Worldwide COVID-19 spreading explained: traveling numbers as a primary driver for the pandemic.

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the distribution of cases worldwide followed no clear biogeographic, climatic, or cultural trend. Conversely, the internationally busiest cities in all countries tended to be the hardest hit, suggesting a basic, mathematically neutral pattern of the new coronavirus early dissemination. We tested whether the number of flight passengers per time and the number of international frontiers could explain the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide by a stepwise regression. Analysis were taken by 22 May 2020, a period when one would claim that early patterns of the pandemic establishment were still detectable, despite of community transmission in various places. The number of passengers arriving in a country and the number of international borders explained significantly 49% of the variance in the distribution of the number of cases of COVID-19, and number of passengers explained significantly 14.2% of data variance for cases per million inhabitants. Ecological neutral theory may explain a considerable part of the early distribution of SARS-CoV-2 and should be taken into consideration to define preventive international actions before a next pandemic

Association of bovine leptin polymorphisms with energy output and energy storage traits in progeny tested Holstein-Friesian dairy cattle sires

peer-reviewedBackground: Leptin modulates appetite, energy expenditure and the reproductive axis by signalling via its receptor the status of body energy stores to the brain. The present study aimed to quantify the associations between 10 novel and known single nucleotide polymorphisms in genes coding for leptin and leptin receptor with performance traits in 848 Holstein-Friesian sires, estimated from performance of up to 43,117 daughter-parity records per sire. Results: All single nucleotide polymorphisms were segregating in this sample population and none deviated (P > 0.05) from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Complete linkage disequilibrium existed between the novel polymorphism LEP-1609, and the previously identified polymorphisms LEP-1457 and LEP-580. LEP-2470 associated (P < 0.05) with milk protein concentration and calf perinatal mortality. It had a tendency to associate with milk yield (P < 0.1). The G allele of LEP-1238 was associated (P < 0.05) with reduced milk fat concentration, reduced milk protein concentration, longer gestation length and tended to associate (P < 0.1) with an increase in calving difficulty, calf perinatal mortality and somatic cells in the milk. LEP-963 exhibited an association (P < 0.05) with milk fat concentration, milk protein concentration, calving difficulty and gestation length. It also tended to associate with milk yield (P < 0.1). The R25C SNP associated (P < 0.05) with milk fat concentration, milk protein concentration, calving difficulty and length of gestation. The T allele of the Y7F SNP significantly associated with reduced angularity (P < 0.01) and reduced milk protein yield (P < 0.05). There was also a tendency (P < 0.1) for Y7F to associate with increased body condition score, reduced milk yield and shorter gestation (P < 0.1). A80V associated with reduced survival in the herd (P < 0.05). Conclusions Several leptin polymorphisms (LEP-2470, LEP-1238, LEP-963, Y7F and R25C) associated with the energetically expensive process of lactogenesis. Only SNP Y7F associated with energy storage. Associations were also observed between leptin polymorphisms and calving difficulty, gestation length and calf perinatal mortality. The lack of an association between the leptin variants investigated with calving interval in this large data set would question the potential importance of these leptin variants, or indeed leptin, in selection for improved fertility in the Holstein-Friesian dairy cow.Department of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries, Ireland - Research Stimulus Fund (RSF-06-0353; RSF-06-0409); Irish Dairy Research Trust; Teagasc Walsh Fellowshi

Modeling Disease Vector Occurrence when Detection Is Imperfect: Infestation of Amazonian Palm Trees by Triatomine Bugs at Three Spatial Scales

Blood-sucking bugs of the genus Rhodnius are major vectors of Chagas disease. Control and surveillance of Chagas disease transmission critically depend on ascertaining whether households and nearby ecotopes (such as palm trees) are infested by these vectors. However, no bug detection technique works perfectly. Because more sensitive methods are more costly, vector searches face a trade-off between technical prowess and sample size. We compromise by using relatively inexpensive sampling techniques that can be applied multiple times to a large number of palms. With these replicated results, we estimate the probability of failing to detect bugs in a palm that is actually infested. We incorporate this information into our analyses to derive an unbiased estimate of palm infestation, and find it to be about 50% – twice the observed proportion of infested palms. We are then able to model the effects of regional, landscape, and local environmental variables on palm infestation. Individual palm attributes contribute overwhelmingly more than landscape or regional covariates to explaining infestation, suggesting that palm tree management can help mitigate risk locally. Our results illustrate how explicitly accounting for vector, pathogen, or host detection failures can substantially improve epidemiological parameter estimation when perfect detection techniques are unavailable