Friend or Foe? Foreign investors and the liquidity of six Asian markets

Studying Foreign flows and the liquidity of six Asian markets we provide evidence of two empirical regularities: On the one hand, foreign trade has a negative but transitory impact on the overall liquidity of the market on a daily basis. This finding is shown consistent with two hypotheses: that foreign investors demand liquidity more aggressively than locals, and, to a lesser extent, that foreigners incorporate market-wide information. On the other hand, the overall share of foreign ownership in the market is positively related to improved liquidity, as shown in a sample of emerging markets, after controlling for a set of confounding factors. Overall, the results portray foreign investors as aggressive liquidity demanding, and nevertheless having a positive effect on the liquidity in short horizon

Liquidity spillover effects of equity offerings over dual-class shares

We study the spillover effect from equity offerings over dual-class shares. Whereas, evidence has been found that a seasoned equity offering improves stock liquidity, the effect over the liquidity of different type shares of the same firm has not been explored. We use equity offerings of five Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, during 1995 to 2012, because dual-class shares are widely used in the regions. In spite of the expected information asymmetry reduction, using panel data models we found a stock liquidity reduction of dual-class shares upon the offering; consistent with trading migration effects, according with the theory of inventory costs

Anuncios macroeconómicos y mercados Accionarios: El caso Latinoamericano

Reflejan los mercados accionarios los fundamentales macroeconómicos de un país?. La hipótesis de eficiencia semifuerte (Fama 1970) implica que los mercados accionarios deben reaccionar inmediatamente, y sin sobre ni subreacción predecible, a las sorpresas en los anuncios macroeconómicos relevantes. Ponemos a prueba esta implicación en los seis principales mercados accionarios de Latinoamérica: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Perú ante los anuncios de inflación, tasa de interés del banco central, PIB, balanza comercial y desempleo. Se discute el efecto esperado de una sorpresa en el anuncio de cada variable económica. Siguiendo a Flannery y Protopapadakis (2002), se estima el efecto sobre la media y la volatilidad de dichos anuncios mediante modelos de serie de tiempo univariados de volatilidad heterocesdástica controlando por los efectos de los rendimientos de índices internacionales y de la tasa de cambio. Entre los principales hallazgos se encuentra que los efectos de los anuncios solo son significativos y con el signo esperado para la inflación en México, para la tasa de interés en Chile y Colombia, y para el desempleo en estos tres mercados. Se encuentra además que, en determinados casos, los mercados no incorporan toda la información en el día del anuncio, y en otros, que reaccionan ante el anuncio en sí mismo controlando por la sorpresa, contrario a lo postulado por la hipótesis de eficiencia de mercado. Se concluye que los mercados accionarios latinoamericanos, solo reaccionan parcialmente a la información macro, y no con total eficiencia.Do stock markets reflect changes on the macroeconomic fundamentals? . The semi-strong form of the Efficient market hypothesis (HEM - Fama 1970) asserts that stock prices should react immediately to the surprise content on announcements of macroeconomic variables, without predictable over or under reaction. We test this in the six main Latin-American equity markets: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, México and Perú, for the announcements of Consumer Price Inflation, Central Bank interest rate, GDP growth, Trade Balance and Unemployment rate. Following Flannery and Protopapadakis (2002), we estimate the effect of the surprises of such announcements, using time series models of conditional volatility, controlling of the exchange rate and international stock markets. We found that the effects on the market returns are significant and with the expected sign only for the CPI in Mexico, for the interest rate in Chile and Colombia, and for Unemployment on those three markets. Moreover, in some cases the stock markets incorporate the announcement with a lag, whereas in others, they react to the announcement rather than to the surprise, in conflict with the HEM. We conclude that the Latin-American stock markets react only partially to the macroeconomic announcements and not fully incorporating the new information in an efficient manner

Anuncios macroeconómicos y mercados Accionarios: El caso Latinoamericano

¿Reflejan los mercados accionarios los fundamentales macroeconómicos de un país? La hipótesis de eficiencia semifuerte (Fama, 1970) implica que los mercados accionarios deben reaccionar inmediatamente, y sin sobre ni subreacción predecible, a las sorpresas en los anuncios macroeconómicos relevantes. Ponemos a prueba esta implicación en los seis principales mercados accionarios de Latinoamérica: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Perú ante los anuncios de inflación, tasa de interés del banco central, Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), balanza comercial y desempleo. Se discute el efecto esperado de una sorpresa en el anuncio de cada variable económica. Siguiendo a Flannery y Protopapadakis (2002), se estima el efecto sobre la media y la volatilidad de los rendimientos de dichos anuncios mediante modelos de serie de tiempo univariados de volatilidad heterocedástica controlando por los efectos de los rendimientos de índices internacionales y de la tasa de cambio. Entre los principales hallazgos se encuentra que los efectos de los anuncios solo son significativos y con el signo esperado para la inflación en México, para la tasa de interés en Chile y Colombia y para el desempleo en estos tres mercados. Se encuentra además que, en determinados casos, los mercados no incorporan toda la información en el día del anuncio y en otros, que reaccionan ante el anuncio en sí mismo controlando por la sorpresa, contrario a lo postulado por la hipótesis de eficiencia de mercado. Se concluye que los mercados accionarios latinoamericanos solo reaccionan parcialmente a la información macro, y no con total eficiencia

