Retrieving Supporting Evidence for Generative Question Answering

Current large language models (LLMs) can exhibit near-human levels of performance on many natural language-based tasks, including open-domain question answering. Unfortunately, at this time, they also convincingly hallucinate incorrect answers, so that responses to questions must be verified against external sources before they can be accepted at face value. In this paper, we report two simple experiments to automatically validate generated answers against a corpus. We base our experiments on questions and passages from the MS MARCO (V1) test collection, and a retrieval pipeline consisting of sparse retrieval, dense retrieval and neural rerankers. In the first experiment, we validate the generated answer in its entirety. After presenting a question to an LLM and receiving a generated answer, we query the corpus with the combination of the question + generated answer. We then present the LLM with the combination of the question + generated answer + retrieved answer, prompting it to indicate if the generated answer can be supported by the retrieved answer. In the second experiment, we consider the generated answer at a more granular level, prompting the LLM to extract a list of factual statements from the answer and verifying each statement separately. We query the corpus with each factual statement and then present the LLM with the statement and the corresponding retrieved evidence. The LLM is prompted to indicate if the statement can be supported and make necessary edits using the retrieved material. With an accuracy of over 80%, we find that an LLM is capable of verifying its generated answer when a corpus of supporting material is provided. However, manual assessment of a random sample of questions reveals that incorrect generated answers are missed by this verification process. While this verification process can reduce hallucinations, it can not entirely eliminate them.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2306.1378

PREME: Preference-based Meeting Exploration through an Interactive Questionnaire

The recent increase in the volume of online meetings necessitates automated tools for managing and organizing the material, especially when an attendee has missed the discussion and needs assistance in quickly exploring it. In this work, we propose a novel end-to-end framework for generating interactive questionnaires for preference-based meeting exploration. As a result, users are supplied with a list of suggested questions reflecting their preferences. Since the task is new, we introduce an automatic evaluation strategy. Namely, it measures how much the generated questions via questionnaire are answerable to ensure factual correctness and covers the source meeting for the depth of possible exploration

Towards better Human-Agent Alignment: Assessing Task Utility in LLM-Powered Applications

The rapid development in the field of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led to a surge in applications that facilitate collaboration among multiple agents to assist humans in their daily tasks. However, a significant gap remains in assessing whether LLM-powered applications genuinely enhance user experience and task execution efficiency. This highlights the pressing need for methods to verify utility of LLM-powered applications, particularly by ensuring alignment between the application's functionality and end-user needs. We introduce AgentEval provides an implementation for the math problems, a novel framework designed to simplify the utility verification process by automatically proposing a set of criteria tailored to the unique purpose of any given application. This allows for a comprehensive assessment, quantifying the utility of an application against the suggested criteria. We present a comprehensive analysis of the robustness of quantifier's work

Learning to Solve Voxel Building Embodied Tasks from Pixels and Natural Language Instructions

The adoption of pre-trained language models to generate action plans for embodied agents is a promising research strategy. However, execution of instructions in real or simulated environments requires verification of the feasibility of actions as well as their relevance to the completion of a goal. We propose a new method that combines a language model and reinforcement learning for the task of building objects in a Minecraft-like environment according to the natural language instructions. Our method first generates a set of consistently achievable sub-goals from the instructions and then completes associated sub-tasks with a pre-trained RL policy. The proposed method formed the RL baseline at the IGLU 2022 competition.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figure

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Query Performance Prediction: From Ad-hoc to Conversational Search

Query performance prediction (QPP) is a core task in information retrieval. The QPP task is to predict the retrieval quality of a search system for a query without relevance judgments. Research has shown the effectiveness and usefulness of QPP for ad-hoc search. Recent years have witnessed considerable progress in conversational search (CS). Effective QPP could help a CS system to decide an appropriate action to be taken at the next turn. Despite its potential, QPP for CS has been little studied. We address this research gap by reproducing and studying the effectiveness of existing QPP methods in the context of CS. While the task of passage retrieval remains the same in the two settings, a user query in CS depends on the conversational history, introducing novel QPP challenges. In particular, we seek to explore to what extent findings from QPP methods for ad-hoc search generalize to three CS settings: (i) estimating the retrieval quality of different query rewriting-based retrieval methods, (ii) estimating the retrieval quality of a conversational dense retrieval method, and (iii) estimating the retrieval quality for top ranks vs. deeper-ranked lists. Our findings can be summarized as follows: (i) supervised QPP methods distinctly outperform unsupervised counterparts only when a large-scale training set is available; (ii) point-wise supervised QPP methods outperform their list-wise counterparts in most cases; and (iii) retrieval score-based unsupervised QPP methods show high effectiveness in assessing the conversational dense retrieval method, ConvDR.Comment: Accepted for publication at SIGIR 202

