금융위험 평가 자동화: 연설문 핫토픽 탐지, 뉴스 감성 분석 및 트위터 스팸 필터링

학위논문(박사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 공과대학 산업공학과, 2023. 8. 조성준.Text mining refers to the process of extracting interesting and significant information from textual data. It encompasses the process of performing various tasks such as hot topic detection, sentiment analysis, and spam filtering using a variety of text analysis tools including purpose-built frameworks, sentiment lexicons, and pretrained language models. Due to its broad applicability, text mining has been widely used to support decision making in various domains including politics, economics, and society. Especially, numerous researchers have attempted to assess financial risk by applying text mining techniques to financial texts. Since text mining-based approaches are less expensive in terms of time, human labor, and domain expertise than manual approaches, text mining enables real-time risk assessment that requires prompt detection of rapid changes in the financial domain. Most previous studies on financial text mining have directly applied general-purpose text analysis tools to financial texts. However, financial texts exhibit several linguistic characteristics that are distinct from those of general domain texts. Although several researchers have attempted to incorporate domain specificity of financial texts into text analysis tools, the detection of lexical items that play a crucial role in automated financial risk assessment has not been discussed sufficiently. In this dissertation, financial domain-specific text analysis tools that can detect hot topics, sentiment words, and spam messages, respectively, are proposed. The proposed tools would contribute to the automation of financial risk assessment by supporting early warning, explainable market sentiment analysis of news articles, and spam filtering on real-time data feeds, respectively. First, a hot topic detection framework that incorporates the temporal importance of keywords is proposed. The framework is applied to speeches made by the chairs of a central bank, showing the possibility of text mining-based early warning. Second, an automatically constructed sentiment lexicon addressing the financial ontology that the sentiment of a word may change depending on the presence of directional expressions is proposed. The lexicon is applied to benchmark datasets regarding economic news headlines, demonstrating the explainability of the market sentiment analysis process. Third, company-related knowledge-enhanced language models are proposed to detect spam messages that promote non-blue-chip stocks as if they are blue-chip stocks. Specifically, a framework that uses corporate reports as a textual knowledge base is proposed to enhance factual knowledge of the model. The framework employs a novel company name masking method, which masks tokens associated with company names, allowing the model to learn company-related factual information in a sentence. The spam filtering performance of language models built through the proposed framework is validated using Twitter benchmark datasets to demonstrate the viability of automatic spam filtering for real-time data feeds to automated systems.텍스트마이닝은 텍스트 데이터로부터 유용한 정보를 추출하는 과정을 일컫는 개념이다. 이는 특정 목적을 위해 설계된 프레임워크, 감성사전, 사전학습 언어모델 등의 텍스트 분석 도구를 활용하여 핫토픽 탐지, 감성 분석, 스팸 필터링 등의 과업을 수행하는 과정을 포괄한다. 텍스트마이닝이 그 광범위한 적용 가능성 덕분에 정치, 경제, 사회 등 다양한 도메인의 의사결정 과정을 돕는 데에 활용되어 온 한편, 많은 연구자들이 금융 텍스트에 텍스트마이닝을 적용하여 금융위험을 탐지하기 위한 시도를 수행해왔다. 텍스트마이닝 기반 방법은 수작업 기반 방법보다 시간, 노동력, 전문 지식 측면에서 비용 효율적인 방법으로서, 금융 도메인의 급변하는 양상을 신속하게 감지하는 실시간 위험 평가를 가능케 한다. 금융 텍스트마이닝과 관련한 대부분의 기존 연구들은 범도메인 텍스트 분석 도구를 금융 텍스트에 적용해왔다. 그러나 금융 텍스트는 일반 도메인의 텍스트와 구별되는 몇 가지 특징을 갖고 있다. 몇몇 연구자들이 텍스트 분석 도구에 금융 텍스트의 도메인 특수성을 반영하려는 시도를 수행해왔지만, 자동화된 금융위험 평가에 중요한 역할을 하는 어휘 항목을 탐지하는 것에 대해서는 아직 충분한 논의가 이루어지지 않았다. 본 논문에서는 핫토픽, 감성어 및 스팸 메시지를 탐지할 수 있는 금융 도메인 특화 텍스트 분석 도구를 제안한다. 제안된 도구들은 각각 금융위기 조기경보, 뉴스 기사 대상 설명가능한 시장심리 추정, 실시간 발생하는 데이터 대상 주식 관련 스팸 필터링을 지원함으로써 금융위험 평가 자동화에 기여할 것으로 기대된다. 첫째, 키워드의 시간적 중요도를 반영하는 핫토픽 탐지 프레임워크를 제안한다. 이 프레임워크는 중앙은행 총재의 연설문에 적용되어 텍스트마이닝 기반 조기경보시스템에의 가능성을 시사한다. 둘째, 어떤 단어의 감성이 그 주변에서 등장하는 방향성 단어의 존재 유무에 따라 변화할 수 있다는 금융 도메인 온톨로지를 반영하여 자동으로 구축된 감성사전을 제안한다. 경제 뉴스 헤드라인 벤치마크 데이터셋에 이 감성사전을 적용하여 제안하는 감성사전이 시장심리 추정 과정에 대한 설명력을 갖추었음을 입증한다. 셋째, 비우량주를 우량주인 것처럼 홍보하는 스팸 메시지를 탐지하기 위해 기업 관련 지식을 강화한 언어 모델을 제안한다. 구체적으로, 모델에 사실적 지식을 주입하기 위해 기업 보고서를 지식 기반으로 사용하는 지식 통합 프레임워크를 제안한다. 이 프레임워크에서 사용하는 마스킹 방법은 기업명에 해당하는 토큰을 마스킹함으로써 모델이 어떤 문장에 표현된 기업 관련 사실적 정보를 학습하게 한다. 제안하는 프레임워크를 통해 학습된 언어 모델의 스팸 필터링 성능은 트위터 벤치마크 데이터셋을 대상으로 검증되어 이러한 자동 스팸 필터링이 자동화 시스템에 데이터를 실시간으로 공급하는 데에 기여할 수 있다는 가능성을 입증한다.Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 Literature Review 11 2.1 Text Mining Techniques 11 2.1.1 Hot topic detection methods 11 2.1.2 Sentiment lexicons 13 2.1.3 Pretrained models 16 2.1.4 Knowledge enhancement methods for pretrained language models 19 2.2 Text Mining-based Early Warning 21 2.2.1 Macroeconomic indicator prediction 21 2.2.2 Risk factor identification 24 2.3 Explainable Market Sentiment Analysis 25 2.3.1 Knowledge graph-based approaches 25 2.3.2 Lexicon-based approaches 27 2.4 Stock-related Spam Filtering 28 2.4.1 Manual approaches 28 2.4.2 Data-driven approaches 28 Chapter 3 Hot Topic Detection for Early Warning 31 3.1 Background 31 3.2 Proposed Method 33 3.2.1 Extraction of hot topic candidates 34 3.2.2 Identification of quarterly hot topics 34 3.3 Experiments 36 3.3.1 Data description 36 3.3.2 Experimental settings 38 3.3.3 Experimental results 38 3.4 Chapter Summary 56 Chapter 4 Explainable Market Sentiment Analysis of News Articles 57 4.1 Background 57 4.2 Proposed Method 59 4.2.1 Senti-DD construction 60 4.2.2 Sentiment classification 63 4.3 Experiments 64 4.3.1 Data description 64 4.3.2 Experimental settings 66 4.3.3 Experimental results 68 4.4 Chapter Summary 74 Chapter 5 Spam Filtering on Real-time Data Feeds 77 5.1 Background 77 5.2 Proposed Method 80 5.2.1 Identification and normalization of company names 80 5.2.2 Company name masking 81 5.3 Experiments 82 5.3.1 Evaluation framework 82 5.3.2 Data description 83 5.3.3 Experimental settings 85 5.3.4 Experimental results 85 5.4 Chapter Summary 93 Chapter 6 Conclusion 95 Bibliography 103 국문초록 127박

