On the Relation between Discounting of Climate Change and Edgeworth-Pareto Substitutability

To justify substantial carbon emission reductions, recent literature on cost-benefit analysis of climate change suggests discounting environmental quality at a lower discount rate than the standard consumption discount rate. Recent literature also shows that a theoretical foundation for such a lower environmental discount rate requires rising willingness-to-pay for environmental quality (WTP). A widely believed better alternative is however to adjust instead future environmental benefits for rising WTP and to discount those benefits at the consumption discount rate. According to this latter approach, rising WTP is usually assumed not to change the consumption discount rate itself. Assuming environmental resource scarcity, the present paper shows that an unchanged consumption discount rate is however, by and large, only an appropriate assumption in the knife-edge case in which environmental quality and goods consumption are neither substitutes nor complements in the Edgeworth-Pareto sense (substitutes, respectively, complements in the Edgeworth-Pareto sense implies the marginal utility of goods consumption to be decreasing, respectively, increasing in environmental quality)

On Substituting Consumption Taxes for Unemployment Insurance Contributions to Reduce Unemployment

The German conservative party (consisting of two sister parties) planned in case of victory in the national election on 18 September 2005 to reduce the unemployment insurance contributions by 2 percent and to finance this with an increase in the consumption tax by 2 percent. The present paper shows in a Layard-Nickell-Jackman type wage bargaining model that this tax reform does not reduce unemployment; neither in the short to medium run, nor in the long run. When there is short-to-medium-run real wage resistance, then in the short to medium run unemployment depends on the overall tax burden, but not on the composition of the tax burden. In the long run the wage setting curve is vertical and hence in the long run unemployment is even invariant of the overall tax burden.Consumption taxes, unemployment insurance contributions, payroll taxes. wage bargaining, unemployment.

Youth Dependency, Institutions, and Economic Growth

The present paper shows empirically that the youth dependency ratio (the population below working age divided by the population of working age) reduces economic growth even after controlling for institutions. The institutional variable, the paper controls for, is the measure for institutions that is recently preferred in prominent work by Acemoglu and co-authors. Institutions turn out to have a significant and positive effect on economic growth. The significance of the youth dependency ratio and of institutions appears to be robust to controlling for various variables, including malaria prevalence. Hence, the paper finds evidence that demography, as well as institutions, both matter for economic growth.Economic Growth; Fertility; Age structure effects.

An explanation of the positive correlation between fertility and female employment across Western European countries

Recent literature shows the puzzling result of a positive and significant cross-country correlation between the total fertility rate and the female labour force participation rate across Western European countries. The present paper shows that this cross-country correlation becomes negative and significant, once one corrects the total fertility rate for a distortion, caused by an increasing age of childbearing, and controls in cross-country regressions for purchased child care use and female long-term unemployment. This result survives an empirical analysis in which the female labour force participation rate is treated as an endogenous variable.Total fertility rate; female labour force participation rate; purchased child care; female unemployment.

Swedish Family Policy, Fertility and Female Wages

Recent demographic literature shows in Swedish micro-level data a positive effect of female wage income or female education on fertility. The literature explains this finding with Swedish family policies of high subsidies for bought-in child care and generous parental leave benefits that are calculated on the basis of a woman's prior wage income. Both policies would cause the substitution effect from an increase in female wages on fertility to be dominated by its income effect. This paper shows within an economic model that there are offsetting effects from Swedish family policy that cause the reduction in the magnitude of the substitution effect of female wages to be most likely rather small.Fertility; family policy; gender equality.

Agricultural productivity growth and escape from the Malthusian trap

Industrialization allowed the industrialized world of today to escape from a regime characterized by low economic and population growth and to enter a regime of hihg economic and population growth. To explain this transion of regime, we construct a two-sector growth model with endogenous fertility and endogenous technological progress in the manufacturing sector. With this structure our model is able to replicate the stylized facts of the British industrial revolution. In addition, we show that industrialization requires rising growth of agricultural total factor productivity. This result is in marked contrast to previous work within a similar framework - but with a constant population - wich came to the conclusion that industrialization requires merely a rising level of agricultural total factor productivity. We conclude by illustrating that our proposed model framework can be extended to also include the demographic transition, i.e., a regime where economic growth may lead to decreasing fertility. (AUTHORS)Malthusian theory, demographic transition, economic growth, population growth

