台灣地區稻米公私有庫存之分析

出版單位:台灣大學農業經濟

台灣地區稻米公私有庫存之分析

出版單位:中國農村經濟學

綜合診斷在農業之應用

為學習企業診斷理論與手法，累積農業界使用之經驗，更期望進 一步內化為農業企業經營之知識，農試所規劃辦理農民組織綜合診斷 實務演練活動，經討論後擇定苗栗縣後龍鎮農會辦理；本案由農委會 企劃處魏簡任技正碧珠、苗栗區農業改良場鍾課長國雄、農業試驗所 張組長采蘋與楊副研究員世華，在優碩企管顧問公司游顧問振昌協助 下組成診斷小組進行後龍鎮農會經營管理綜合診斷工作，其中並帶領 農委會培訓之 28 位經營管理顧問專家進行 2 天一夜之綜合診斷工作 營，互相討論與腦力激盪後，提出短期改善建議 5 項，中長期發展建 議 3 項如下： 短期改善建議 既有品牌（台灣好米）強化市場區隔行銷活動 盤點具特色農產品發展二次加工產品開發 配合作物產期舉辦產業文化活動 活絡總資產及淨值週轉率 建立部門績效管理與會議管控機制結合 中長期發展建議 整體年營收目標應提升至 2.4 億 結合地方文化發展二次產業 農業專區經營自然無毒農

Priorities of dredging sites for the river sections of debris disasters caused by Typhoon Morakot in the Chishan streams

Taiwan is located on the Eurasian plate coupled with the fragile geological conditions and the phenomenon of earthquake occurred frequently. The abundant but uneven distribution of annual rainfall is concentrating in the rainy and typhoon season from May to September, which is easily to cause the disasters of floods, landslides and debris flows, and show a great threat to the human lives and properties. Typhoon Morakot hit southern mountains seriously in Taiwan caused several collapses and heavy sedimentation in the watersheds. It is necessary to set the priorities of dredging, promote the dredging efficiency and control the flow chart of dredging in the channels due to a wide range of debris deposition. This study focused on the assessment of sediment yields for the river sections of main channel and/or tributaries located at the watershed of Chishan streams, which suffered severe damages during the hits of typhoon Morakot. The results show that the amounts of landslides is about 7.624 x107 m3 in the watershed, and the outputs of total sediment yields is some 1.262 x107 m3 from the outlet, there is still 6.362 x107m3 remains in the watershed. Seventeen control points are placed at the junctions of main stream and tributaries to analyze the sediment yields of each channel section.While the section of A11-12 and A14-A15 depicts tremendous deposition because of several landslides resulted in sedimentation. The section of A14-A15 is screened as the first priority of dredging because of the amount of sediment sedimentation and the protected targets along the river banks. The treatments and quantities of debris deposition can be effectively controlled and the dredging efficiency can then be further promoted through the establishment of mechanism for the dredging management. This study can be applied as the references of dredging related authorities.台灣位處歐亞板塊與菲律賓海板塊之交界，地質條件脆弱，加上地震及高強度、長延時降雨頻繁，且雨量多集中於五月至九月的梅雨與颱風季節，易造成洪水、地滑、土石流等災害，對民眾生命財產威脅極大。八八風災重創南部山區，集水區多處崩塌，使河川水系堆積土砂料源範圍廣大且河道淤積嚴重，為有效選出河道優先清疏區位之順序，及提升河道清疏效率、砂石流向管控，本研究針對莫拉克颱風受創嚴重之旗山溪集水區為樣區，推估風災後旗山溪主、支流各河段之泥砂產量，考量各河段未輸出土砂量、兩岸保全對象之安危作為河段清疏區位優選之參考。結果顯示莫拉克風災旗山溪集水區之崩塌量約7,624 萬立方公尺，河道總輸出土砂量1,262 萬立方公尺，未輸出土砂量約為6,362 萬立方公尺。針對旗山溪主流處標示17 處控制點，進行控制點間河段之土砂量分析，各控制點以A11-A12 及A14-A15 河段堆積嚴重。考量各河段未輸出土砂量及兩岸保全對象之安危，以A14-A15 河段為最優先清疏區位；經由制定清疏之管控機制，有效的管控砂石流向及數量，進而提升清疏效率，研究結果可提供相關單位清疏之參考