초발 정신증 환자군과 정신증 임상적 고위험군에서 오류 관련 처리 이상에 관한 사건 관련 전위 연구

학위논문 (석사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 자연과학대학 뇌인지과학과, 2021. 2. 권준수.Background: Impaired event-related potential (ERP) indices reflecting performance monitoring systems have been consistently reported in patients with schizophrenia. However, whether these impairments exist from the beginning of the early phase of psychosis, such as in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients and individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis, has not yet been clearly explored. Methods: Thirty-seven FEP patients, 22 CHR subjects, and 22 healthy controls (HCs) performed a visual go/no-go task so that three ERP components associated with performance monitoring—error-related negativity (ERN), correct response negativity (CRN) and error positivity (Pe) —could be assessed. Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) with age and sex as covariates was used to compare ERN, CRN and Pe across groups. Results: Repeated measures ANOVA with age and sex as covariates revealed that FEP patients and CHR subjects showed significantly smaller ERN amplitudes at Fz (F = 4.980, p = 0.009) and FCz (F = 3.453, p = 0.037) electrode sites compared to those of HCs. Neither CRN nor Pe amplitudes showed significant group differences across FEP, CHR and HC groups. Conclusion: These findings suggest that performance monitoring is already compromised during the early course of psychotic disorders, evident in FEP patients and CHR subjects, as reflected in the reduced ERN amplitude. Taken together, ERN could serve as a potential indicator of early stages of psychosis.서론: 조현병 환자에서 행동 모니터링 시스템을 반영하는 사건 관련 전위의 손상은 지속적으로 보고되었다. 그러나 비교적 질환의 초기 단계인 초발 정신증 환자군과 조현병 전구기 증상을 보이는 정신증 임상적 고위험군에서도 이러한 손상이 나타나는지는 아직 잘 알려지지 않았다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 사건 관련 전위를 통해 반영된 행동 모니터링의 저하가 초발 정신증 환자군과 정신증 임상적 고위험군에서부터 관찰되는지 알아보고자 한다. 방법: 37명의 초발 정신증 환자군, 22명의 정신증 임상적 고위험군, 22명의 정상 대조군이 연구에 참여하여 행동 모니터링과 관련된 3개의 사건 관련 전위 구성 요소인 오류 관련 음전위 (ERN), 정반응 관련 음전위 (CRN), 오류 양전위 (Pe)를 측정하였다. 또한 성별과 연령의 공변량 분석을 통해 보정한 뒤 각 구성 요소들의 진폭, 잠복기 등의 차이가 있는지 분석하였다. 결과: 초발 정신증 환자군과 정신증 임상적 고위험군에서 정상 대조군에 비해 Fz (F = 4.980, p = 0.009)전극 부위와 FCz (F = 3.453, p = 0.037)전극 부위에서 오류 관련 음전위 (ERN)의 진폭이 현저하게 낮았고, 초발 정신증 환자군과 정신증 임상적 고위험군의 진폭은 서로 비슷한 정도로 저하되어 있었다. 정반응 관련 음전위 (CRN)과 오류 양전위 (Pe)의 진폭은 세 그룹 모두 유의미한 집단 간 차이를 보이지 않았다. 고찰: 본 연구의 결과는 초발 정신증 환자군과 정신증 임상적 고위험군에서 오류 관련 음전위 (ERN) 진폭의 저하를 통해 질환의 초기 단계에서 이미 행동 모니터링이 손상되었음을 시사한다. 종합해보자면, 본 연구의 결과들은 오류 관련 음전위 (ERN)은 정신증의 초기 단계를 확인할 수 있는 잠재적인 임상지표로서의 가능성을 제시한다.Chapter 1. Introduction 2 Chapter 2. Methods 7 Chapter 3. Results 18 Chapter 4. Discussion 34 References 41 Abstract in Korean 45Maste

