1933-41년 미국의 '선 독일 후 일본' 원칙의 사례

학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 외교학과, 2012. 2. 신욱희.본 연구는 미국의 2차 세계 대전 전쟁 전략이었던선 독일 후 일본 원칙의 수립원인을 분석하는 사례연구다.선 독일 후 일본원칙이란 영국을 대표로 하는 연합국과 함께 독일의 공격에 먼저 대응하고 이후에 자원을 집중하여 일본과의 전쟁에 집중하겠다는 전략이었다. 당시 미국의 전력은 대공황의 피해와 군축 협정 등으로 인해 위협 국가들과 압도적인 국력의 차이가 있지 않던 상태였고 독일과 일본을 상대로 동시에 전쟁을 치루는 것이 사실상 불가능하였다. 따라서 미국은 이러한 원칙을 수행하기 위해서 독일과의 전쟁을 준비하면서 일본과의 전쟁은 최대한 지연시키고자 했는데 본 연구는 왜 미국이 일본이 아니라 독일을 먼저 상대하고자 했는지, 다시 말해서선 독일 후 일본원칙 수립에 영향을 미친 요인이 무엇이었는지를 조명한다. 후술하겠지만 상당수의 역사 연구들은 1930년대 중후반 이후부터 2차 대전 직전까지 독일의 위협이 일본의 위협보다 압도적으로 높았음을 암묵적으로 전제하고 있다. 바로 그렇기 때문에선 독일 후 일본' 원칙의 수립에 가장 큰 영향을 미친 것은 외부 위협국가의 군사력 수준에서만 이해되고 있는 것이다. 이러한 주장은 독일, 일본 양국의 객관적인 국력만 비교했을 때 일정부분 설명력을 제공해 줄 수 있다. 하지만 이것은 정책결정 과정 내면을 분석하지 않은 표면적인 비교일 뿐이며 자세한 현실의 모습을 그려내지 못하는 한계를 지닌다. 이에 본 연구는 외부 위협 국가들의 위협수준 그 자체보다는 방어해야 하는 지역의 중요도 차이, 그리고 더욱 중요하게는 관념적인 차원에서 정책결정자들의 위협인식, 특히 최종 결정권자인 루즈벨트 대통령을 중심으로 이들의 인식이 정책결정에 영향을 미쳤음을 분석하고 이를 증명하고자 한다. 당시 미국의 정책결정자들에게 아시아 지역은 하나의 거대한 시장으로 인식되었다는 점은 간과할 수 없다. 하지만 아시아 국가들, 특히 중국을 상대로 한 미국의 무역, 투자 규모와 유럽 국가들과의 무역, 투자 규모를 비교해보면 후자가 훨씬 더 높은 비중을 차지했음을 알 수 있는데 이는 시장으로서 아시아 지역이 지니는 경제적 가치가 중요하긴 했으나 미국의 국가이익에 절대적이지는 않았음을 의미한다. 반면 유럽 지역의 경우 경제적 이해관계 뿐 아니라 안보적 측면이 중요하게 고려되었는데 이는 미국이 방어라인을 자신의 본토에 제한하지 않고 서반구와 대서양으로까지 확장시켰기 때문이다. 특히 영국과 프랑스의 함락은 이들의 해군력이 독일에게 넘어가는 것을 의미하는 것으로써 미국에게 실질적인 안보위협으로 다가왔던 것이다. 이와 더불어 본 연구에서는 국가이미지의 논의에 착안하여 위협인식을 분석한다. 루즈벨트와 주요 정책결정자들에게 독일과 일본은 양자 모두 자유와 민주주의의 가치를 위협하는 국가들이었음은 분명하다. 하지만 인종적 선입관으로 인해 일본보다는 독일이 더 우수한 인종, 국가로 인식되었다는 사실이 중요하다. 그렇기 때문에 한때 자유와 민주주의의 가치를 공유했던 독일이 잠시 잘못된 길을 가고 있는 것이라고 인식될 수 있었고 독일에 다시금 자유와 민주주의를 회복시킬 수 있다는 희망이 있었던 것이다. 반면에 일본은 전통적으로 신뢰할 수 없는 국가, 군국주의, 제국주의의 꿈에 젖어 있는 타락한 국가로 인식되었고 여기에 열등한 아시아인이라는 인종적 선입관이 더해져 일본의 실질적 위협을 과소평가하게 된 원인으로 작용하였다. 따라서 본 논문의 주장은 다음과 같다. 독일과 일본이라는 양자택일의 상황에서 독일과의 전쟁을 먼저 결심한 정책의 배경에는 첫째, 방어해야 하는 지역의 중요도에 있어서 일본의 위협에 직면한 아시아 지역보다는 독일에 위협에 직면한 유럽 지역의 방어가 훨씬 더 중요했고 둘째, 독일과 일본의 실질적인 군사적 위협보다는 자유와 민주주의라는 가치기준에 있어서 이를 회복시킬 수 있는 독일이 우선순위에 놓이게 된 것이며 셋째, 독일과의 전쟁을 끝마칠 때까지 일본이 잠자코 기다려 줄 것이라는 희망적 사고는 일본의 위협을 과소평가했기 때문에 가능했던 것이다. 끝으로 단일사례연구의 한계에도 불구하고 본 연구를 통해서 정책결정자들의 신념과 세계관, 그리고 인종적 선입관 등으로 구성된 인식이 중요한 변수로 작용할 수 있다는 것을 검증함으로써 위협인식 연구에 기여할 수 있다.This research is a case study that analyses the determining causes of 'Germany First' strategy of the U. S which was the major war plan during the Second World War. As stated in the title, 'Germany First' strategy refers to a war plan that, with a cooperation of the allied powers which Great Britain was a representative figure, prioritized Germany as a first enemy to defeat, and to deal with Japanese threat later with fully concentrated military strength. Due to the internal and external damage made from the Great Depression and disarmament agreement, there was no overwhelming gap of military strength between the U. S and threatening nations: fighting a war on two fronts, that is against Germany and Japan, was therefore virtually impossible. Under constraint of the situation, the U. S prepared for the war against Germany while she went all lengths to avoid and delay the war against Japan. The research question begins from this part; why did the U. S determine to deal with the threat of Germany instead of Japan? What were the determining causes that made the