The Way Forward: Moving From the Post-Bubble, Post-Bust Economy to Renewed Growth and Competitiveness

We argue that the U.S. economy is presently mired in a particularly tenacious, Fisher-style debt-deflation rooted in long term secular trends in the domestic and global economies. Global productive capacity has steadily outpaced global absorptive capacity for several decades now, and the latter will not catch up with the former for a good many years to come -- if ever. In order to avert long-term Japanese-style stagnation at home and quite possibly slowdown and slump worldwide, the U.S. will have both (a) to eliminate private sector debt-overhang from \u27both sides\u27 of the same, and (b) to act in concert with other nations to reverse and eliminate persistent trade imbalances once and for all. We accordingly describe and prescribe a detailed economic recovery program comprising three \u27pillars.\u27 The first is a robust public infrastructure investment plan to compensate for retrenchment-rooted lags in consumer demand. The second is a comprehensive mortgage debt restructuring plan including bridge loan assistance, principal reduction, and \u27rent to own\u27 components for mortgage debtors facing three distinct kinds of distress. The third includes medium and long term fiscal and currency policy reforms designed first to recycle trade surpluses into demand stimulus where presently needed, and ultimately to prevent any recurrence in future of imbalances such as have characterized global trade over the past several decades

The Way Forward: Moving From the Post-Bubble, Post-Bust Economy to Renewed Growth and Competitiveness

We argue that the U.S. economy is presently mired in a particularly tenacious, Fisher-style debt-deflation rooted in long term secular trends in the domestic and global economies. Global productive capacity has steadily outpaced global absorptive capacity for several decades now, and the latter will not catch up with the former for a good many years to come -- if ever. In order to avert long-term Japanese-style stagnation at home and quite possibly slowdown and slump worldwide, the U.S. will have both (a) to eliminate private sector debt-overhang from \u27both sides\u27 of the same, and (b) to act in concert with other nations to reverse and eliminate persistent trade imbalances once and for all. We accordingly describe and prescribe a detailed economic recovery program comprising three \u27pillars.\u27 The first is a robust public infrastructure investment plan to compensate for retrenchment-rooted lags in consumer demand. The second is a comprehensive mortgage debt restructuring plan including bridge loan assistance, principal reduction, and \u27rent to own\u27 components for mortgage debtors facing three distinct kinds of distress. The third includes medium and long term fiscal and currency policy reforms designed first to recycle trade surpluses into demand stimulus where presently needed, and ultimately to prevent any recurrence in future of imbalances such as have characterized global trade over the past several decades

The Way Forward: Moving From the Post-Bubble, Post-Bust Economy to Renewed Growth and Competitiveness

We argue that the U.S. economy is presently mired in a particularly tenacious, Fisher-style debt-deflation rooted in long term secular trends in the domestic and global economies. Global productive capacity has steadily outpaced global absorptive capacity for several decades now, and the latter will not catch up with the former for a good many years to come -- if ever. In order to avert long-term Japanese-style stagnation at home and quite possibly slowdown and slump worldwide, the U.S. will have both (a) to eliminate private sector debt-overhang from \u27both sides\u27 of the same, and (b) to act in concert with other nations to reverse and eliminate persistent trade imbalances once and for all. We accordingly describe and prescribe a detailed economic recovery program comprising three \u27pillars.\u27 The first is a robust public infrastructure investment plan to compensate for retrenchment-rooted lags in consumer demand. The second is a comprehensive mortgage debt restructuring plan including bridge loan assistance, principal reduction, and \u27rent to own\u27 components for mortgage debtors facing three distinct kinds of distress. The third includes medium and long term fiscal and currency policy reforms designed first to recycle trade surpluses into demand stimulus where presently needed, and ultimately to prevent any recurrence in future of imbalances such as have characterized global trade over the past several decades

Effective Community Policing Performance Measures

As the philosophy of policing moves from a traditional to a community-oriented approach, performance measures must shift as well. Unlike the typical police performance measures of arrest and crime rates found in traditional police philosophies, community-oriented policing performance measures are more general and tend to measure the extent to which police affect the quality of life in the communities they serve as well as the problems they solve. This manuscript begins the process of developing effective community policing performance measures and presents three case studies through which objectives and performance measures are conceptualized

Auditory Priming within and across Modalities: Evidence from Positron Emission Tomography

Previous neuroimaging studies of perceptual priming have reported priming-related decreases in the extrastriate cortex. However, because these experiments have used visual stimuli, it is unclear whether the observed decreases are associated specifically with some aspect of visual perceptual processing or with more general aspects of priming. We studied within-and cross-modality priming using an auditory word stem completion paradigm. Positron emission tomography (PET) images were obtained during stem completion and a fixation task. Within-modality auditory priming was associated with blood flow decreases in the extrastriate cortex (bilateral), medial/ right anterior prefrontal cortex, right angular gyrus, and precuneus. In cross-modality priming, the study list was presented visually, and subjects completed auditory word stems. Cross-modality priming was associated with trends for blood flow decreases in the left angular gyrus and increases in the medial/right anterior prefrontal cortex. Results thus indicate that reduced activity in the extrastriate cortex accompanies within-modality priming in both visual and auditory modalities.Psycholog