Fecal Microbiota and Gut Microbe-Derived Extracellular Vesicles in Colorectal Cancer

The human microbiota comprises trillions of microbes, and the relationship between cancer and microbiota is very complex. The impact of fecal microbiota alterations on colorectal cancer (CRC) pathogenesis is emerging. This study analyzed changes in the microbial composition in CRC subjects with both fecal microbiota and gut microbe-derived extracellular vesicles (EVs). From August 2017 to August 2018, 70 CRC patients and 158 control subjects were enrolled in the study. Metagenomic profiling of fecal microbiota and gut microbe-derived EVs in stool was performed using 16S ribosomal DNA sequencing. Relative abundance, evenness, and diversity in both the gut microbiota and gut microbe-derived EVs were analyzed. Additionally, microbial composition changes according to the stage and location of CRC were analyzed. Microbial composition was significantly changed in CRC subjects compared to control subjects, with evenness and diversity significantly lower in the fecal microbiota of CRC subjects. Gut microbe-derived EVs of stool demonstrated significant differences in the microbial composition, evenness, and diversity in CRC subjects compared to the control subjects. Additionally, microbial composition, evenness, and diversity significantly changed in late CRC subjects compared to early CRC subjects with both fecal microbiota and gut microbe-derived EVs. Alistipes-derived EVs could be novel biomarkers for diagnosing CRC and predicting CRC stages. Ruminococcus 2-derived EVs significantly decreased in distal CRC subjects than in proximal CRC subjects. Gut microbe-derived EVs in CRC had a distinct microbial composition compared to the controls. Profiling of microbe-derived EVs may offer a novel biomarker for detecting and predicting CRC prognosis.ope

