Backing the incumbent in difficult times : the electoral impact of wildfires

¿Cómo reaccionan los votantes ante shocks que están (en su mayor parte) fuera del control de los políticos? Este artículo aborda esta cuestión a través del estudio de las consecuencias electorales de los incendios forestales en España en el período 1983-2011. A través de una estrategia de diferencias en diferencias, encontramos que un incendio forestal accidental y de gran tamaño producido hasta nueve meses antes de unas elecciones locales aumenta el porcentaje de votos del partido en la alcaldía en hasta ocho puntos porcentuales. También encontramos que la explicación más coherente con los resultados es un movimiento de apoyo al líder «rally behind the leader». Además, una formalización simple de este mecanismo tiene una implicación, que el efecto debería ser mayor para los alcaldes más votados, que es corroborada en los datosHow do voters react to large shocks that are (mostly) outside the control of politicians? We address this question by studying the electoral effects of wildfires in Spain during 1983-2011. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that a large accidental fire up to nine months ahead of a local election increases the incumbent party’s vote share by almost 8 percentage points. We find that a rally-behind-the-leader effect best explains the results. A simple formalization of this mechanism yields an implication – that the effect should be larger for stronger (more voted) incumbents – that is supported by the dat

Reliability-centered maintenance: analyzing failure in harvest sugarcane machine using some generalizations of the Weibull distribution

In this study we considered five generalizations of the standard Weibull distribution to describe the lifetime of two important components of harvest sugarcane machines. The harvesters considered in the analysis does the harvest of an average of 20 tons of sugarcane per hour and their malfunction may lead to major losses, therefore, an effective maintenance approach is of main interesting for cost savings. For the considered distributions, the mathematical background is presented. Maximum likelihood is used for parameter estimation. Further, different discrimination procedures were used to obtain the best fit for each component. At the end, we propose a maintenance scheduling for the components of the harvesters using predictive analysis

Optical pump-rejection filter based on silicon sub-wavelength engineered photonic structures

The high index contrast of the silicon-on-insulator (SOI) platform allows the realization of ultra-compact photonic circuits. However, this high contrast hinders the implementation of narrow-band Bragg filters. These typically require corrugations widths of a few nanometers or double-etch geometries, hampering device fabrication. Here we report, for the first time, on the realization of SOI Bragg filters based on sub-wavelength index engineering in a differential corrugation width configuration. The proposed double periodicity structure allows narrow-band rejection with a single etch step and relaxed width constraints. Based on this concept, we experimentally demonstrate a single-etch, $\mathbf{220\,nm}$ thick, Si Bragg filter featuring a corrugation width of $\mathbf{150\,nm}$, a rejection bandwidth of $\mathbf{1.1\,nm}$ and an extinction ratio exceeding $\mathbf{40\,dB}$. This represents a ten-fold width increase compared to conventional single-periodicity, single-etch counterparts with similar bandwidths

CC Chemokine receptor (CCR)3/eotaxin is followed by CCR4/monocyte-derived chemokine in mediating pulmonary T helper lymphocyte type 2 recruitment after serial antigen challenge in vivo

El copyright pertenece a The Rockefeller University PressIsolated peripheral blood CD4 cells from allergic individuals express CC chemokine receptor (CCR)3 and CCR4 after expansion in vitro. In addition, human T helper type 2 (Th2) cells polarized in vitro selectively express CCR3 and CCR4 at certain stages of activation/differentiation and respond preferentially to the ligands eotaxin and monocyte-derived chemokine (MDC). However, controversy arises when the in vivo significance of this distinct expression is discussed. To address the functional role of CCR3/eotaxin and CCR4/MDC during the in vivo recruitment of Th2 cells, we have transferred effector Th cells into naive mice to induce allergic airway disease. Tracking of these cells after repeated antigen challenge has established that both CCR3/eotaxin and CCR4/MDC axes contribute to the recruitment of Th2 cells to the lung, demonstrating the in vivo relevance of the expression of these receptors on Th2 cells. We have shown that involvement of the CCR3/eotaxin pathway is confined to early stages of the response in vivo, whereas repeated antigen stimulation results in the predominant use of the CCR4/MDC pathway. We propose that effector Th2 cells respond to both CCR3/eotaxin and CCR4/MDC pathways initially, but that a progressive increase in CCR4-positive cells results in the predomipredominance of the CCR4/MDC axis in the long-term recruitment of Th2 cells in vivo.Peer reviewe