Happiness and the Human Development Index : the paradox of Australia

According to the well-being measure known as the U.N. Human Development Index, Australia now ranks 3rd in the world and higher than all other English-speaking nations. This paper questions that assessment. It reviews work on the economics of happiness, considers implications for policymakers, and explores where Australia lies in international subjective well-being rankings. Using new data on approximately 50,000 randomly sampled individuals from 35 nations, the paper shows that Australians have some of the lowest levels of job satisfaction in the world. Moreover, among the sub-sample of English-speaking nations, where a common language should help subjective measures to be reliable, Australia performs poorly on a range of happiness indicators. The paper discusses this paradox. Our purpose is not to reject HDI methods, but rather to argue that much remains to be understood in this area

Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population

The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multi-agent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability actually increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

A Combined EM and Visual Tracking Probabilistic Model for Robust Mosaicking: Application to Fetoscopy

Twin-to-Twin Transfusion Syndrome (TTTS) is a progressive pregnancy complication in which inter-twin vascular connections in the shared placenta result in a blood flow imbalance between the twins. The most effective therapy is to sever these connections by laser photo-coagulation. However, the limited field of view of the fetoscope hinders their identification. A potential solution is to augment the surgeon’s view by creating a mosaic image of the placenta. State-of-the-art mosaicking methods use feature-based ap- proaches, which have three main limitations: (i) they are not robust against corrupt data e.g. blurred frames, (ii) tem- poral information is not used, (iii) the resulting mosaic suf- fers from drift. We introduce a probabilistic temporal model that incorporates electromagnetic and visual tracking data to achieve a robust mosaic with reduced drift. By assuming planarity of the imaged object, the nRT decomposition can be used to parametrize the state vector. Finally, we tackle the non-linear nature of the problem in a numerically stable manner by using the Square Root Unscented Kalman Filter. We show an improvement in performance in terms of robustness as well as a reduction of the drift in comparison to state-of-the-art methods in synthetic, phantom and ex vivo datasets

On the monotone stability approach to BSDEs with jumps: Extensions, concrete criteria and examples

We show a concise extension of the monotone stability approach to backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) that are jointly driven by a Brownian motion and a random measure for jumps, which could be of infinite activity with a non-deterministic and time inhomogeneous compensator. The BSDE generator function can be non convex and needs not to satisfy global Lipschitz conditions in the jump integrand. We contribute concrete criteria, that are easy to verify, for results on existence and uniqueness of bounded solutions to BSDEs with jumps, and on comparison and a-priori $L^{\infty}$-bounds. Several examples and counter examples are discussed to shed light on the scope and applicability of different assumptions, and we provide an overview of major applications in finance and optimal control.Comment: 28 pages. Added DOI https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-22285-7_1 for final publication, corrected typo (missing gamma) in example 4.1

Truncated Power Laws Reveal a Link between Low-Level Behavioral Processes and Grouping Patterns in a Colonial Bird

Background: Departures from power law group size frequency distributions have been proposed as a useful tool to link individual behavior with population patterns and dynamics, although examples are scarce for wild animal populations. Methodology/Principal Findings: We studied a population of Lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) breeding in groups (colonies) from one to ca. 40 breeding pairs in 10,000 km 2 in NE Spain. A 3.5 fold steady population increase occurred during the eight-year study period, accompanied by a geographical expansion from an initial subpopulation which in turn remained stable in numbers. This population instability was mainly driven by first-breeders, which are less competitive at breeding sites, being relegated to breed solitarily or in small colony sizes, and disperse farther than adults. Colony size frequency distributions shifted from an initial power law to a truncated power law mirroring population increase. Thus, we hypothesized that population instability was behind the truncation of the power law. Accordingly, we found a power law distribution through years in the initial subpopulation, and a match between the power law breakpoint (at ca. ten pairs) and those colony sizes from which the despotic behavior of colony owners started to impair the settlement of newcomers. Moreover, the instability hypothesis was further supported by snapshot data from another population of Lesser kestrels in SW Spain suffering a population decline. Conclusions/Significance: Appropriate analysis of the scaling properties of grouping patterns has unraveled the lin

Nominal or Real? The Impact of Regional Price Levels on Satisfaction with Life

According to economic theory, real income, i.e., nominal income adjusted for purchasing power, should be the relevant source of life satisfaction. Previous work, however, has only studied the impact of inflation adjusted nominal income and not taken into account regional differences in purchasing power. Therefore, we use a novel data set to study how regional price levels affect satisfaction with life. The data set comprises about 7 million data points that are used to construct a price level for each of the 428 administrative districts in Germany. We estimate pooled OLS and ordered probit models that include a comprehensive set of individual level, time-varying and time-invariant control variables as well as control variables that capture district heterogeneity other than the price level. Our results show that higher price levels significantly reduce life satisfaction. Furthermore, we find that a higher price level tends to induce a larger loss in life satisfaction than a corresponding decrease in nominal income. A formal test of neutrality of money, however, does not reject neutrality of money. Our results provide an argument in favor of regional indexation of government transfer payments such as social welfare benefits