Evaluating a Self-Organizing Map for Clustering and Visualizing Optimum Currency Area Criteria

Optimum currency area (OCA) theory attempts to define the geographical region in which it would maximize economic efficiency to have a single currency. In this paper, the focus is on prospective and current members of the Economic and Monetary Union. For this task, a self-organizing neural network, the Self-organizing map (SOM), is combined with hierarchical clustering for a two-level approach to clustering and visualizing OCA criteria. The output of the SOM is a topologically preserved two-dimensional grid. The final models are evaluated based on both clustering tendencies and accuracy measures. Thereafter, the two-dimensional grid of the chosen model is used for visual assessment of the OCA criteria, while its clustering results are projected onto a geographic map.Self-organizing maps, Optimum Currency Area, projection, clustering, geospatial visualization

REFLECTIVE PRACTICE OF EFL TEACHERS ON STUDENTS’ WRITING SKILL DEVELOPMENT IN INDONESIAN SECONDARY EDUCATION

ABSTRACT Reflective Practice of EFL Teachers on Students’ Writing Skill Development in Indonesian Secondary Education. (Supervised by Kisman Salija and Sahril). Teachers as the main actor in the language classroom has played essential role in developing students language skills especially writing skills. The aim of this study was to get (1) whether or not the use of Reflective Practice of EFL Teachers develop the students’ writing skill at the eleventh grade students of Pesantren IMMIM and (2) the students’ perception toward the use of Reflective Practice of EFL Teachers in writing process. The sample of this study was eleventh grade students of pesantren IMMIM in which were taken by means of purposive sampling. The data was collected through treatment from quasi experimental design by providing pre-test, six meetings for treatment, and post-test. In addition, The data were collected with two instruments: writing test and questionnaire. The result of this research showed that 5.686 with the degree freedom (df) 58 at the level of significant p= 0.05 was higher than the t-table (2.042). Based on the finding and discussion of this research gave description that there was a significant difference between the eleventh grade students of experimental class who was taught by using Reflective Practice of EFL Teachers and control class who was taught by using individual work in writing. Teaching writing through Reflective Practice of EFL Teachers more effective rather than using individual work method. Besides, the analysis of questionnaire indicated that the students’ perception toward the use of Reflective Practice of EFL Teachers were very positive. Keywords: Reflective Practice, EFL Teachers, Writing skill, Indonesian Secondary Educatio

Bank Networks from Text: Interrelations, Centrality and Determinants

In the wake of the still ongoing global financial crisis, bank interdependencies have come into focus in trying to assess linkages among banks and systemic risk. To date, such analysis has largely been based on numerical data. By contrast, this study attempts to gain further insight into bank interconnections by tapping into financial discourse. We present a text-to-network process, which has its basis in co-occurrences of bank names and can be analyzed quantitatively and visualized. To quantify bank importance, we propose an information centrality measure to rank and assess trends of bank centrality in discussion. For qualitative assessment of bank networks, we put forward a visual, interactive interface for better illustrating network structures. We illustrate the text-based approach on European Large and Complex Banking Groups (LCBGs) during the ongoing financial crisis by quantifying bank interrelations and centrality from discussion in 3M news articles, spanning 2007Q1 to 2014Q3.Comment: Quantitative Finance, forthcoming in 201

Mapping the State of Financial Stability

The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks on a two-dimensional plane as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional representation of a multidimensional financial stability space and thus allows disentangling the individual sources impacting on systemic risks. The SOFSM can be used to monitor macro-financial vulnerabilities by locating a country in the financial stability cycle: being it either in the pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis or tranquil state. In addition, the SOFSM performs better than or equally well as a logit model in classifying in-sample data and predicting out-of-sample the global financial crisis that started in 2007. Model robustness is tested by varying the thresholds of the models, the policymaker’s preferences, and the forecasting horizon.systemic financial crisis; systemic risk; self-organizing maps; visualisation; prediction; macroprudential supervision

Mapping the state of financial stability

The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional representation of a multidimensional financial stability space that allows disentangling the individual sources impacting on systemic risks. The SOFSM can be used to monitor macro-financial vulnerabilities by locating a country in the financial stability cycle: being it either in the pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis or tranquil state. In addition, the SOFSM performs better than or equally well as a logit model in classifying in-sample data and predicting out-of-sample the global financial crisis that started in 2007. Model robustness is tested by varying the thresholds of the models, the policymaker’s preferences, and the forecasting horizons. JEL Classification: E44, E58, F01, F37, G01macroprudential supervision, prediction, Self-Organizing Map (SOM), Systemic financial crisis, systemic risk, visualization