The Spanish block of the ESCB-multi-country model

This paper presents the Spanish country block (ES-MCM) of the ESCB Multi-Country Model for the euro area, which has been built in a close co-operation with the ECB and the Banco de Espaa. The theoretical structure of the ES-MCM block is in line with most current mainstream macro models, i.e. the supply factors determine the long-run equilibrium, while in the short run output is demand-determined, resulting from a sluggish adjustment of prices and quantities. The paper is structured as follows. First, a simplified theoretical counterpart of the ES-MCM block is presented and its steady-state comparative statistics and stock-flow equilibrium properties are studied. The theoretical analysis is followed by the review of the estimated equations of the ES-MCM block. Finally the simulation properties of the ES-MCM block are presented in the light of five alternative shock simulations. JEL Classification: E10, E13, E17

Modeling framework for comparing taxi operational modes: case study in Barcelona

This paper presents an aggregated mathematical model for the estimation of key performance indicators of the taxi market based on the system’s generalized cost function, which is calculated using the expected statistical values of customers’ trip distance, waiting/access time and the cost of the involved actors, including externalities, who are the taxi drivers, the taxi customers and the city represented by the rest of the drivers and the citizens. Optimum values for the taxi supply are obtained from mathematical formulations depending on the demand level and the size of the city. The model is developed for stand, hailing and dispatching taxi markets and the results are compared, presenting conclusions for the best type of market for each demand level and city size. The model is applied in the city of Barcelona, presenting useful conclusions on the performance indicators of the taxi services and the impact of the applied policies as well as the optimum number of taxis for each operational mode, ranging between 30 and 40 vehicles per hour and km2.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Recent Trends in the Spanish Banking Sector

Evento: NPL-DAYS ESPAÑA. Organizado por: DD TalksThe decline in lending accelerated in 2023Q1, with a significant drop for SMEs. The pace of loan repayments has accelerated in most segments. Interest rates on new loans for house purchase and to NFCs are in line with the Euribor, unlike those on new deposits. Higher interest rates will entail a further repricing of mortgages in 2023. Non-performing loans continued to decline, although the NPL and stage 2 ratios stabilised in the quarter. The outstanding balance of ICO loans declined in recent quarters. Listed banks’ earnings grew notably in 2023 Q1, driven by higher net interest income

Technology and finance: new risks plus new challenges or traditional risks in new suits?

Evento: “Meeting Global Challenges Through Innovation”. Organizado por: City WeekTechnology could bring important efficiency gains to the financial system and also to financial authorities. But, evidence shows that it could have costs if not properly managed. At the very least we should ensure that the principle of “same business, same risk, same rules” is upheld. But we should also assume that there are still unknowns and that some situations would call for a more cautious approach. Technology is already evolving at a rapid pace, one that, to date, neither regulation nor supervision has managed to hold back. Risk management and industry awareness will continue to be key

Short and medium term risks for the Spanish financial sector

Evento: 13th Spanish Capital Markets Conference. Organizado por: AFME y AEBThis new shock to the Spanish economy comes amid a gradual recovery, which remained incomplete, uneven across sectors and influenced by the course of the pandemic and continuous upside inflation surprises since mid 2021. In this environment, banks should remain cautious and the supervisors closely monitor any potential materialisation of the identified risks, in order to taken action to mitigate them

Potential Growth and Business Cycle in the Spanish Economy: Implications for Fiscal Policy

An accurately estimation of the cyclical position of an economy is a necessary condition for the success of fiscal stabilisation policies. In this paper we show that the estimation of the output gap by means of decomposing a production function produces similar results to univariate and multivariate methods, increasing their robustness and allowing us to conclude that most of the information on the economic cycle is included in the cyclical component of the unemployment rate. The results also indicate that there is reduced uncertainty about the periods when the Spanish economy has clearly been in a deep recession or in a sharp expansion. These periods have been limited and of relatively short duration. Fiscal policy should pay particular attention to these episodes, when discretionary stabilisation policies make most sense.potential growth, business cycle, speed-limit policies

