The Political Economy of Redistribution Under Asymmetric Information

This paper examines the political economy of redistribution when voters have asymmetric information about the redistributive preferences of politicians and the latter cannot make credible policy commitments. The candidates in each party are endogenously selected by a process of Nash Bargaining between the competing factions. In equilibrium, there is "partial convergence" of redistributive policies, support for "Director's Law", the possibility of "policy reversals" across the parties, and "inter term tax variability" (political budget cycles) during the tenure of a politician. The effect of inequality on the magnitude of the redistributive activity depends in important ways on the incentives and constraints facing politicians.Signaling, Inequality, Redistribution, Political Business Cycles

Penerapan Metode Demonstrasi Dengan Menggunakan Kartu untuk Meningkatkan Prestasi Belajar Operasi Penjumlahan Dan Pengurangan Pada Peserta Didik Kelas I di SDN 2 Sobo Kecamatan Munjungan Kabupaten Trenggalek

Siswa yang mengalami transisi dari pendidikan kanak-kanak menuju pendidikan dasar biasanya tidak selalu sudah paham atau mampu berhitung, misalnya  pada materi penjumlahan dan pengurangan. Bagi siswa yang biasa saja materi tersebut termasuk sulit dipahami karena memang mereka masihdalam tahap mengenal matematika. Meskipun sebagian siswa sudah mendapat pelajaran atau pengalaman dalam berhitung, tidak semua menguasai materi tersebut. Pemilihan metode atau cara mengajar termasuk salah satu pengaruhnya. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan hasil belajar Operasi Penjumlahan Dan Pengurangan Pada Peserta Didik Kelas I SD menggunakan metode demontrasi menggunakan kartu. Penelitian ini termasuk penelitian tindakan kelas dengan dua suklus. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa nilai tertinggi yang dicapai pada siklus I dan siklus II adalah sama yakni 100. Sedangkan nilai terendah yang dicapai oleh siswa pada siklus I adalah 50 dan pada sikl;us II adalah 60. Terdapat peningkatan nilai 10 dan nilai rata-rata pada siklusn I adalah 72 dan pada siklus II sebesar 82. Terdapat peningkatan 10. Selanjutnya ketuntasan klasikal, pada siklus I sebesar 64% dan pada siklus II mencapai 93%. Terjadi peningkatan 29%. Dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahwa penerapan metode demonstrasi menggunakan kartu efektif untuk meningkatkan prestasi siswa dalam materi operasi penjumlahan dan pengurangan

Towards an evidence-based approach to communicating uncertainty in intelligence analysis

Intelligence products have a degree of uncertainty associated with them. This is typically expressed using linguistic probabilities (e.g., ‘likely’), and some organizations have adopted standardized lexicons for communicating uncertainty. This paper empirically shows that intelligence analysts use a wide heterogeneity of language to communicate uncertainty. This does not include all of the phrases in standardized lexicons used by the intelligence community. In addition, analysts may use some phrases differently to that advocated. Miscommunication of uncertainty can have deleterious effects on decision-making, and so standardization of uncertainty communication should be evidence-based. This paper discusses ways in which such evidence can be generated

A survey of intelligence analysts’ perceptions of analytic tools

This article presents a survey of 278 intelligence analysts’ views of fully operational analytic technologies and their newly developed replacements. It was found that usability was an important concept in analysts’ reasons for and against using analytic tools. The perceived usability of a tool was not necessarily indicative of its perceived usefulness. Analysts’ decisions to recommend an analytic tool to others were best predicted by how usable analysts perceived the tool to be rather than how useful they considered the tool to be. These findings have implications for the development and implementation of new analytic technologies in the intelligence community

An empirical note on perceptions of partial apologies

This study examined perceptions of partial apologies. Eighty young people rated the extent to which five components of apology (i.e., accepting responsibility, acknowledging harm, expressing remorse, offering reparation, and promising forbearance) implied each other. Statistical analyses across different types of partial apologies showed no significant differences in the extent to which a particular uncommunicated component of apology was implied by one type of partial apology than another. Analyses within each type of partial apology revealed significant differences in the extent to a partial apology implied one type of uncommunicated component than another: Acknowledging harm or offering reparation implied promising forbearance to a lesser extent than accepting responsibility and expressing remorse. Expressing remorse or promising forbearance implied accepting responsibility to a greater extent than acknowledging harm and offering reparation. It is important to understand perceptions of partial apologies because they more prevalent than full apologies, and may be considered less effective

Charitable Giving and Optimal Public Policy in a Competitive Equilibrium with Multiple Equilibria.

