Is Poland really 'immune' to the spread of cohabitation?

Various data have constantly pointed out a low incidence of non-marital unions in Poland (at 1.4-4.9% among all unions). In this paper we demonstrate that these data, coming exclusively from cross-sectional surveys, clearly underestimate the scale of the phenomenon. By exploiting data on partnership histories we show that young Poles have increasingly opted for cohabitation. Consequently, in the years 2004-2006, entries to cohabitation constituted about one third of all first union entries. Consensual unions have traditionally been seen as being more widespread among the lower social strata, but a clear increase in cohabitation has been also been recently observed among groups with higher levels of educational attainment. Although the estimates of cohabitation incidence are far below those observed in Northern and Western Europe, our study suggests that Poland is not as ‘immune’ to the spread of consensual unions as it is commonly believed.cohabitation, Poland, union formation

Stochastic forecast of the population of Poland, 2005-2050

Forecasting the population of Poland is very challenging. Firstly, the country has been undergoing rapid demographic changes. In the 1990s, they were influenced by the political, economic, and social consequences of the collapse of the communist regime. Since 2004 they have been shaped by Poland’s entry into the European Union. Secondly, the availability of statistics for Poland on past trends is strongly limited. The resulting high uncertainty of future trends should be dealt with systematically, which is an essential part of the stochastic forecast presented in this paper. The forecast results show that the Polish population will constantly decline during the next decades and Poland will face significant ageing as indicated by a rising old-age dependency-ratio. There is a probability of 50 % that in 2050 the population will number between 27 and 35 millions compared to 38.2 in 2004 and that there will be at least 63 persons aged 65+ per 100 persons aged 19-64.Poland, predictive distributions, stochastic forecast, uncertainty

Fertility and women’s employment: a meta-analysis

Our research objective was to systematise the existing literature on the relation between fertility and women’s employment at the micro-level. Instead of carrying out a traditional literature review, we conducted a meta-analysis. This allowed us to compare estimates from different studies standardised for the country analysed, the method applied, control variables used, or sample selected. We focused on two effects: the impact of work on fertility and the impact of young children on employment entry. First, we found a high variation in the studied effects among the institutional settings, reflecting the existence of a north-south gradient. Second, we observed a significant change in the effects over time. Finally, we demonstrated that a failure to account for the respondent’s social background, partner and job characteristics tends to produce a bias to the estimated effects.

Posiadanie własnego mieszkania a rodzicielstwo w Polsce

Having a home of one’s own was enumerated by Hobcraft and Kiernan (1995) as one of the five pre-conditions for the entry to parenthood in industrialised economies. The importance of home ownership for the decision to become a parent has not been investigated for Poland, however. This article aims at filling partly this gap through examining the relationship between home ownership and first birth among Polish women born 1971–1981. This research issue is considered to be important due to a decline in the number of dwellings completed each year as well as the enormous increase in housing prices that were observed in Poland after 1989. Our empirical findings point out a strong and positive relationship between home ownership and entry to motherhood. More in-depth analyses show that this result is mostly to be attributed to the fact that parents-to-be condition the realisation of their childbearing plan made in the past on becoming a home owner. It is to be noted, that rental accommodation is a far less attractive option for persons planning a child, as is the residence at parents’ dwelling. These results are largely consistent with empirical findings of other researchers investigating this issue in other industrialised economies and suggest that difficulties with a home purchase are one of the reasons for fertility postponement in Poland

Methods for reconciling the micro and macro in family demography research: a systematization

In the second half of the 20th century, scientific study of population changed its paradigm from the macro to the micro, so that attention focused mainly on individuals as the agents of demographic action. However, for accurate handling of all the complexities of human behaviours, the interactions between individuals and the context they belong to cannot be ignored. Therefore, in order to explain (or, at least, to understand) contemporary fertility and family dynamics, the gap between the micro and the macro should be bridged. In this contribution, we highlight two possible directions for bridging the gap: (1) integrating life-course analyses with the study of contextual characteristics, which is made possible by the emergence of the theory and tools of multi-level modelling; and (2) bringing the micro-level findings back to macro outcomes via meta-analytic techniques and agent-based computational models

Women’s employment and marital stability: the role of the context

A discussion of the effects of partners’ labour force participation on marital stability has been part of the demographic debate for several decades. While theorists generally agree that men’s employment has a stabilizing effect on marriage, there is considerable controversy about the effects of women’s involvement in the labour market on marital stability. This debate has centred on several models and arguments. The most recent contributions have underlined the role of the context in moderating the relationship in question, and our study aims to contribute to this debate. We use the case of Poland, a country that underwent rapid and profound changes in its economic, institutional, and socio-cultural settings. Using GGS- PL data, we estimated a hazard regression of marital disruption, separately for women and men. The effects of employment status were allowed to vary by calendar time in order to determine how the relationship between women’s economic activity and marital stability was affected by the transformation of the labour market; the reassignment of responsibility for an individual’s welfare among the state, the family, and the market; the change in institutional support for families; and the liberalisation of the gender roles. Our empirical study showed that, after the onset of the economic transformation, working women became significantly more likely to divorce than women who did not have a job. This finding implies that the economic transformation led to a substantial increase in women’s dependence on their partners, and made it much more difficult for non-working women to exit unhappy marriages. This conclusion is further corroborated by our finding that, relative to working women, the disruption risk among women on maternity and parental leave declined over time. As expected, men’s employment was found to stabilise marriages both prior to and after 1989

Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes?

This article opens with a review of the main trends in family-related behaviour, i.e. fertility decline and changes in fertility patterns, a decreasing propensity to marry, postponement of marriage, and a slowly increasing frequency of divorces and separations. The analysis takes into account urban and rural differences. We then aim to identify the main determinants of family changes within the general conceptual framework of the Second Democratic Transition (SDT) in Poland. However, contrary to mainstream interpretations of the SDT, the main emphasis of this study is on the structural components of change, which need to be reformulated to account for processes specific to the transition to a market economy. The focus is, therefore, on labour market developments and family policy, and to a lesser extent on ideational change.childbearing, Europe, fertility, fertility decline, Poland