U. S establish the strategy? Majority of earlier studies tacitly agree that from mid-1930s and on the verge of the Second World war, the threat of Germany was overwhelmingly higher than that of Japan. Therefore there is no question to 'Germany First' strategy and the establishment of it has been understood only from the level of military power of threatening nations. This understanding can offer a certain degree of explanation, considering the objective gap of military power between Germany and Japan. Yet, without the internal decision making process, this still remains as a superficial explanation which fails to make a detailed account of reality. Thus, from the ideational perspective, the research analyses and attempts to prove that the perceptions of decision makers had a decisive effect on decision making process instead of the level of military power of threatening nations: among the decision makers, perceptions held by Franklin D. Roosevelt will be intensively highlighted considering his position as a final approving authority. The fact that Asia was regarded as a great market to policy maker in the U. S cannot be overlooked. However, in terms of trading volume, European nations captured far higher weight than Asian countries. This tells that though economic value in Asian region was important, the U. S did not regard it as a vital national interest. On the other hand, in terms of European region, the U. S had a matter of life and death since she expanded her border line to western hemisphere and the Atlantic, not to mention the economic importance in the region. In particular, a fall of Great Britain and France meant the loss of naval power to Germany which would then become a serious security threat to the U. S. Along with this, the research analyses threat perception based on the study of national image. It is certain that, to Roosevelt and key decision makers, both Germany and Japan were regarded as nations threatening the value of liberty and democracy. However, due to the racial preconception, Germany was perceived as a superior race and nation than Japan. Thus, though Germany is temporarily on the wrong track, there was a hope to restore who once shared those values. Japan, on the other hand, was perceived as a traditionally untrustworthy nation obsessed with the delusion of militarism and imperialism; in addition, racial preconception as an inferior Asian made underestimate the actual level of the threat. Therefore, under the situation where the U. S was forced to select one of the alternative enemies, the research made the following conclusions. First, in terms of the importance of region to defend, Europe being threatened by Germany was far more significant than Asia facing threat from Japan. Second, Germany was prioritized regarding values of liberty and democracy than Japan. Third, due to the underestimation of Japanese threat, there was a wishful thinking that Japan would wait until the U. S and allies end the war against Germany. Finally, the research can contribute to the study of threat perception with the verification of how perceptions, world-views and racial preconceptions held by decision makers can act as a key variable in explaining the political phenomenon.Maste