On Public and Private Rice Stock Holdings in Taiwan

[[abstract]]今年初米價暴漲、上漲幅度為近年來僅見，引起了社會大眾極大的關切，也突顯出公、私有庫存的推估與掌控的重要。公有庫存的收撥有一定的程序，較易掌控，至於掌握在糧商與農民手中的私有庫存則不易估算。本文比較文獻中有關臺灣地區稻米私有庫存量的推估方法，並加以改進，透過稻米需求面月別資料的推估，求算各月份稻米私有庫存量，並對公私有庫存相對變動及穩定性加以分析，期有助於政府對民間存糧數量與流向的掌握，俾以建立稻米安全存糧的收撥制度，確保我國的糧食安全。有關公私有庫存變動，經本文的分析，年中庫存量之波動情形因稻米產業的特有結構通常大於年底庫存量之變動，總庫存量歷年頗穩定，但公私有庫存之結構有很大的變化。由公私有庫存變動的分析亦可看出，我國稻米政策降低私人庫存意願，使得糧源流向公有庫存，形成政府一大財政負擔。[[abstract]]The recent dramatic price increase in rice has drawn lots of concerns and has also brought into focus the importance of on-line monitoring of public and private holdings of Taiwan's rice stock. In contrast to conventional approach, this paper uses monthly data and improves the method in estimating the rice stock hlodings. Stability and structural changes in public and private rice hlodings are analyzed. It is found that fluctuations in mid-year rice stock are more volatile than those in end-year stock. Moreover, rice program has reduced the incentives of private holders and farmers. The public sector has been forced to accumulate the increasing rice stock residual and therefore incurs lots of budget deficit burden

Factors Associated with Nurse Aides Who Willingness to Retention: Example of Long-Term Care Facilities in Taipei

[[abstract]]Taiwan has an aging population, which means the need for long-term care is increasing. Long-term care is a human-oriented service industry whose main manpower is provided by health care workers; therefore, the purpose of this research was to focus on the factors associated with nursing aides who are willing to stay on the job in order to improve the quality of patient care. Data were collected between March and April 2003 using cross-sectional study design and based on a questionnaire. Research samples were taken from 196 nurse aides from 15 long-term care facilities located in districts of Taipei city. The results showed that (1) there was a statistically significant negative correlation between nursing aides' level of education and willingness to stay on the job(r =-.24, p＜.01); (2 )there was a statistically significant positive correlation between nursing aides' work experience (r=.16, p＜.05), health condition (r =.18, p＜.05) , and willingness to stay on the job; (3) there was a statistically significant positive correlation between bed occupancy rates and nursing aides' willingness to stay on the job (r=.31, p＜.01); (4) there was a statistically significant positive correlation between nursing aides' job satisfaction and willingness to stay on the job (r =.63, p＜.01). According to the results of regression analysis, the predictors of willingness to stay on in long-term care are level of education, bed occupancy rates, and job satisfaction (40% of total variance). It is hoped that this information will be applied to future policy development of retention strategies in long-term care in Taiwan

Assessing Structural Knowledge: A Comparison of Pathfinder and Concept Mapping

[[abstract]]徑路搜尋法（ Pathfinder ）是近年來應用十分廣泛的知識結構測量方法，概念構圖法 ( concept mapping)則是理論基礎十分完備的教學和評量策略。本研究嘗試將概念構圖法中「引出知識」和「表徵知識結構」的步驟、徑路搜尋法中的知識結構評量算則 ( C 指數)以及 Novak & Gowin ( 1984 )的概念構圖計分法等加以結合，設計出概念構圖相似指數（ CMC ）及 Novak-Gowin 指數（N-G ) 。本研究以 153 名大學生為對象，以教育心理學的「學習理論」為材料，評估概念構圖法的兩個知識結構指數 CMC 及 N-G ，和徑路搜尋法的兩個知識結構指數 PFC 及 PRX ，對學習成就的預測效果、對不同成就學生的區別效果、與各指數的重疊與獨立性。結果有以下的發現： 1.以徑路搜尋法求得的知識結構指數對學習成就的解釋量， PFC 為 36 % , PRX 為 16 % ；以概念構圖法求得的兩個指數對學習成就的解釋量， CMC 為 36 % , N-G 為 23 ％。兩種測量方法所提供的知識結構指數具有可接受的預測效度。 2.應用四種知識結構指數，PFC、PRX 、 CMC 及 N-G 來區別不同學習成就的學生時， PRX 並沒有顯著的區別力。但 PFC，CMC 及 N-G等三種指數可以有效地區別不同學習成就的學生，準確性達 80 ％。3.藉由不同的引出知識、表徵知識結構和評量知識結構等步驟求出的 PFC，CMC 和 N-G 指數，彼此間具有中度的相關。以淨相關分析排除某一指數的影響效果後，其他兩種指數仍能維持與學習成就的顯著相關。可見以不同方法求得的知識結構指數彼此有其獨立的成份存在，未必為其他指數的成份所能涵括。