activity we investigate changes amongst the EEG signals being recorded at different locations on the scalp. Patterns emerging from the correlation coefficients between the EEG channels seem to be disturbed with the approach of a crisis. Results show that those patterns are often disturbed 10 to 15 minutes before the beginning of crises, helping to detect the earliest dynamical changes preceding seizures.EEG spatial correlations; epileptic seizures

The economic performance of Portuguese and Spanish regions: A network dynamic approach

This paper contributes to further understanding the economic performance of Portuguese and Spanish regions, using a stochastic network approach. The empirical analysis is made at the territorial level of NUT 3 regions and covers the period 1995-2008. The performance of regions is based on GDP per capita at Purchasing Power Standards. The network analysis is based on a metric space built from the correlation coefficients between the log-difference of annual growth rates. The metric space and the corresponding topological coefficients are compared with the independent performance of randomly generated data. The metric space is graphically represented along the 3 dominant eigenvalues and the strongest connections are selected and represented in a network of Iberian regions. The main purpose of this research is to find the most relevant geographical and demographic determinants of regional development, namely a “border effect”, an “interiority (without border) effect”, a “coastal effect”, a “metropolitan effect” and an “ultra periphery effect”.

A dynamical characterization of the small world phase

Small-world (SW) networks have been identified in many different fields. Topological coefficients like the clustering coefficient and the characteristic path length have been used in the past for a qualitative characterization of these networks. Here a dynamical approach is used to characterize the small-world phenomenon. Using the $\beta -$model, a coupled map dynamical system is defined on the network. Entrance to and exit from the SW phase are related to the behavior of the ergodic invariants of the dynamics.Comment: 8 pages Latex, 3 figure

Opinion Dynamics and Communication Networks

This paper examines the interplay of opinion exchange dynamics and communication network formation. An opinion formation procedure is introduced which is based on an abstract representation of opinions as k-dimensional bitstrings. Individuals interact if the difference in the opinion strings is below a defined similarity threshold dI. Depending on dI, different behaviour of the population is observed: low values result in a state of highly fragmented opinions and higher values yield consensus. The first contribution of this research is to identify the values of parameters dI and k, such that the transition between fragmented opinions and homogeneity takes place. Then, we look at this transition from two perspectives: first by studying the group size distribution and second by analysing the communication network that is formed by the interactions that take place during the simulation. The emerging networks are classified by statistical means and we find that non-trivial social structures emerge from simple rules for individual communication.

Education, neighbourhood effects and growth: an agent based model approach

Endogenous, ideas-led, growth theory and agent based modelling with neighbourhood effects literature are crossed. In an economic overlapping generations framework, it is shown how social interactions and neighbourhood effects are of vital importance in the endogenous determination of the long run number of skilled workers and therefore of the growth prospects of an economy. Neighbourhood effects interact with the initial distribution of educated agents across space and play a key role in the long run stabilisation of the number of educated individuals. Our model implies a tendency towards segregation, with a possibly positive influence on growth, if team effects operate. The long run growth rate is also shown to depend on the rate of time preference. Initial circumstances are of vital importance for long run outcomes. A poor initial education endowment will imply a long run reduced number of skilled workers and a mediocre growth rate, so there no economic convergence tendency. On the contrary, poor societies will grow less, or will even fall into a poverty trap, and will diverge continuously from richer ones.Comment: 12 pages and 3 figure

Creación de un diplomado en estimulación infantil

PDFEn el presente trabajo se plantea la necesidad de implementar un Diplomado como un medio eficiente para mejorar el desempeño de las profesionales egresadas de la Especialización de Párvulos de la Universidad Estatal de Milagro, cabe destacar la importancia de la Estimulación Temprana ya que es toda aquella actividad de contacto o juego con un bebe o niño menor de 03 años, que propicie, fortalezca y desarrolle adecuada y oportunamente sus potenciales humanas. La estimulación Infantil es el conjunto de medios, técnicas, y actividades con base científica y aplicada en forma sistémica y secuencial que se emplea en niños desde su nacimiento hasta los seis años, con el objetivo de desarrollar al máximo sus capacidades cognitivas, físicas y psíquicas, permite también, evitar estados no deseados en el desarrollo y ayudar a los padres, con eficacia y autonomía, en el cuidado y desarrollo del infante. Durante esta etapa se perfecciona la actividad de todos los órganos de los sentidos, en especial, los relacionados con la percepción visual y auditiva del niño, esto le permitirá reconocer y diferenciar colores, formas y sonidos, los procesos psíquicos y las actividades que se forman en el niño durante esta etapa constituyen habilidades que resultarán imprescindibles en su vida posterior. Durante esta etapa se perfecciona la actividad de todos los órganos de los sentidos, en especial, los relacionados con la percepción visual y auditiva del niño, esto le permitirá reconocer y diferenciar colores, formas y sonidos. Lo que se logrará a través de la implementación del diplomado en Estimulación Infantil, en la Universidad de MilagroIn the present study addresses the need to implement a graduate with an efficient means to improve the professional performance of graduates of the Toddler Specialization of the State University of Milagro, note that early stimulation is known to all that activity or contact play with a baby or child under 03 years, which facilitate, strengthen and develop adequate and timely human potential. Early stimulation is the set of media, techniques, and science-based activities and applied in a systemic and sequential is used in children from birth to six years, with the aim of optimizing their cognitive, physical and mental , can also avoid undesired states in the development and help parents, and self-efficacy in infant care and development. During this stage improves the activity of all organs of the senses, especially those related to visual and auditory perception of the child, this will enable you to recognize and distinguish colors, shapes and sounds. On the other hand, the mental processes and activities that form on the child during this stage are skills that are needed in later life. During this stage improves the activity of all organs of the senses, especially those related to visual and auditory perception of the child, this will enable you to recognize and distinguish colors, shapes and sounds. On the other hand, the mental processes and activities that form on the child during this stage are skills that are needed in later life. This will be achieved through the implementation of the Diploma in Early Learning at the University of Milagr