Objective Climate Model Predictions Using Jeffreys' Prior: the General Multivariate Normal Case

Objective probabilistic forecasts of future climate that include parameter uncertainty can be made by using the Bayesian prediction integral with the prior set to Jeffreys' Prior. The calculations involved in determining the prior can then be simplified by making parametric assumptions about the distribution of the output from the climate model. The most obvious assumption to make is that the climate model output is normally distributed, in which case evaluating the prior becomes a question of evaluating gradients in the parameters of the normal distribution. In previous work we have considered the special cases of diagonal (but not constant) covariance matrix, and constant (but not diagonal) covariance matrix. We now derive expressions for the general multivariate normal distribution, with non-constant non-diagonal covariance matrix. The algebraic manipulation required is more complex than for the special cases, and involves some slightly esoteric matrix operations including taking the expectation of a vector quadratic form and differentiating the determinants, traces and inverses of matrices

Gastric Torsion

Gastric torsion, a rarely seen condition, is a 90-3600 twisting of the stomach upon itself, usually from left to right. It occurs most often in the large breeds of dogs such as the Great Dane, the St. Bernard and the Bloodhound. The common causes are the ingestion of large amounts of food or water, violent exercise or violent vomition. The typical clinical picture is the sudden onset of colic-like symptoms with a tense abdominal swelling just posterior to the rib cage. This abdominal swelling in turn will cause dyspnea, cyanosis and may develop into shock

Garden Cress in the Garden

This fact sheet describes garden cress in the garden, varieties, how to grow, problems, harvesting and storage, productivity, nutrition, and frequently asked questions

A Good Start: Two-Year Effects of a Freshmen Learning Community Program at Kingsborough Community College

Freshmen in a "learning community" at Kingsborough Community College in Brooklyn, NY, moved more quickly through developmental English requirements, took and passed more courses, and earned more credits in their first semester than students in a control group. Two years later, they were also somewhat more likely to be enrolled in college