Footballonomics: The Anatomy of American Football; Evidence from 7 years of NFL game data

Do NFL teams make rational decisions? What factors potentially affect the probability of wining a game in NFL? How can a team come back from a demoralizing interception? In this study we begin by examining the hypothesis of rational coaching, that is, coaching decisions are always rational with respect to the maximization of the expected points scored. We reject this hypothesis by analyzing the decisions made in the past 7 NFL seasons for two particular plays; (i) the Point(s) After Touchdown (PAT) and (ii) the fourth down decisions. Having rejected the rational coaching hypothesis we move on to examine how the detailed game data collected can potentially inform game-day decisions. While NFL teams personnel definitely have an intuition on which factors are crucial for winning a game, in this work we take a data-driven approach and provide quantifiable evidence using a large dataset of NFL games for the 7-year period between 2009 and 2015. In particular, we use a logistic regression model to identify the impact and the corresponding statistical significance of factors such as possession time, number of penalty yards, balance between passing and rushing offense etc. Our results clearly imply that avoiding turnovers is the best strategy for winning a game but turnovers can be overcome with letting the offense on the field for more time. Finally we combine our descriptive model with statistical bootstrap in order to provide a prediction engine for upcoming NFL games. Our evaluations indicate that even by only considering a small number of (straightforward) factors, we can achieve a very good prediction accuracy. In particular, the average accuracy during seasons 2014 and 2015 is approximately 63%. This performance is comparable to the more complicated state-of-the-art prediction systems, while it outperforms expert analysts 60% of the time.Comment: Working study - Papers has been presented at the Machine Learning and Data Mining for Sports Analytics 2016 workshop and accepted at PLOS ON

A Cognitive-based scheme for user reliability and expertise assessment in Q&A social networks

Q&A social media has gained a great deal of attention during recent years. People rely on these sites to obtain information due to the number of advantages they offer as compared to conventional sources of knowledge (e.g., asynchronous and convenient access). However, for the same question one may find highly contradictory answers, causing ambiguity with respect to the correct information. This can be attributed to the presence of unreliable and/or non-expert users. In this work, we propose a novel approach for estimating the reliability and expertise of a user based on human cognitive traits. Every user can individually estimate these values based on local pairwise interactions. We examine the convergence performance of our algorithm and we find that it can accurately assess the reliability and the expertise of a user and can successfully react to the latter's behavior change. © 2011 IEEE

Collaborative assessment of information provider's reliability and expertise using subjective logic

Q&A social media have gained a lot of attention during the recent years. People rely on these sites to obtain information due to a number of advantages they offer as compared to conventional sources of knowledge (e.g., asynchronous and convenient access). However, for the same question one may find highly contradicting answers, causing an ambiguity with respect to the correct information. This can be attributed to the presence of unreliable and/or non-expert users. These two attributes (reliability and expertise) significantly affect the quality of the answer/information provided. We present a novel approach for estimating these user's characteristics relying on human cognitive traits. In brief, we propose each user to monitor the activity of her peers (on the basis of responses to questions asked by her) and observe their compliance with predefined cognitive models. These observations lead to local assessments that can be further fused to obtain a reliability and expertise consensus for every other user in the social network (SN). For the aggregation part we use subjective logic. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study of this kind in the context of Q&A SN. Our proposed approach is highly distributed; each user can individually estimate the expertise and the reliability of her peers using her direct interactions with them and our framework. The online SN (OSN), which can be considered as a distributed database, performs continuous data aggregation for users expertise and reliability assessment in order to reach a consensus. We emulate a Q&A SN to examine various performance aspects of our algorithm (e.g., convergence time, responsiveness etc.). Our evaluations indicate that it can accurately assess the reliability and the expertise of a user with a small number of samples and can successfully react to the latter's behavior change, provided that the cognitive traits hold in practice. © 2011 ICST

Analyzing and Modeling Special Offer Campaigns in Location-based Social Networks

The proliferation of mobile handheld devices in combination with the technological advancements in mobile computing has led to a number of innovative services that make use of the location information available on such devices. Traditional yellow pages websites have now moved to mobile platforms, giving the opportunity to local businesses and potential, near-by, customers to connect. These platforms can offer an affordable advertisement channel to local businesses. One of the mechanisms offered by location-based social networks (LBSNs) allows businesses to provide special offers to their customers that connect through the platform. We collect a large time-series dataset from approximately 14 million venues on Foursquare and analyze the performance of such campaigns using randomization techniques and (non-parametric) hypothesis testing with statistical bootstrapping. Our main finding indicates that this type of promotions are not as effective as anecdote success stories might suggest. Finally, we design classifiers by extracting three different types of features that are able to provide an educated decision on whether a special offer campaign for a local business will succeed or not both in short and long term.Comment: in The 9th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM 2015

When is electromagnetic spectrum fungible?

Fungibility is a common assumption for market-based spectrum management. In this paper, we explore the dimensions of practical fungibility of frequency bands from the point of view of the spectrum buyer who intends to use it. The exploration shows that fungibility is a complex, multidimensional concept that cannot casually be assumed. We develop two ideas for quantifying fungibility-(i) of a fungibility space in which the 'distance' between two slices of spectrum provides score of fungibility and (ii) a probabilistic score of fungibility. © 2012 IEEE