The Reification of Integration

The problem with integration is a twofold one, a socio-theoretical and a methodological one. Socio-theoretically, the concept of integration is forced upon a heterogeneous and disintegrated society. Methodologically, by deploying the concept of integration within social sciences reifying ramifications are established. This article proposes a theoretical sketch for an alternative route for researching migration and integration, which escapes both shortcomings by modifying its theoretical presumptions on the one hand and extracting its reifying connotations on the other hand. The alternative research model, the life situation model (LSM), proposes a mixed methods approach, seeking generality of application and symmetry of approach

Risk assessment for the multicolored Asian ladybird beetle Harmonia axyridis in German fruit crops and viticulture

Der Asiatische Marienkäfer Harmonia axyridis ist als invasive Art in Europa flächendeckend verbreitet. In Nordamerika, wo sich der Käfer ebenfalls etablieren konnte, kam es im Jahre 2001 durch den Käfer zu erheblichen Beeinflussungen des Weingeschmacks (Marienkäferton), nachdem diese mit ins Lesegut gelangten. Als prägende Geruchssubstanz des Marienkäfertons im Wein und in der Hämolymphe von H. axyridis konnte 2-Isopropyl-3-Methoxypyrazin (IPMP) mittels gaschromatographischen Analysen identifiziert werden. Anders als in einer früheren Publikation von Cudjoe et al. (2005) angenommen, haben H. axyridis und der 7-Punkt-Marienkäfer Coccinella septempunctata im Hinblick auf die IPMP-Gehalte in der Hämolymphe ein ähnlich hohes Risikopotential den Wein zu verunreinigen. In der vorliegenden Studie konnten sowohl in H. axyridis als auch C. septempunctata Gehalte zwischen 2-12 ng IPMP/ g Käfer gemessen werden. Dabei wurde ein Zusammenhang zwischen dem während der Larvalentwicklung aufgenommenen Futter sowie der Elytrenfarbe von H. axyridis und den IPMP-Gehalten im Käfer festgestellt. Schlecht verwertbare Blattläuse als Nahrungsquelle führten zu geringeren IPMP-Gehalten als bei einer Ernährung mit solchen, die ein optimales Futter für H. axyridis darstellen. Des Weiteren hatte der orange Morphotyp H. axyridis succinea mit deutlich erkennbaren schwarzen Punkten auf den Elytren signifikant höhere  IPMP-Gehalte als der schwarze Morphotyp H. axyridis spectabilis. In der Hämolymphe von C. septempunctata konnte zusätzlich 2-Isobutyl-3-Methoxypyrazin (IBMP) als weiteres geruchsintensives Methoxypyrazin neben IPMP gemessen werden. In H. axyridis kam IBMP in geringerer Intensität vor. Gelangt H. axyridis ins Lesegut, spielt vorwiegend das Gärverfahren bei der Ausprägung des Marienkäfertons im Wein eine bedeutende Rolle. Die sensorische Wahrnehmungsschwelle (für 50 % der Testpersonen erkennbar) bei der Traubensorte 'Riesling' ohne Maischegärung war 5 Käfer/ kg. In der roten Traubensorte 'Pinot noir' lag die sensorische Wahrnehmungsschwelle in maischeerhitzten Trauben bei 6 Käfer/ kg Trauben und in maischevergorenen Trauben bei 3 Käfer/ kg Trauben. Demzufolge kann eine Maischeerhitzung statt Maischegärung der Trauben den Fehlton im Wein verringern. Lösungsansätze zur Reduktion des Marienkäfertons sind auch in weiteren Schritten des Weinbereitungsverfahren zu sehen: Eine kurze Pressdauer (< 60 min) und ein niedriger Pressdruck (< 2 bar) konnten zu einer Verminderung des Fehltons beitragen beziehungsweise das Zerquetschen der Tiere in der Weinpresse reduzieren. Zum Monitoring des aktuellen Bestandes von H. axyridis in landwirtschaftlichen Kulturen eignete sich die Klopfprobe besser als gelbe Leimtafeln. Große Marienkäferarten, wie H. axyridis, können sich leichter vom Leim befreien als kleinere Arten und so kann es durch Leimfallen zu einer Unterschätzung der Populationsgröße von H. axyridis kommen und zu einer Überschätzung der Abundanz kleinerer Marienkäferarten wie dem 14-Punkt-Marienkäfer Propylea quatuordecimpunctata. Dennoch wurde bereits in den Jahren 2010 - 2011 H. axyridis im Vergleich zu C. septempunctata und P. quatuordecimpunctata am häufigsten mit Hilfe von Leimfallen an den Standorten Siebeldingen und Dossenheim gefangen. Einen positiven Einfluss auf mit der Blattreblaus befallene Reben hatte H. axyridis im Spätsommer. Zu dieser Zeit kann er als Antagonist der Reblaus Daktulosphaira vitifoliae dienen und damit die Populationsgröße dieses Schädlings für den europäischen Weinbau senken. Dabei stellt die Blattreblaus hinsichtlich der Entwicklungsparameter, wie Entwicklungsdauer und Adultgewicht, kein optimales Futter für die Art dar. H. axyridis spielt