Receipt-Free Secure Elections

A fundamental requirement for secure and uncoercible elections is the receipt-free property; if voters cannot prove how they voted to anyone other than themselves, then they cannot be coerced by a second party to cast a particular vote. We begin by describing a protocol for receipt-free elections that was developed by Benaloh & Tuinstra, and then show how this protocol, although correct, is impractical to implement. We then show how to modify this protocol to make it practical to implement. Our protocol requires the addition of an “uncoercible” third party who witnesses the execution of the protocol to make sure that it is executed correctly, but who does not learn the value of the vote.Engineering and Applied Science

Inflation in the 21st Century: Taking Down the Inflationary Straw Man of the 1970s

This overview of the history of, and future prospects for, undesirable levels of price inflation in the U.S. economy concludes that concerns raised in 2021 by several well-known economists and analysts – regarding the prospects for accelerating levels of inflation as a result of pandemic-era and post-pandemic fiscal and monetary policy (enacted and proposed) – is misplaced. The wisdom of continuing expanded fiscal policy from late 2021 onwards is supported by an analysis of the prospects for future inflation in terms of both (i) the shortfall in aggregate domestic demand relative to existing endogenous and exogenous supply; and (ii) the metrics of untapped existing sources of additional supply of labor, capital and resulting production to offset incremental demand. To eliminate the issue from comparative association, the paper draws a multi-pronged distinction between the conditions of the early 21st century and those of the latter half of the 20th century that yielded the painful inflation crises of the 1970s. The analysis also includes a comparison of earlier periods dominated by cyclical core goods inflation, to the 21st century history of below-target inflation being supported primarily by service sector inflation in contract rents related to capital assets and in service sectors heavily influenced by third-party payment systems. The conclusion reached is that the four decades of relative fiscal austerity in the United States, coupled with accelerating globalization and technological development, have produced a disinflationary-to-deflationary tendency – extending from prices to labor incomes – that only substantial amounts of targeted federal spending can restore to equilibrium. With sustained levels of accelerating inflation being very unlikely. The paper is written in a style designed to be accessible to those who are not necessarily practicing economists, avoids complex mathematics in favor of graphic explanations, and eschews (or explains) terms that are not familiar to those with only a basic understanding of macroeconomic issues

Macrostate Data Clustering

We develop an effective nonhierarchical data clustering method using an analogy to the dynamic coarse graining of a stochastic system. Analyzing the eigensystem of an interitem transition matrix identifies fuzzy clusters corresponding to the metastable macroscopic states (macrostates) of a diffusive system. A "minimum uncertainty criterion" determines the linear transformation from eigenvectors to cluster-defining window functions. Eigenspectrum gap and cluster certainty conditions identify the proper number of clusters. The physically motivated fuzzy representation and associated uncertainty analysis distinguishes macrostate clustering from spectral partitioning methods. Macrostate data clustering solves a variety of test cases that challenge other methods.Comment: keywords: cluster analysis, clustering, pattern recognition, spectral graph theory, dynamic eigenvectors, machine learning, macrostates, classificatio

Ice cloud formation potential by free tropospheric particles from long-range transport over the Northern Atlantic Ocean

Long-range transported free tropospheric particles can play a significant role on heterogeneous ice nucleation. Using optical and electron microscopy we examine the physicochemical characteristics of ice nucleating particles (INPs). Particles were collected on substrates from the free troposphere at the remote Pico Mountain Observatory in the Azores Islands, after long-range transport and aging over the Atlantic Ocean. We investigate four specific events to study the ice formation potential by the collected particles with different ages and transport patterns. We use single-particle analysis, as well as bulk analysis to characterize particle populations. Both analyses show substantial differences in particle composition between samples from the four events; in addition, single-particle microscopy analysis indicates that most particles are coated by organic material. The identified INPs contained mixtures of dust, aged sea salt and soot, and organic material acquired either at the source or during transport. The temperature and relative humidity (RH) at which ice formed, varied only by 5% between samples, despite differences in particle composition, sources, and transport patterns. We hypothesize that this small variation in the onset RH may be due to the coating material on the particles. This study underscores and motivates the need to further investigate how long-range transported and atmospherically aged free tropospheric particles impact ice cloud formatio

Sacral nerve stimulation allows for decreased antegrade continence enema use in children with severe constipation.

BackgroundSacral nerve stimulation (SNS) can be beneficial for children with constipation, but no studies have focused on children with constipation severe enough to require antegrade continence enemas (ACEs). Our objective was to evaluate the efficacy of SNS in children with constipation treated with ACE.MethodsUsing a prospective patient registry, we identified patients <21years old who were receiving ACE prior to SNS placement. We compared ACE/laxative usage, PedsQL Gastrointestinal Symptom Scale (GSS), Fecal Incontinence Quality of Life Scale (FIQL), Fecal Incontinence Severity Index (FISI), and Vancouver Dysfunctional Elimination Syndrome Score (DES) at baseline and progressive follow-up time intervals.ResultsTwenty-two patients (55% male, median 12years) were included. Median ACE frequency decreased from 7 per week at baseline to 1 per week at 12months (p<0.0001). Ten children (45%) had their cecostomy/appendicostomy closed. Laxative use, GSS, FIQL, and DES did not change. FISI improved over the first 12months with statistical significance reached only at 6months (p=0.02). Six (27%) children experienced complications after SNS that required further surgery.ConclusionsIn children with severe constipation dependent on ACE, SNS led to a steady decrease in ACE usage with nearly half of patients receiving cecostomy/appendicostomy closure within 2years.Level of evidenceIV