Climate Change and Tourism in Tuscany, Italy. What if heat becomes unbearable?

This paper investigates the empirical magnitude of climate conditions on tourist flows in Tuscany, exploring the use of a fine spatial scale analysis. In fact, we explore the use of an 8-year panel dataset of Tuscany’s 254 municipalities, examining how tourist inflows respond to variation in local weather conditions. In particular, as the area enjoys a fairly mild Mediterranean climate, our analysis focused on temperature extremes at key times of the tourist season, i.e., on maximum summer temperature and minimum winter temperature. Separate analyses are conducted for domestic and international tourists, so as to test the differences in the preferences among these distinct groups (or types of demand). Estimation results show the impact of climate change on tourist flows appears to vary significantly among destinations depending on the kind of attractions they offer, and those areas that host the main artistic and historical sights, affecting predominantly the domestic rather than the international tourists.Domestic Tourists, International Tourists, Municipalities, Maximum And Minimum Daily Temperature, Dynamic Model, Temperature Demand Elasticity, GMM

Probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts on durum wheat in the Mediterranean region

Recently, the availability of multi-model ensemble prediction methods has permitted a shift from a scenario-based approach to a risk-based approach in assessing the effects of climate change. This provides more useful information to decision-makers who need probability estimates to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts. <br><br> In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the risk of durum wheat yield shortfall over the Mediterranean Basin has been exploited. An artificial neural network, trained to emulate the outputs of a process-based crop growth model, has been adopted to create yield response surfaces which are then overlaid with probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation changes in order to estimate probabilistic projections of future yields. The risk is calculated as the relative frequency of projected yields below a selected threshold. <br><br> In contrast to previous studies, which suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration over the next few decades would outweigh the detrimental effects of the early stages of climatic warming and drying, the results of this study are of greater concern

Progressive high-fluence epithelium-on accelerated corneal crosslinking: a novel corneal photodynamic therapy for early progressive keratoconus

Purpose: To assess the preliminary clinical results of a new, progressively higher fluence-pulsed light Epi-On accelerated crosslinking nomogram (PFPL M Epi-On ACXL) in the treatment of progressive keratoconus (KC). Setting: Siena Crosslinking Center, Siena, Italy. Methods: A prospective pilot open, non-randomized interventional study, including 32 eyes of 32 young-adult patients over 26 years old with Stages I- III progressive KC undergoing PFPL M Epi-On ACXL, was conducted. Riboflavin loading was performed by using Paracel I 0.25% for 4min and Paracel II 0.22% for 6min. The Avedro KXL System (Glaukos-Avedro, Burlington, USA) was used for pulsed-light accelerated crosslinking (ACXL) at air room 21% oxygenation and 13min of UV-A irradiation. The treatment fluence was set at 7.2 J/cm2, 8.6 J/cm2, and 10.0 J/cm2 in corneas with baseline pachymetry <420μm(group 1: 8 eyes), 420μm<460μm(group 2, 11 eyes), and 460μm(group 3, 13 eyes), respectively. Uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA), best-spectacle corrected visual acuity (BSCVA), Scheimpflug corneal tomography, and anterior segment OCT (AS-OCT) data were collected at baseline and postoperatively at 1, 3, and 6 months. Results:UDVA and BSCVA improved in all groups (P 0.05).Maximumkeratometry values (K max) showed a significant decrease in the 10.0 J/cm2 group (1 −1.68 D). The coma (HOAs) value improved significantly by the sixthmonth in all groups. OCT average demarcation lines were 211 ± 19μm in group 1, 245 ± 23μm in group 2, and 267 ± 21μm in group 3. Conclusions: The preliminary results show that pachymetry-based PFPL M Epi-On ACXL nomogram stabilizes ectasia progression. Higher fluence Epi-On ACXL increases CXL penetration, with better functional outcomes in the absence of complications

Valutazione del rischio legato ai cambiamenti climatici per il frumento duro

Recently, the availability of multi-model ensemble prediction methods has permitted to moving from the scenario-based approach to the risk-based approach in assessing the effects of climate change. This provides more useful information for decision-makers who need probability estimates to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts. In this study a probabilistic framework for evaluating the risk of durum wheat yield shortfall was exploited. An artificial neural network, trained to emulate outputs of a process-based crop growth model, was adopted to create yield response surfaces over which the probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation changes were overlaid to estimate probabilistic projections of future yields. The risk was calculated as the relative frequency of projected yield that not overcome the selected threshold. In contrast to previous studies suggesting that the beneficial effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration over the next few decades would outweigh the detrimental effects of the early stages of climatic warming and drying, the results of our study are of more concern. Early in the next decades, the risk of reductions in yield below the long term yield average is likely (>66%). As the century progresses, the risk still increases, reaching its maximum by mid century (very likely). In the last decades, the risk slightly decreases as the effect of larger uncertainty in climate projections simulated for the end of the century

Probabilistic assessment of adaptation options from an ensemble of crop models: a case study in the Mediterranean

Uncertainty about future climate change impacts increases the complexity of addressing adaptation and evaluating risks at regional level. In modelling studies, such uncertainty may arise from climate projections, field data and crop models. Approaches are required for effectively quantifying climate impacts and the effect of adaptation options, managing inherent uncertainties and communicating the results. The latter will especially benefit from adding user-friendly visualizations.In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the effect of feasible adaptation strategies for winter wheat in northern Spain was applied with an ensemble of crop models. First, adaptations response surfaces (ARSs) were created. These are bi-dimensional surfaces in which the effect of an adaptation option (e.g. changes in crop yield compared to the unadapted situation) is plotted against two explanatory variables (e.g. changes in temperature and precipitation). Based on these ARSs the most effective adaptations considered here were mainly based on wheat without vernalization requirements, current and shorter cycle duration and early sowing date. Other combinations of sowing dates and cycle duration were only promising and selected when a single supplementary irrigation was applied. Then, the likelihood of staying below a critical yield threshold with different adaptation measures was calculated using ARSs and probabilistic projections of climate change. The latter are joint probabilities of changes in the same explanatory variables used for drawing the ARSs. Therefore, for these options ARSs were constructed and probabilistic climate projections superimposed. Consequent probability of effectively adapting were discussed for several options

From Paper Manual to AR Manual: Do We Still Need Text?