Study of Threat Perception in Decision Making Process: A Case of 'Germany First' Strategy

This research is a case study that analyses the determining causes of Germany First strategy of the U. S which was the major war plan during the Second World War. As stated in the title, Germany First strategy refers to a war plan that, with a cooperation of the allied powers which Great Britain was a representative figure, prioritized Germany as a first enemy to defeat, and to deal with Japanese threat later with fully concentrated military strength. The research analyses and attempts to prove that the perceptions of decision makers had a decisive effect on decision making process instead of the level ofmilitary power of threatening nations. Along with this, the research analyses threat perception based on the study of national image. It is certain that, to Roosevelt and key decision makers, both Germany and Japan were regarded as nations threatening the value of liberty and democracy. However, due to the racial preconception, Japan was perceived as a traditionally untrustworthy nation obsessed with the delusion of militarism and imperialism; in addition, racial preconception as an inferior Asian made underestimate the actual level of the threat. Because Japanese threat is underestimated, a wishful thinking that Japan would wait until the war with Germany is over prevailed among the decision makers and thereby allowed to established Germany First strategy

한국 일부 청소년의 지역별 식생활 평가

학위논문(석사)--서울대학교 대학원 :식품영양학과,2002.Maste

Analysis on the Characteristics of Water Qualiy in Prearranged Saemangeum Are

Hourly monitoring data from Saemangeum estuary, which is expected to become freshwater, was analyzed to evaluate the water quality characteristics. Higher algal growth at spring season than winter influenced the high ratio of organic nitrogen to total nitrogen and concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD). About 87.9% and 59.7% of organic nitrogen was observed at winter season and spring season, respectively. Daily salinity analysis at the mouth of two main rivers demonstrated that the Dongjin river was more influenced by tidal effect and showed higher variation than the Mankyung river. The ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus (N/P ratio) was different with site (estuary versus sea area) and season (winter versus spring) remarkably. The N/P ratio was highest (32.74 ~ 43.93) at estuary in winter and was lowest (1.78 ~ 3.06) at sea in spring. The high N/P ratio at estuary area implies that phosphorus can be the limiting nutrient factor for algal growth as in general freshwater river, therefore, water quality management practice considering river characteristics rather might be needed in the Saemangeum estuary. The Saemangeum project is nationally recognized for its environmental issues, and especially water quality concern is a critical factor to make policy decision and further assessment with continued monitoring is strongly recommended.N

[Republished study] Assessing Nutritional Status in Outpatients after Gastric Cancer Surgery: A Comparative Study of Five Nutritional Screening Tools

Objectives: This study examined the characteristics of patients according to nutritional status assessed by five nutritional screening tools: Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA), NUTRISCORE, Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), and Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) and to compare the agreement, sensitivity, and specificity of these tools. Methods: A total of 952 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy and chemotherapy from January 2009 to December 2012 were included. The patients were categorized into malnutrition and normal status according to five nutritional screening tools one month after surgery. The Spearman partial correlation, Cohens Kappa coefficient, the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity of each two screening tools were calculated. Results: Malnutrition was observed in 86.24% of patients based on the PG-SGA and 85.82% based on the NUTRISCORE. When NRI or CONUT were applied, the proportions of malnutrition were < 30%. Patients with malnutrition had lower intakes of energy and protein than normal patients when assessed using the PG-SGA, NUTRISCORE, or NRI. Lower levels of albumin, hemoglobin, total lymphocyte count, and total cholesterol and longer postoperative hospital stays were observed among patients with malnutrition compared to normal patients when NRI, PNI, or CONUT were applied. Relatively high agreement for NUTRISCORE relative to PG-SGA was found; the sensitivity was 90.86%, and the AUC was 0.78. When NRI, PNI, and CONUT were compared, the sensitivities were 23.72% for PNI relative to NRI, 44.53% for CONUT relative to NRI, and 90.91% for CONUT relative to PNI. The AUCs were 0.95 for NRI relative to PNI and 0.91 for CONUT relative to PNI. Conclusions: NUTRISCORE had a high sensitivity compared to PG-SGA, and CONUT had a high sensitivity compared to PNI. NRI had a high specificity compared to PNI. This relatively high sensitivity and specificity resulted in 77.00% agreement between PNI and CONUT and 77.94% agreement between NRI and PNI. Further cohort studies will be needed to determine if the nutritional status assessed by PG-SGA, NUTRISCORE, NRI, PNI, and CONUT predicts the gastric cancer prognosis.Y