유엔 북한인권결의에 대한 중국의 입장

학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 국제대학원 국제학과, 2018. 2. 조영남.Since its first debate on North Koreas human rights issue in 1992, the United Nations has gradually publicized the issue over time. In 2003, a resolution condemning North Koreas human rights situation was eventually adopted in the UN Commission on Human Rights (UNCHR). Titled Situation of Human Rights in the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea, this was the first official resolution that could bring North Koreas human rights issue to the General Assembly. When the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) became a subsidiary body under the General Assembly in 2006, the resolution on human rights situation in the DPRK was adopted on an annual basis since then. With regards to this resolution, Peoples Republic of China has consistently voted against it. By revealing its opposition on discussing human rights issue of North Korea in the United Nations, China reinforced the non-intervention principle according to the UN Constitution and urged other member-states not to interfere with domestic affairs of the DPRK. Significantly, when North Koreas human rights issue was extended up to the Security Council level in 2014, the delegation of China publicly argued that politicizing North Koreas human rights issue in the Security Council was absolutely inappropriate. Regardless of the ups and downs in the Sino-North Korean relations, Chinas position on human rights issue of North Korea remains unchanged. When China was increasingly engaged with international human rights regime, it again did not give up on its role to stand as a defender of North Korea when it comes to the issue of human rights. Throughout the Cold War Era up until the Post-Cold War Era, Chinas position on the human rights issue of North Korea remained consistent in general. The only changes were noticed from the grounds of Chinas support for North Korea. Chinas support for North Korea during the Cold War Era was based on the strong ideological affinity, anti-imperialism alliance among Socialist countries, and the bipolar international system. On the contrary, there were significantly weakened implications of ideology, changes in Chinas foreign policy towards the Korean peninsula, and the emergence of the unipolar international system accompanied by the rise of China in the Post-Cold War Era. There could be a number of factors contributing to Chinas consistent opposition towards the resolution. One could be drawn from Chinas ideological homogeneity to North Korea. Sharing similar values on their perceptions of human rights, this could motivate China to prevent international condemnations on human rights in North Korea. Chinas poor records of domestic situation of human rights could also have affected its decision on the resolution, along with its controversial policy on North Korean refugees. To avoid the criticisms from the outside world on such issues, China could have actively defended on behalf of North Korea. Chinas reputation as the representative of developing countries with a veto power could provide another explanation for its decision as well. Faced with strategic competition with the United States in the multilateral arenas, Beijing was brought to stand against Washington in the international human rights regime. Whether which factor was more determinant than the other is not a matter of concern. Yet, it is important to note that the complex interplay between both domestic and international factors contributed in shaping Chinas position on the UN resolution of the situation of human rights in the DPRK. Speaking of China's intention behind its behaviors within the international human rights regime, China has maintained a high level of assertiveness when dealing with the issue of human rights in any multilateral settings. This has been consistent since China came under severe censure by the international society for the Tiananmen crackdown. Yet, there is a lack of evidence to demonstrate China's revisionist behavior within the current international human rights regimes. Rather, China's strategy leaned more towards the engagement. Beijing sought to comply with the established international norms of human rights and follow by global standard in formality.I. Introduction 1 1. Research Topic 1 2. Literature Review 8 3. Research Methodology 12 4. Analytical Framework 13 II. Chinas Position on the UN Resolution of the Situation of Human Rights in the DPRK 17 1. Human Rights in the Sino-North Korean Relations 17 1.1 Blood Alliance under Mao Zedong (1949-1976) 17 1.2 Friendly Relations under Deng Xiaoping (1978-1993) 20 1.3 Balanced Relations under Jiang Zemin (1994-2001) 23 1.4 Recovering Relations under Hu Jintao (2002-2011) 25 1.5 Deteriorating Relations under Xi Jinping (2012- ) 27 2. Chinas Activism in the International Human Rights Regime 29 2.1 System Reforming: Passive Leaner Phase (1971-1979) 29 2.2 System Maintaining: Active Participant Phase (1980-1989) 31 2.3 System Refraining: Active Defender Phase (The Early 1990s) 32 2.4 System Settling: Stable Member Phase (The Mid 1990s- ) 35 III. Contributing Factors Shaping Chinas Opposition 37 1. Ideological Homogeneity in the Definition of Human Right 37 1.1 Universal Human Rights based on Western Liberalism 37 1.2 Definition of Human Rights in China 39 1.3 Definition of Human Rights in North Korea 43 1.4 The Clash of Definition from Ideological Disparity 47 2. Domestic Issues with Human Rights and North Korean Refugees 49 2.1 Chinas Domestic Issues with Human Rights 49 2.2 Chinas Position on North Korean Refugees 56 2.3. Criticisms from the International Society 59 3. Chinas Reputation in the International Regimes 62 3.1 Representative of Developing Countries 62 3.2 A Permanent Member of the Security Council 64 3.3 The Rivalry between China and the United States 67 IV. Conclusion 72 Bibliography 76 국문 초록 82Maste

The reducing effect of neointimal hyperplasia by paclitaxel coating on the terminal part of ePTFE vascular grafts for hemodialysis

