Agent-based financial markets and New Keynesian macroeconomics: A synthesis

We combine a simple agent-based model of financial markets and a New Keynesian macroeconomic model with bounded rationality via two straightforward channels. The result is a macroeconomic model that allows for the endogenous development of business cycles and stock price bubbles. We show that market sentiments exert important influence on the macroeconomy. They introduce high volatility into impulse-response functions of macroeconomic variables and thus make the effect of a given shock hard to predict. We also analyze the impact of different financial transaction taxes (FTT, FAT, progressive FAT) and find that such taxes can be used to stabilize the economy and raise funds from the financial sector as a contribution to the costs produced by the recent crisis. Our results suggest that the FTT leads to higher tax revenues and better stabilization results then the FAT. However, the FTT might also create huge distortion if set too high, a threat which the FAT does not imply. --Agent-based modeling,stock market,New Keynesian macroeconomics,financial transaction tax,financial activities tax

Barro-Gordon revisited: reputational equilibria in a New Keynesian model

The aim of this paper is to solve the inconsistency problem à la Barro and Gordon within a New Keynesian model and to derive time-consistent (stable) interest rate rules of Taylor-type. We find a multiplicity of stable rules. In contrast to the Kydland/Prescott-Barro/Gordon approach, implementing a monetary rule where the cost and benefit resulting from inconsistent policy coincide - which implies a net gain of inconsistent policy behavior equal to zero - is not optimal. Instead, the solution can be improved by moving into the time-consistent area where the net gain of inconsistent policy is negative. We moreover show that under a standard calibration, the standard Taylor rule is stable in the case of a cost-push shock as well as under simultaneous supply and demand shocks. --Optimal monetary policy,New Keynesian macroeconomics,Reputational equilibria,time-consistent simple rules

Monetary and fiscal policy dynamics in an asymmetric monetary union

This paper investigates the dynamic effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a monetary union, which is characterized by asymmetric interest rate transmission. This asymmetry gives rise to intertemporal reversals in the relative effectiveness of policy on member country outputs. The direction and the number of these reversals depend on whether policies are unanticipated or anticipated. We also study the coordination between monetary and fiscal policy in a monetary union. Monetary policy may completely stabilize European output after unanticipated fiscal policy shocks. With anticipated fiscal policy shocks, complete stabilization throughout the overall adjustment process requires monetary policy to be time-inconsistent. --European Monetary Union,fiscal policy,monetary policy,policy coordination,spillover effects,time inconsistency

Oil Price Shocks and Cyclical Dynamics in an Asymmetric Monetary Union

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of anticipated and unanticipated oil price increases in a small two-country monetary union, which is simultaneously characterized by asymmetric wage adjustments and asymmetric interest rate sensitivities of private absorption. Common external oil price disturbances lead in this asymmetric macroeconomic setup to temporary divergences in output developments across the monetary union. In the case of anticipated oil price increases the relative cyclical position is reversed in the course of the adjustment process. Complete stabilization of the output variables throughout the overall adjustment process requires a restrictive monetary policy being time inconsistent from a quantitative but time consistent from a qualitative point of view. That means that the central bank credibly announces a future reduction in the growth rate of the nominal money stock but actually implements a reduction, which is less restrictive than the original announcement.EMU; international policy transmission; oil price shock; time inconsistency; monetary policy

Agent-based financial markets and New Keynesian macroeconomics: A synthesis

We combine a simple agent-based model of financial markets with a standard New Keynesian macroeconomic model via two straightforward channels. The result is a macroeconomic model that allows for the endogenous development of stock price bubbles. Even with such a simplistic comprehensive model, we can show that the behavioral foundations of the stock market exert important influence on the macroeconomy, e.g. they change the impulse-response functions of macroeconomic variables significantly. We also analyze financial market transaction taxes as well as asset price bubble deflating monetary policy, and find that both can be used to reduce volatility and distortion of the macroeconomic aggregates. --agent-based financial markets,New Keynesian macroeconomics,stock market,transaction tax,Taylor rule

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Dynamics in an Asymmetric Monetary Union

This paper investigates the dynamic effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a monetary union, which is characterized by asymmetric interest rate transmission. This asymmetry gives rise to intertemporal reversals in the relative effectiveness of policy on member country outputs. The direction and the number of these reversals depend on whether policies are unanticipated or anticipated. We also study the coordination between monetary and fiscal policy in a monetary union. Monetary policy may completely stabilize European output after unanticipated fiscal policy shocks. With anticipated fiscal policy shocks, complete stabilization throughout the overall adjustment process requires monetary policy to be time-inconsistent.European Monetary Union, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Policy Coordination

Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Large Asymmetric Monetary Union - A Dynamic Three-Country Analysis

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of anticipated monetary and fis- cal policies in a large monetary union, which is characterized by asym- metric interest rate transmission. We explicitly solve the asymmetric three-country model using the decomposition methods of Aoki (1981) and Fukuda (1993). Anticipated monetary and fiscal expansions lead to negative international spillovers and to intertemporal reversals in the re- lative effectiveness of policy on member country outputs. Intertemporal international coordination of monetary policies between Euroland and the US is able to stabilize the output adjustment processes induced by an anticipated unilateral fiscal expansion. --Monetary Union,Fiscal Policy,Monetary Policy,Policy Coordination

Foreign price shocks and monetary policy in an asymmetric monetary union

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of anticipated and unanticipated foreign price increases of imported raw materials for a small two-country monetary union, which is simultaneously characterized by asymmetric wage adjustments and asymmetric interest rate sensitivities of private absorption. It is shown that both types of input price disturbances lead to temporary divergences in output developments across the monetary union. In the case of anticipated materials price increases the relative cyclical position of output effects is reversed in the course of the adjustment process. With anticipated input price increases complete stabilization of the output variables throughout the overall adjustment process requires restrictive monetary policy to be time-inconsistent from a quantitative but time-consistent from a qualitative point of view. That means that the central bank credibly announces a future reduction in the growth rate of nominal money stock but actually realizes a decrease in the monetary growth rate, which is less restrictive than the announcement. --EMU,international policy transmission,oil price shock,time inconsistency

Unfolding the air vanes on a supersonic air-launched missile

ASALM (Advanced Strategic Air-Launched Missile) is a supersonic air vehicle designed to be air-launched from a carrier aircraft. The four aft aerodynamic control vanes are folded to maximize the number of missiles carried on-board. The unfolding (erection) system must be small, energetic, fast, and strong. The materials selected and problems that arose during development of the unfolding system are described

Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Asymmetric Monetary Union§

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of anticipated and unanticipated oil price increases in a small two-country monetary union, which is simultaneously characterized by asymmetric wage adjustments and asymmetric interest rate sensitivities of private absorption. It is shown that both types of oil price disturbances lead to temporary divergences in output developments across the monetary union. In the case of anticipated oil price increases the relative cyclical position of output effects is reversed in the course of the adjustment process. With anticipated oil price increases complete stabilization of the output variables throughout the overall adjustment process requires restrictive monetary policy to be time-inconsistent from a quantitative but time-consistent from a qualitative point of view. That means that the central bank credibly announces a future reduction in the growth rate of nominal money stock but actually realizes a decrease in the monetary growth rate, which is less restrictive than the announcement. --EMU,international policy transmission,oil price shock,time inconsistency