In a competitive-equilibrium analysis of giving to charity, we show that strategic complementarity between individual giving and aggregate giving can lead to multiple equilibria. This provides a possible explanation for observed heterogeneity in giving. It is possible, but not necessary, that at a low equilibrium in giving (LE), an increase in subsidy reduces giving (perverse comparative statics) while at a high equilibrium (HE) the comparative statics are normal (subsidies promote giving). The perverse comparative statics at LE preclude using subsidies to move the economy to HE. We show how temporary direct government grants can engineer a permanent move from LE to HE. Once HE is established, the optimal mix of private and public giving is determined using a welfare analysis. We show that the Nash non-cooperative outcome is virtually identical to the competitive-equilibrium, even for relatively small numbers of givers. The competitive-equilibrium approach is more tractable and plausible, and more general because it does not rely on a symmetric equilibrium. We also show how our results are applicable to redistributive and public good contexts.Multiple Equilibria; Aggregate Strategic Substitutes and Complements; Competitive and Non-cooperative Equilibria; Direct Grants; Charitable Redistribution; Voluntary Contributions to Public Goods; Optimal Mix of Public and Private Giving.

Fairness and Direct Democracy

The median voter model (direct democracy) has wide applicability, but it is based on selfish voters i.e. voters who derive utility solely from 'own' payoff. The recent literature has pointed to fairness and concern for others as basic human motives that explain a range of economic phenomena. We examine the implications of introducing fair voters who have a preference for fairness as in Fehr and Schmidt (1999). Within a simple general equilibrium model, we demonstrate the existence of a Condorcet winner for fair voters using the single crossing property of voters’ preferences. In a fair voter model, unlike a selfish voter model, poverty can lead to increased redistribution. Mean preserving spreads of income increase equilibrium redistribution. Greater fairness leads to greater redistribution. The introduction of selfish voters in an economy where the median voter is fair can have a large impact on the redistributive outcome. An empirical exercise using OECD data illustrates the potential importance of fairness in explaining redistribution.Redistribution; other regarding preferences; single crossing property; income inequality; American Exceptionalism

Effects of a victim’s response to an offender’s apology: when the victim becomes the bad guy

The ‘apology-acceptance’ script that may prevail during the victim–offender mediation process suggests that victims may feel obliged or pressured to accept an offender’s offer of an apology. Violations of this expectation in terms of rejection of an apology or no recognition of it may influence the outcomes of mediation in several ways. Two experiments examined the effects of a victim’s response to an offender’s offer of a full apology on offenders’ perceptions of the victim’s response, emotional reactions, perceptions of the victim, attitudes towards the dispute and attitudes towards mediation. Experiment 1 compared the effects of a rejection, acceptance and no recognition of an apology, and Experiment 2 further investigated the effects of an acceptance versus no recognition of an apology. It was found that offenders who had their apology rejected considered the victim’s response as least appropriate and were least satisfied by it. ‘Rejected’ offenders felt more anger towards the victim and had more negative impressions of the victim. Offenders who had their apology accepted felt more guilt and shame. They were, however, also more willing to reach an agreement and were more likely to perceive the conflict as being resolved. ‘Accepted’ offenders were also more likely to participate in mediation in the future and more willing to recommend mediation to others. The present research also demonstrated that no recognition of an apology has adverse effects similar to a rejection of an apology

Sentencing multiple- versus single-offence cases: does more crime mean less punishment?

The “totality principle” in law aims to show mercy to offenders in multiple-offence cases and retain ordinal proportionality in punishing those who commit different categories of offence. The effect of this principle in practice, however, is largely unknown. The present study involved an analysis of data released by the Sentencing Council for England and Wales to estimate the prevalence of multiple-offence cases and compare the penalties they received against comparable single-offence cases. Multiple-offence cases represented approximately half of the cases in the sample which included violent, property, drugs and driving offences. Offence-specific regression analyses revealed that multiple/single-offence case status was not a significant predictor of receiving a custodial sentence or of custody length. Thus, by applying the totality principle, sentencers may be letting multiple-offence offenders ‘off lightly.’ Potential explanations for this unintentional effect on decision-making lies in how the totality principle is defined and interpreted, and recommendations are made for revising the guideline on application of the totality principle