학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 화학부, 2012. 8. 박종상.신장말기 환자들이 혈액투석을 하기 위해서는 안정적인 혈관 접근로가 필요하다. 자가 혈관을 이용한 접근 방법이 가장 선호되는 방법이나, 고령의 환자들이나 당뇨병 환자들처럼 혈관이 좁은 환자들에게는 주로 인공혈관을 이용한 접근법이 시행된다. 그러나, 주로 expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE)재질로 만들어지는 인공혈관은 1년에 50 %, 2년에 25 %의 낮은 개존률을 나타낸다. 인공혈관을 이용한 접근로는 주로 정맥 문합 부위의 협착으로 인하여 사용이 중단된다. 협착은 주로 평활근 세포와 근섬유아세포로 이루어진 신내막 과증식에 의하여 발생하며, 후에 혈전이 생성되는 단계로 이어져 혈액의 흐름을 차단한다. 이번 연구에서, 인공혈관의 문합부위에서 발생하는 협착 및 신내막 과증식을 막기 위한 약물 전달 시스템을 개발하였다. 세포 증식을 억제하는 약물인 파클리탁셀을 인공혈관의 말단 부위에 국소적으로 코팅하였다. 파클리탁셀이 코팅된 인공혈관의 신내막 증식의 억제 효과를 확인하기 위하여, 돼지 모델을 이용한 동물실험을 진행하였다. 6 주간의 실험에서, 약물이 코팅된 인공혈관의 개존률은 대조군에 비해 증가하였다. 문합 부분의 신내막 면적과 협착률 역시 대조군(75.0 ± 10.5 %, 7.5 ± 1.7 mm2) 에 비해 약물이 코팅된 인공혈관(26.8 ± 6.6 %, 3.4 ± 1.0 mm2 )에서 현저하게 줄어들었다. 이번 실험에서, 적은 양의 약물을 사용하였음에도 불구하고, 인공혈관 말단 3 cm의 약물 코팅은 신내막 과증식을 억제하는데 효과가 있음을 확인하였다.Stenosis associated with neointimal hyperplasia plays a key role in the failure of synthetic hemodialysis vascular grafts. It was demonstrated that the local delivery of paclitaxel coated on the graft effectively prevented this stenosis. Because more than half of stenosis cases arise within 3 cm of the venous anastomosis, we coated the terminal part of the expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE) grafts with paclitaxel to minimize the drug dose and systemic toxicity. We evaluated the effectiveness of this new design in a pig model. The terminal part of the ePTFE graft was dip-coated with paclitaxel at a dose of 0.58 μg/mm2, the total amount of paclitaxel loaded on the graft was 0.66 mg. A 15 cm-long ePTFE graft was surgically implanted between the common carotid artery and external jugular vein in 8 female Landrace pigs. Animals received grafts coated with paclitaxel and were sacrificed 6 weeks after graft placement. Histomorphometric analysis was performed to compare the neointimal areas and the percentages of luminal stenosis between the coated group and the control group. Paclitaxel-coated vascular grafts significantly suppressed neointimal hyperplasia compared with the control group (P = 0.026). Whereas 7 of 8 paclitaxel-coated grafts were patent, only 1 of the 6 control grafts was patent. The mean ± standard error values of the percentage of luminal stenosis were 26.9 ± 5.1 % (coated group) and 75.7 ± 12.7 % (control). The values for the neointimal area were 3.99 ± 1.01 mm2 (coated group) and 8.77 ± 1.66 mm2 (control). Despite the lower amount of drug loading used in the present study, paclitaxel coating on the terminal part of ePTFE hemodialysis grafts effectively reduced neointimal hyperplasia at the venous anastomosis.1. Introduction …………………………………………….…………...1 2. Materials and Methods ……………………………….…….……….4 3. Results …………………………….…………………….……........10 4. Discussion …………………………………………………..……..14 5. Conclusion ……………………………………………………..…..18 6. References ……………………………………………….…….…..19 7. Figures ………………………………………………….……….…22 8. Abstract in Korean (국문 초록) ……………………………….….28Maste

Clinical factors to predict flare-up in patients with inflammatory bowel disease during international air travel: A prospective study

Backgrounds and aims: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients often experience disease flare-ups during international air travel. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with IBD flare-up during international air travel. Methods: Patients with scheduled international air travel were enrolled in the study from the Seoul National University Bundang Hospital IBD clinic. Flight information and clinical data were collected via questionnaires and personal interviews, and risk factors associated with IBD flares were determined. Results: Between May 2018 and February 2020, 94 patients were prospectively enrolled in the study (mean age, 33.0 years; males, 53.2%; mean disease duration, 56.7 months), including 56 (59.6%) with ulcerative colitis and 38 (40.4%) with Crohn's disease. Of the 94 patients enrolled, 15 (16.0%) experienced an IBD flare-up and 79 (84.0%) remained in remission throughout travel. Logistic regression analysis revealed that high fecal calprotectin levels before travel (odds ratio [OR]: 1.001, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.000-1.001, p = 0.016), the presence of a comorbidity (OR: 6.334, 95% CI: 1.129-35.526, p = 0.036), and history of emergency room visit (OR: 5.283, 95% CI: 1.085-25.724, p = 0.039) were positively associated with disease flare-up. The previous and current use of immunomodulators and biologics, time of flight, altitude, number countries visited, travel duration, objective of visit, and previous medical consultations were not associated with disease flare-up. Conclusions: Elevated fecal calprotectin levels, history of emergency room visits, and the presence of a comorbidity predicted IBD flare-up during international air travel.ope