How does information disclosure affect liquidity? Evidence from an Emerging Market

Cross-sectional models positively relate firm information disclosure with stock liquidity, but dynamic models in news releases days show an opposite relation. We address this puzzle by studying the effects of information arrival on liquidity and its determinants. We use trade and quote data from Colombia for 2015 and 2016, along with the complete database of news releases as reported by companies to the regulator. The results of Panel data and PVAR models suggest that news releases increase both informed and uninformed trading. All in all, the temporal negative effect of news releases on liquidity is explained by increasing asymmetric information

Do foreign portfolio flows increase risk in emerging stock markets? Evidence from six Latin American countries

Foreign portfolio flows have been blamed for causing instability in emerging markets, especially during financial crises. This study measured the effect of foreign capital flows on volatility and exposure to world market risk in the six largest Latin American stock markets: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru, for around 10 years including the 2008 World financial crisis. This will test whether these flows cause instability for those markets and increase their exposure to international stock market returns. A proprietary database, from Emerging Portoflio.com and time series models, both univariate (ARCH-GARCH) and multivariate (VAR), are used to estimate the effect foreign portfolio flows on the risk variables and the causality of these effects. We found no strong evidence to support the hypothesis that foreign flows cause instability in the Latin American stock markets, in spite of some evidence of causing price pressure. Instead, the evidence points to a strong dependence of market returns on international stock and foreign exchange markets, both in means and in volatility, instrumental to transmit crisis to those markets

Are foreigners the vectors of Contagion? A study of six emerging markets

We investigate for the role of Foreigners, Local Institutions and Local individuals in days of Contagion in a set of six emerging markets from 2007 to 2016. We propose a new and intuitive continuous measure of Contagion based on the probability of a coincidence of daily negative returns in both the S&P500 and the local index, in excess of what can be explained by fundamentals. Using a VAR setting, we find that Foreigners sells induce Contagion, and that they keep selling in the following days. We also find evidence of Foreigners acting as the transmitters of large drops in the US stock market to emerging ones. Institutions also contribute to Contagion days with net sales, but they become net buyers from the day after. Finally, individuals are net buyers in Contagion days

Asimetría en la información y su efecto en los rendimientos en los mercados accionarios latinoamericanos

En este artículo se estima la probabilidad de transacciones informadas, su comportamiento y sus efectos en los rendimientos diarios e intradiarios en Latinoamérica. Calculando la probabilidad diaria dinámica de transacciones informadas (Easley, Engle, O’Hara y Wu, 2008), como una medida del nivel de información en las transacciones, se investiga si está relacionada con los volúmenes de negociación y la capitalización de mercado de las acciones en la muestra. Adicionalmente se busca una relación de corto plazo entre la probabilidad de transacciones informadas y los rendimientos. Se evaluaron 343 acciones en los seis principales mercados latinoamericanos, constituyéndose en el primer estudio en evaluar la dinámica de la asimetría de la información en los mercados de la región. Los resultados, consistentes con la teoría de microestructura de mercados, evidencian que existe un mayor nivel de asimetría en la información en las acciones con menor volumen de negociación y menor capitalización de mercado, y que los precios de las acciones se mueven en la dirección de la información, si bien parte de este efecto es revertido al día siguient

Does Information Asymmetry matter in emerging markets?. Evidence from six Latin American stock markets

Does informed trading affect emerging stock markets? Market microstructure literature establishes that information asymmetry reduces liquidity and moves prices in the direction of the trade. We test for this theoretical implication by running the dynamic PIN model of Easley, Engle, O’Hara y Wu (2008), for stocks of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. We use panel data models to test for the relation between PIN, as a measure of information asymmetry, bid-ask spreads, as a measure of liquidity, and returns. The reported results confirm the mentioned theoretical implications, the empirical validity dynamic PIN model, and contribute to a better understanding of price formation in emerging markets

Volatility transmission between US and Latin American Stock Markets: testing the decoupling hypothesis.

We test for volatility transmission between US and the six largest Latin American stock markets (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) using MGARCH-BEKK models in daily frequency from March 1993 to March 2013. As expected, we find strong evidence of volatility transmission from US to the Latin American markets but not so in the opposite direction. Testing the hypothesis of decoupling between US and Brazil and Mexico the evidence goes against it: the conditional correlations between US and the two emerging markets have steadily increased over the sample period and the volatility transmission have become more significant from 2003 onwards. We also find some evidence on the leadership of Brazil in the region, being the only Latin American stock market consistently transmitting volatility to US