An evaluation of urban consolidation centers through continuous analysis with non-equal market share companies

This paper analyzes the logistic cost savings caused by the implementation of Urban Consolidation Centers (UCC) in a dense area of a city. In these urban terminals, freight flows from interurban carriers are consolidated and transferred to a neutral last-mile carrier to perform final deliveries. This operation would reduce both last-mile fleet size and average distance cost. Our UCC modeling approach is focused on continuous analytic models for the general case of carriers with different market shares. Savings are highly sensitive to the design of the system: the increment of capacity in interurban vehicles and the proximity of the UCC terminal to the area in relation to current distribution centers. An exhaustive collection of possible market shares distributions are discussed. Results show that market shares distribution does not affect cost savings significantly. The analysis of the proposed model also highlights the trade-off between savings in the system and a minimum market share per company when the consolidation center is established.Postprint (published version

Optimization on emergency materials dispatching considering the characteristics of integrated emergency response for large-scale marine oil spills

Many governments have been strengthening the construction of hardware facilities and equipment to prevent and control marine oil spills. However, in order to deal with large-scale marine oil spills more efficiently, emergency materials dispatching algorithm still needs further optimization. The present study presents a methodology for emergency materials dispatching optimization based on four steps, combined with the construction of Chinese oil spill response capacity. First, the present emergency response procedure for large-scale marine oil spills should be analyzed. Second, in accordance with different grade accidents, the demands of all kinds of emergency materials are replaced by an equivalent volume that can unify the units. Third, constraint conditions of the emergency materials dispatching optimization model should be presented, and the objective function of the model should be postulated with the purpose of minimizing the largest sailing time of all oil spill emergency disposal vessels, and the difference in sailing time among vessels that belong to the same emergency materials collection and distribution point. Finally, the present study applies a toolbox and optimization solver to optimize the emergency materials dispatching problem. A calculation example is presented, highlighting the sensibility of the results at different grades of oil spills. The present research would be helpful for emergency managers in tackling an efficient materials dispatching scheme, while considering the integrated emergency response procedure.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Does size really matter? Dual distribution channel with vans and autonomous delivery devices

E-commerce sales worldwide are expected to skyrocket in future years, increasing freight traffic in cities. In this context, sidewalk autonomous delivery devices (ADDs) show great potentialities to decrease carriers’ last-mile operation costs. Nevertheless, because their speed, size and range will be limited, ADDs seem more adapted to the delivery of small items. The objective of this paper is to estimate the carrier’s total operation costs in a dual delivery channel. If its size is lower than a given threshold, the parcel is delivered to the customer via a logistics micro-hub and ADDs. Otherwise, if the parcel is bigger than the given threshold, it is delivered through a conventional supply chain with delivery vans. The carrier’s total operation costs are the sum of the costs induced by the two distribution channels. Assuming that the parcel size follows a known probability distribution function, the carrier’s total operation costs are estimated using the continuous approximation methodology. Different probability distribution functions modelling the size of the parcels are studied in the paper. Finally, the dual distribution channel is optimized considering the size threshold as a decision variable of the system.The first author would like to personally acknowledge CARNET Barcelona for the funding of this research article, developed in the framework of his PhD thesis.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Current Trends in Simheuristics: from smart transportation to agent-based simheuristics

Simheuristics extend metaheuristics by adding a simulation layer that allows the optimization component to deal efficiently with scenarios under uncertainty. This presentation reviews both initial as well as recent applications of simheuristics, mainly in the area of logistics and transportation. We also discuss a novel agent-based simheuristic (ABSH) approach that combines simheuristic and multi-agent systems to efficiently solve stochastic combinatorial optimization problems. The presentation is based on papers [1], [2], and [3], which have been already accepted in the prestigious Winter Simulation Conference.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version