공공선택이론에 기반한 온실가스 감축 실패 사례 분석과 법 ･ 정책 대안의 모색

학위논문(박사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 법과대학 법학과, 2021.8. 허성욱.A stable climate without rapid climate change constitutes a global public good. Due to the nature of public goods, the benefits of a stable climate are shared regardless of whether or not additional efforts and costs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are paid to maintain them. Therefore, there could be motivation for many countries, companies, and people to become free riders when they are required to take part in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This contributes to the difficulties inherent in collective efforts to cope with climate change. For this reason, climate change is considered the biggest “market failure” facing mankind, and governmental policy intervention is justified to correct such market failure. In terms of public choice theory, government involvement requires our attention as it has the potential to be seen as “government failure”. The purpose of this study is to analyze the aspects of government failures related to reducing greenhouse gas emissions through analysis of the Korean government’s climate & energy policies, and to propose alternatives to climate & energy laws and policies through case analysis and comparative law studies based on public choice theory. The theory of public choice refers to a series of economic studies on non-market decision making. It was expected that by paying attention to the choice of actors in the process of establishing as well as implementing climate & energy laws and policies, it would provide a useful theoretical basis for analyzing the causes of the government failures regarding reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, prior to the case study, this study first examined the theoretical and empirical findings of government failures from the perspective of public choice theory and derived an analysis framework for government failures concerning achieving the goal of reducing national greenhouse gas emissions. According to existing public choice theory studies, participants seek rational choices to maximize their utility even in the policy market. This could lead to situations in which citizens are in a rational state of ignorance, politicians are motivated by maximizing votes, and officials by budgets, suggesting that the government failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may also be the result of behaviors of maximizing the individual utilities of different actors in the policy market. Prior to analyzing domestic cases using this framework, Chapter 3 conducted a case study on the experience of forming and implementing climate and energy policies in Germany, Britain, and France, among other European countries that have been relatively successful in terms of greenhouse gas emissions reduction. All of these countries are achieving steady downward trends in greenhouse gas emissions up to current date, but also have experienced failure in the past and/or very recently to coordinate between climate and energy policies. Efforts to overcome such failures are currently underway. Recently, it has been confirmed that all countries that have established a goal of “carbon neutrality by 2050”, established new climate policy accordingly, and are taking measures to reflect this in climate & energy laws and policies. Research found that their efforts have many characteristics in common. First, the national greenhouse gas reduction target was set based on scientific evidence. Reduction targets of key sectors, such as the energy sector, were specifically set and legislated in accordance with this national target. Second, it inspected and refluxed the implementation of policies and the achievement of each target through the establishment of an independent expert committee. Third, not only were creative ideas reflected in policy decisions by expanding opportunities for citizens’ direct participation, but also via trying to form social consensus in drawing new reduction policies. Based on these case studies on European countries, Chapter 4 examined the cases of the Korean government to reduce greenhouse gas by utilizing the analysis framework derived through prior studies of public choice theory. The climate & energy policy failed based on the analysis of excessive introduction of coal power generation facilities in the basic plan for power supply and demand, delays and lax design of emission trading legislation, and failure to determine additional means of reduction for the 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reduction roadmap. These case studies show that Korea's failure to reduce greenhouse gases has been largely attributed to regulatory failures due to the active pursuit of interests from industries, and to bureaucratic