Abstract In this work, we proposed a method to reduce text in technical documentation, aiming at Augmented Reality manuals, where text must be reduced as much as possible. In fact, most of technical information is conveyed through other means such as CAD models, graphic signs, images, etc.. The method classifies technical instructions into two categories: instructions that can be presented with graphic symbols and instructions that should be presented with text. It is based on the analysis of the action verbs used in the instruction, and makes use of ASD Simplified Technical English (STE) for remaining text instructions and let them easier to translate into other languages

Design of a sensor network for the quantitative analysis of sport climbing

We describe the design of a modular sensorized climbing wall for motion analysis in a naturalistic environment. The wall is equipped with force sensors to measure interaction forces between the athlete and the wall, which can be used by experienced instructors, athletes, or therapists, to gain insights into the quality of motion. A specifically designed triaxial load cell is integrated into each hold placement, invisible to the climber, and compatible with standard climbing holds. Data collected through the sensors is sent to an app running on a portable device. The wall can be adapted to different uses. To validate our design, we recorded a repeated climbing activity of eleven climbers with varying degrees of expertise. Analysis of the interaction forces during the exercise demonstrates that the sensor network design can provide valuable information to track and analyze exercise performance changes over time. Here we report the design process as well as the validation and testing of the sensorized climbing wall

Building an ecologically valid facial expression database – Behind the scenes

Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms, together with a general increased computational performance, allow nowadays exploring the use of Facial Expression Recognition (FER) as a method of recognizing human emotion through the use of neural networks. The interest in facial emotion and expression recognition in real-life situations is one of the current cutting-edge research challenges. In this context, the creation of an ecologically valid facial expression database is crucial. To this aim, a controlled experiment has been designed, in which thirty-five subjects aged 18–35 were asked to react spontaneously to a set of 48 validated images from two affective databases, IAPS and GAPED. According to the Self-Assessment Manikin, participants were asked to rate images on a 9-points visual scale on valence and arousal. Furthermore, they were asked to select one of the six Ekman’s basic emotions. During the experiment, an RGB-D camera was also used to record spontaneous facial expressions aroused in participants storing both the color and the depth frames to feed a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to perform FER. In every case, the prevalent emotion pointed out in the questionnaires matched with the expected emotion. CNN obtained a recognition rate of 75.02%, computed comparing the neural network results with the evaluations given by a human observer. These preliminary results have confirmed that this experimental setting is an effective starting point for building an ecologically valid database

Concepts and methods developed for probabilistic evaluation of a number of alternative adaptation options

The purpose of this document is to define the protocol for a second study (IRS2) based on impact response surfaces (IRSs) in the frame of CropM/WP4. General considerations of IRS construction are described in the protocol developed for Phase I of the IRS analysis (IRS1)Access to the full document is restricted to MACSUR members until 2015-11-01

Progressive high-fluence epithelium-on accelerated corneal crosslinking: a novel corneal photodynamic therapy for early progressive keratoconus

PurposeTo assess the preliminary clinical results of a new, progressively higher fluence-pulsed light Epi-On accelerated crosslinking nomogram (PFPL M Epi-On ACXL) in the treatment of progressive keratoconus (KC).SettingSiena Crosslinking Center, Siena, Italy.MethodsA prospective pilot open, non-randomized interventional study, including 32 eyes of 32 young-adult patients over 26 years old with Stages I-III progressive KC undergoing PFPL M Epi-On ACXL, was conducted. Riboflavin loading was performed by using Paracel I 0.25% for 4 min and Paracel II 0.22% for 6 min. The Avedro KXL System (Glaukos-Avedro, Burlington, USA) was used for pulsed-light accelerated crosslinking (ACXL) at air room 21% oxygenation and 13 min of UV-A irradiation. The treatment fluence was set at 7.2 J/cm2, 8.6 J/cm2, and 10.0 J/cm2 in corneas with baseline pachymetry <420 μm (group 1: 8 eyes), ≥ 420 μm <460 μm (group 2, 11 eyes), and ≥ 460 μm (group 3, 13 eyes), respectively. Uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA), best-spectacle corrected visual acuity (BSCVA), Scheimpflug corneal tomography, and anterior segment OCT (AS-OCT) data were collected at baseline and postoperatively at 1, 3, and 6 months.ResultsUDVA and BSCVA improved in all groups (P ≤ 0.05). Maximum keratometry values (K max) showed a significant decrease in the 10.0 J/cm2 group (Δ −1.68 D). The coma (HOAs) value improved significantly by the sixth month in all groups. OCT average demarcation lines were 211 ± 19 μm in group 1, 245 ± 23 μm in group 2, and 267 ± 21 μm in group 3.ConclusionsThe preliminary results show that pachymetry-based PFPL M Epi-On ACXL nomogram stabilizes ectasia progression. Higher fluence Epi-On ACXL increases CXL penetration, with better functional outcomes in the absence of complications