jedoch somit für den deutschen Weinbau eine ambivalente Rolle als Schädling und Nützling zugleich.The Multicolored Asian ladybird beetle Harmonia axyridis is an invasive species originating from East Asia. It was introduced to North America and Central Europe as a biological control agent. H. axyridis has spread all over these countries and has the capability to become an increasing problem for winegrowers. The Asian ladybird beetle feeds on damaged fruits in late summer and in autumn, especially on grapes. By being harvested and processed together with the grapes, it causes an off-flavor in the wine, the so-called ‘ladybird taint’ (LBT), due to the release of hemolymph (containing mainly methoxypyrazines) into the must. Sensory trials on wines produced in 2009 with added live beetles of H. axyridis showed that the LBT is detectable at a threshold level of 5 beetles/ kg where beetles were added to white ‘Riesling’ grapes. Modifications in wine processing conditions can reduce the LBT in wines. The sensory detection of LBT depends on the winemaking practices: the threshold level for crushed must fermented grapes was 3 beetles/ kg of ‘Pinot noir’ grapes compared to a threshold level of 6 beetles/ kg of ‘Pinot noir’ grapes that were must heat. In addition, the crushing of beetles in the wine press, and therefore the input of hemolymph into the must, can be reduced at pressures less than 2 bar and duration of pressing shorter than 60 minutes. Cudjoe et al. (2005) found that H. axyridis has a hundred-fold higher quantity of pyrazines in hemolymph than the 7-spot ladybird beetle Coccinella septempunctata. Interestingly, in our study, the wines contaminated by 7-spot ladybird beetle showed a significantly higher intensity of off-flavors then the wines contaminated by H. axyridis. Further analysis using headspace solid phase micro extraction (HS-SPME), gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS), and GC-olfactometry (GC-O) showed, that in relation to C. septempunctata, the Multicolored Asian ladybird beetle had more nitrogen containing compounds in the hemolymph, mainly IPMP and 2-sec butyl-3-methoxypyrazine (SBMP). IPMP was detected as the main odor-active compound in both ladybird beetle species. 2-isobutyl-3-methoxypyrazine (IBMP), which occurred at a much lower frequency in H. axyridis, could be identified as a second intensive odor-active compound of the 7-spot ladybird beetle. SBMP, the secondhighest measured N-compound of H. axyridis, had a lower olfactory active threshold by GC-O-test. C.  septempunctata contained less SBMP in its hemolymph than H. axyridis. Concentrations of IPMP in C. septempunctata and H. axyridis were between 2 -12 ng/ g beetle. In field-collected beetles no significant differences between the two species could be observed. Thus, concerning methoxypyrazine concentrations, H. axyridis cannot be regarded as more hazardous for viticulture than C. septempunctata. But we observed an effect of elytral pigmentation on IPMP concentrations. The succinea 2 type (orange without dots) had the lowest IPMP concentrations in two out of three feeding regimes compared to the succinea 1 (orange with dots) type. Depending on diet, IPMP contents differed in both species leading to higher concentrations in H. axyridis or C. septempunctata. Furthermore, aphid species ingested during larval development significantly affected IPMP content in adult beetles. For H. axyridis and C. septempunctata shaking proof is a significantly more efficient field monitoring method than yellow sticky traps. Due to their body size, both speciesare able to escape from yellow cards and the population size might be underrepresented in data sets –also in the presented data in this study. However, in the years 2010 - 2011 H. axyridis were caught at highest abundance in fruit and field crops compared to other ladybird species. C. septempunctata and the 14-spot ladybird beetle Propylea quatuordecimpunctata were the second most abundant species. In addition, the invasive species H. axyridis was identified as a possible predator of grape phylloxera Daktulosphaira vitifoliae, a pest species in viticulture, in the laboratory and under field conditions. Even though grape phylloxera cannot be considered the optimum food for H. axyridis, it may represent a preferable food source if other food is rare or lacking in late summer. In conclusion, with regards to viticulture, H. axyridis can therefore have an ambivalent role as beneficial and pest insect

Closed loop control in network monitoring

Closed loop control in network monitorin