failures of governmental officials whose preferences are closely tied with the nation’s economic growth resisting in embracing new policy goal of reducing greenhouse gases. Legislative failure which was caused by politicians and lawmakers who lacked incentives to produce results by persistently pursuing these policy alternatives did exist in some cases, even if they showed signs of responding to climate change based on the motivation to maximize votes. It was also found that there would have been a lack of opportunities in general for environmental organizations and ordinary citizens to be organized and have their opinions reflected in the policy process. In order to overcome this failure of climate & energy policies and achieve greenhouse gas reduction, regulating policy-making processes to ensure transparent and fair policy decisions are made will be more important than adjusting ex-post redistribution of gains. Chapter 5 proposed that the final conclusion should be to effectively regulate the climate & energy law and policy-making and implementation process with the aim of effectively reflecting the demands of climate science and various social preferences.급격한 기후변화가 없는 안정된 기후는 지구적 공공재에 해당한다. 공공재의 특성상 안정된 기후로 인한 혜택은 기후변화 대응을 위해 온실가스 감축과 같은 추가적인 노력과 비용을 지불하는지 여부와 상관없이 공유된다. 따라서 온실가스 감축에 참여해야 하는 많은 국가, 기업, 국민에게는 무임승차의 유인이 존재하며, 이러한 무임승차 유인은 집합적인 기후변화 대응 노력을 어렵게 한다. 이와 같은 이유로 기후변화 문제는 인류가 직면한 가장 거대한 ‘시장 실패(market failure)’로 평가되고, 시장 실패를 교정하기 위한 정부의 정책적 개입이 정당화된다. 공공선택이론의 관점에서 이러한 정부의 개입은 ‘정부 실패(government failure)’의 가능성을 안고 있는 만큼 주의를 요한다. 본 연구는 그간 한국 정부의 기후･에너지 정책의 형성과 집행 과정에 대한 분석을 통해 온실가스 감축과 관련한 정부 실패의 양상을 파악하고, 공공선택이론에 근거한 사례 분석과 비교법 연구를 통해 그 원인을 진단함과 동시에 해결 방안으로 기후 및 에너지 법·정책에 대한 새로운 규율 방안을 제안하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 공공선택이론은 비시장적 의사결정에 관한 일련의 경제학적 연구를 일컫는다. 실제 규제가 형성되는 과정에서 행위 주체들의 선택에 주목함으로써 온실가스 감축 실패 현상의 원인 분석에 있어 유용한 이론적 근거를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대하였다. 본격적인 사례 연구에 앞서 우선 공공선택이론의 관점에서 그간 이루어진 정부 실패에 대한 이론적, 실증적 탐구의 결과를 살피고, 국가 온실가스 감축에 관한 정부 실패 사례의 분석을 위한 분석틀을 도출하였다. 기존의 공공선택이론 연구에 따르면 정책 결정 과정에서 참여자들은 시장에서와 마찬가지로 자신의 효용을 극대화하기 위한 합리적 선택을 추구한다. 따라 다수의 일반 투표자들이 합리적 무지 상태에 놓인 가운데, 정치인들은 득표극대화 동기, 관료들은 조직과 예산, 재량 극대화 동기, 이익집단은 지대추구 동기 등에 따라 움직이는 상황이 발생할 수 있으며, 이는 온실가스 감축에 관한 정부 실패 역시 기후 및 에너지 정책의 결정과 이행 과정에서 이러한 요인들이 작용한 결과일 수 있음을 시사한다. 이와 같은 분석틀을 활용해 국내 사례를 분석하기에 앞서 제3장에서는 온실가스 감축목표 달성에 비교적 성공적인 결과를 거두고 있는 유럽 국가 중에서도 독일, 영국, 프랑스를 중심으로 기후 및 에너지 정책의 형성과 집행 과정의 경험에 대해 사례 분석을 실시하였다. 이들 국가는 모두 꾸준한 온실가스 감축의 성과를 거두고 있으나, 기존의 이해관계에 따른 정책시장 참여자들의 자기 이익 추구 행동에 따라 기후･에너지 정책 간의 조율에 실패했던 경험이 있다. 이러한 실패의 극복을 위한 노력은 현재 진행 중이다. 최근에는 연구 대상으로 삼은 모든 국가가 ‘2050년 탄소중립’이라는 목표를 세우고, 이에 맞추어 새로운 기후 정책을 수립하며, 이를 에너지 법･정책에 반영하기 위한 조치를 취하고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 이들의 기후·에너지 법·정책에는 많은 공통점이 존재한다. 첫째, 과학적 근거를 바탕으로 국가 온실가스 감축목표를 설정하고, 이러한 감축목표에 맞추어 에너지 부문 등 핵심 부문의 정책 목표를 구체적으로 정해 법제화하고 있었다. 둘째, 부문별 온실가스 감축목표의 수립과 이행 성과를 독립적인 전문가위원회를 통해 점검하고 환류하는 절차를 갖추고 있었다. 셋째, 새로운 감축정책 도출에 있어 시민의 직접 참여 기회를 확대함으로써 민간의 창의적인 아이디어가 정책 결정에 반영되도록 함은 물론이고, 온실가스 감축에 필요한 사회적 합의를 이끌어내기 위해 노력하고 있었다. 이러한 해외 사례 연구를 바탕으로 제4장에서는 공공선택이론의 선행 연구를 통하여 도출한 분석틀을 활용해 한국 정부의 온실가스 감축 실패 사례를 살펴보았다. 그간 기후·에너지 정책 간 조율 시도에 있어 가장 눈에 띄는 실패의 순간으로 전력수급기본계획에서의 석탄발전 설비 과다 도입 결정, 배출권거래제법의 통과 지연과 느슨한 설계, 2030 온실가스 감축 로드맵 수정 시 전환 부문 추가 감축 수단 확정 실패 사례 등을 분석한 결과, 한국에서 그간의 온실가스 감축 실패를 초래한 기후 정책과 에너지 정책의 조율 실패의 근원에는 i) 산업계의 지대추구 행위가 상당히 노골적으로 진행되어 온 가운데, ii) 관련 정책 결정 과정에서 느슨한 환경 규제를 희망하는 부처 관료의 재량극대화 행동이 관료 실패를 야기하고 있으며, iii) 이러한 정부 실패를 견제할 수 있도록 강력한 온실가스 감축정책에 대한 대중의 희망, 환경단체의 요구가 조직적으로 정책 과정에 반영될 수 있는 절차의 미비함 등이 자리하고 있음을 확인하였다. 이러한 실패를 극복하고 온실가스 감축을 이루어 내기 위해서는 정책 결정 결과로 이루어진 사후적인 이익분배 상태의 조정보다는 투명하고 공정한 정책 결정이 이루어질 수 있도록 정책 결정 과정에 대한 절차적 보완이 더욱 중요할 것이다. 이상과 같은 탐구 과정을 통해 제5장에서는 최종 결론으로 이익집단의 지대추구 활동에서 벗어나 기후과학의 요구, 기후변화 대응에 관한 다양한 사회적 선호를 국가 온실가스 감축목표 및 감축정책 수립 과정에 효과적으로 반영하고, 에너지 정책과의 조율이 원활하게 이루어질 수 있도록 i) 온실가스 감축목표와 감축 수단의 선정에 있어 준수해야 할 실체적 요건과 절차적 요건에 대한 규율을 강화하고, ii) 온실가스 감축정책의 이행책임이 있는 유관 부처 관료의 적극적인 감축정책을 이끌어낼 수 있도록 부문별 감축목표를 수립하도록 하고, 감축 성과의 주기적 점검, 감축목표 초과 시 조치 등을 관련 법령에 규정하고, 부처간 이해관계에서 독립된 전문가위원회 등을 중심으로 연간 평가 체계를 구축하는 등 세밀한 이행 체계를 갖추고, iii) 온실가스 감축정책의 원활한 추진을 위하여 보다 많은 시민에게 기후･에너지 정책 결정 과정에 참여할 기회를 제시하는 등 기후 및 에너지 법･정책의 수립과 이행 과정을 새롭게 규율해 나갈 것을 제안하였다.제 1 장 서론 1 제 1 절 연구의 배경 및 목적 1 제 2 절 연구의 대상 11 제 3 절 연구의 방법 16 제 4 절 연구의 구성 19 제 2 장 이론적 배경과 선행 연구 분석 21 제 1 절 서론 21 제 2 절 공공선택이론의 의의 23 제 3 절 정부 실패와 공공선택이론 33 제 4 절 분석틀의 도출 47 제 3 장 해외 사례 연구 50 제 1 절 사례 연구의 개요 50 제 2 절 독일 55 제 3 절 영국 82 제 4 절 프랑스 106 제 5 절 소결 126 제 4 장 한국의 기후･에너지 법･정책과 정부 실패 135 제 1 절 한국의 기후 법･정책 형성 과정 135 제 2 절 한국의 에너지 법･정책 변동 162 제 3 절 기후･에너지 정책의 조율 실패 사례 연구 184 제 4 절 소결 225 제 5 장 한국의 기후･에너지 법･정책 규율 방안 231 제 1 절 해결 방향의 도출 231 제 2 절 기후･에너지 법･정책의 새로운 규율 방안 234 제 3 절 기후위기 대응을 위한 제언 247 제 4 절 공공선택이론의 함의 260 제 6 장 결 론 264 제 1 절 연구의 결과 요약 264 제 2 절 연구의 의의와 한계 270 참고문헌 272 Abstract 308박