Neural embedding-based specificity metrics for pre-retrieval query performance prediction

© 2020 Elsevier Ltd In information retrieval, the task of query performance prediction (QPP) is concerned with determining in advance the performance of a given query within the context of a retrieval model. QPP has an important role in ensuring proper handling of queries with varying levels of difficulty. Based on the extant literature, query specificity is an important indicator of query performance and is typically estimated using corpus-specific frequency-based specificity metrics However, such metrics do not consider term semantics and inter-term associations. Our work presented in this paper distinguishes itself by proposing a host of corpus-independent specificity metrics that are based on pre-trained neural embeddings and leverage geometric relations between terms in the embedding space in order to capture the semantics of terms and their interdependencies. Specifically, we propose three classes of specificity metrics based on pre-trained neural embeddings: neighborhood-based, graph-based, and cluster-based metrics. Through two extensive and complementary sets of experiments, we show that the proposed specificity metrics (1) are suitable specificity indicators, based on the gold standards derived from knowledge hierarchies (Wikipedia category hierarchy and DMOZ taxonomy), and (2) have better or competitive performance compared to the state of the art QPP metrics, based on both TREC ad hoc collections namely Robust’04, Gov2 and ClueWeb’09 and ANTIQUE question answering collection. The proposed graph-based specificity metrics, especially those that capture a larger number of inter-term associations, proved to be the most effective in both query specificity estimation and QPP. We have also publicly released two test collections (i.e. specificity gold standards) that we built from the Wikipedia and DMOZ knowledge hierarchies

Supporting Complex Information-Seeking Tasks with Implicit Constraints

Current interactive systems with natural language interface lack an ability to understand a complex information-seeking request which expresses several implicit constraints at once, and there is no prior information about user preferences, e.g., "find hiking trails around San Francisco which are accessible with toddlers and have beautiful scenery in summer", where output is a list of possible suggestions for users to start their exploration. In such scenarios, the user requests can be issued at once in the form of a complex and long query, unlike conversational and exploratory search models that require short utterances or queries where they often require to be fed into the system step by step. This advancement provides the final user more flexibility and precision in expressing their intent through the search process. Such systems are inherently helpful for day-today user tasks requiring planning that are usually time-consuming, sometimes tricky, and cognitively taxing. We have designed and deployed a platform to collect the data from approaching such complex interactive systems. In this paper, we propose an Interactive Agent (IA) that allows intricately refined user requests by making it complete, which should lead to better retrieval. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed modeling paradigm, we have adopted various pre-retrieval metrics that capture the extent to which guided interactions with our system yield better retrieval results. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrated that our method significantly outperforms several robust baseline

IGLU 2022: Interactive Grounded Language Understanding in a Collaborative Environment at NeurIPS 2022

Human intelligence has the remarkable ability to adapt to new tasks and environments quickly. Starting from a very young age, humans acquire new skills and learn how to solve new tasks either by imitating the behavior of others or by following provided natural language instructions. To facilitate research in this direction, we propose IGLU: Interactive Grounded Language Understanding in a Collaborative Environment. The primary goal of the competition is to approach the problem of how to develop interactive embodied agents that learn to solve a task while provided with grounded natural language instructions in a collaborative environment. Understanding the complexity of the challenge, we split it into sub-tasks to make it feasible for participants. This research challenge is naturally related, but not limited, to two fields of study that are highly relevant to the NeurIPS community: Natural Language Understanding and Generation (NLU/G) and Reinforcement Learning (RL). Therefore, the suggested challenge can bring two communities together to approach one of the crucial challenges in AI. Another critical aspect of the challenge is the dedication to perform a human-in-the-loop evaluation as a final evaluation for the agents developed by contestants.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2110.0653