Measures of muscle mass and fat mass in the identification of metabolic abnormalities in older Korean adults

보건대학원/석사OBJECTIVES: We investigated the association of the sex-associated changes of muscle mass and fat mass with metabolic abnormalities in an older Korean population. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the baseline data from the cohort study conducted in the Korean Urban Rural Elderly (KURE) study, which is a population-based longitudinal study of health determinants among elderly persons aged 65 years or older (381 men, 747 women). Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program’s ATP-III criteria (≥3 of the following abnormalities): waist circumference greater than 90 cm in men and 80 cm in women; serum triglycerides level of at least 150 mg/dL; high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level of less than 40 mg/dL in men and 50 mg/dL in women; blood pressure of at least 130/85 mmHg; or serum glucose level of at least 100 mg/dL. The association between muscle and fat mass and metabolic syndrome was assessed by serial logistic regression models. RESULTS: Fat mass was significantly associated with all components of the metabolic syndrome in both sexes. After adjustment for potential confounders including fat mass, muscle mass was associated with high blood pressure (ASM/Ht2; OR= 2.46, 95% CI = 1.61-3.75), low HDL cholesterol (ASM; OR= 1.91, 95% CI = 1.17-2.88 and ASM/Ht2; OR= 2.25, 95% CI = 1.49-3.38), high glucose (ASM; OR= 1.61, 95% CI = 1.05-2.48) and metabolic syndrome (ASM/Ht2; OR= 1.65, 95% CI = 1.12-2.42) for women and low HDL cholesterol (ASM/Ht2; OR= 1.88, 95% CI = 1.01-3.49) for men. CONCLUSIONS: In older persons, fat mass was associated with all of the metabolic syndrome components. In contrast, muscle mass was associated with all of the metabolic syndrome components in women, but not in men. More studies are needed to explain the sex difference of the associations.ope

Which biologic agents increase perioperative complications in patients with inflammatory bowel disease?

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Resting heart rate is associated with colorectal advanced adenoma

Background and aims: Resting heart rate is an independent predictor of colorectal cancer (CRC) development and CRC-related mortality. However, little is known about the relationship between resting heart rate and colorectal adenoma development. We aimed to investigate this association in a population who underwent screening colonoscopy. Methods: Among 39,021 patients who underwent both electrocardiogram and screening colonoscopy during routine health examinations at the Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Health Promotion Center, Korea from January 2014 to July 2019, 1,344 patients had advanced adenoma. We performed 1:1 propensity score (PS) matching to establish a control group that mitigated the confounding effects of age and sex. We performed multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify the independent risk factors of advanced adenoma development. Results: Resting heart rate was significantly higher in the advanced adenoma group than in the control group. The prevalence of advanced polyp increased across the quartiles of resting heart rate. Patients with higher resting heart rates were more likely to be older, smokers, and have increased blood pressure and DM and less likely to engage in active exercises than those with lower resting heart rates. Patients with higher resting heart rates had higher serum glucose, triglyceride, hemoglobin A1C, and insulin levels and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Patients with resting heart rate in the highest quartile (≥71 bpm) still showed significantly increased odds ratio (OR) of advanced adenoma development (OR: 1.379, 95% confidence interval: 1.099-1.731, p = 0.006). Conclusions: High resting heart rate was a meaningful independent risk factor of advanced adenoma development.ope