Performance Analysis of Small Cells' Deployment under Imperfect Traffic Hotspot Localization

Heterogeneous Networks (HetNets), long been considered in operators' roadmaps for macrocells' network improvements, still continue to attract interest for 5G network deployments. Understanding the efficiency of small cell deployment in the presence of traffic hotspots can further draw operators' attention to this feature. In this context, we evaluate the impact of imperfect small cell positioning on the network performances. We show that the latter is mainly impacted by the position of the hotspot within the cell: in case the hotspot is near the macrocell, even a perfect positioning of the small cell will not yield improved performance due to the interference coming from the macrocell. In the case where the hotspot is located far enough from the macrocell, even a large error in small cell positioning would still be beneficial in offloading traffic from the congested macrocell.Comment: This article is already published in IEEE Global Communications Conference (GLOBECOM) 201

Traffic Hotspot localization in 3G and 4G wireless networks using OMC metrics

In recent years, there has been an increasing awareness to traffic localization techniques driven by the emergence of heterogeneous networks (HetNet) with small cells deployment and the green networks. The localization of hotspot data traffic with a very high accuracy is indeed of great interest to know where the small cells should be deployed and how can be managed for sleep mode concept. In this paper, we propose a new traffic localization technique based on the combination of different key performance indicators (KPI) extracted from the operation and maintenance center (OMC). The proposed localization algorithm is composed with five main steps; each one corresponds to the determination of traffic weight per area using only one KPI. These KPIs are Timing Advance (TA), Angle of Arrival (AoA), Neighbor cell level, the load of each cell and the Harmonic mean throughput (HMT) versus the Arithmetic mean throughput (AMT). The five KPIs are finally combined by a function taking as variables the values computed from the five steps. By mixing such KPIs, we show that it is possible to lessen significantly the errors of localization in a high precision attaining small cell dimensions.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures, published in Proc. IEEE International Symposium on Personal, Indoor and Mobile Radio Communications 2014 (PIMRC); IEEE International Symposium on Personal, Indoor and Mobile Radio Communications 2014 (PIMRC

Offloading traffic hotspots using moving small cells

In this paper, the concept of moving small cells in mobile networks is presented and evaluated taking into account the dynamics of the system. We consider a small cell moving according to a Manhattan mobility model which is the case when the small cell is deployed on the top of a bus following a predefined trajectory in areas which are generally crowded. Taking into account the distribution of user locations, we study the dynamic level considering a queuing model composed of multi-class Processor Sharing queues. Macro and small cells are assumed to be operating in the same bandwidth. Consequently, they are coupled due to the mutual interferences generated by each cell to the other. Our results show that deploying moving small cells could be an efficient solution to offload traffic hotspots.Comment: This article is already published in IEEE ICC conference 2016, Kuala Lumpur, Wireless networks symposiu

System level analysis of heterogeneous networks under imperfect traffic hotspot localization

We study, in this paper, the impact of imperfect small cell positioning with respect to traffic hotspots in cellular networks. In order to derive the throughput distribution in macro and small cells, we firstly perform static level analysis of the system considering a non-uniform distribution of user locations. We secondly introduce the dynamics of the system, characterized by random arrivals and departures of users after a finite service duration, with the service rates and distribution of radio conditions outfitted from the first part of the work. When dealing with the dynamics of the system, macro and small cells are modeled by multi-class processor sharing queues. Macro and small cells are assumed to be operating in the same bandwidth. Consequently, they are coupled due to the mutual interferences generated by each cell to the other. We derive several performance metrics such as the mean flow throughput and the gain, if any, generated from deploying small cells to manage traffic hotspots. Our results show that in case the hotspot is near the macro BS (Base Station), even a perfect positioning of the small cell will not yield improved performance due to the high interference experienced at macro and small cell users. However, in case the hotspot is located far enough from the macro BS, performing errors in small cell positioning is tolerated (since related results show positive gains) and it is still beneficial in offloading traffic from the congested macrocell. The best performance metrics depend also on several other important factors such as the users' arrival intensity, the capacity of the cell and the size of the traffic hotspot.Comment: This paper is already published in IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology 201

Optimal Multiphase Investment Strategies for Influencing Opinions in a Social Network

We study the problem of optimally investing in nodes of a social network in a competitive setting, where two camps aim to maximize adoption of their opinions by the population. In particular, we consider the possibility of campaigning in multiple phases, where the final opinion of a node in a phase acts as its initial biased opinion for the following phase. Using an extension of the popular DeGroot-Friedkin model, we formulate the utility functions of the camps, and show that they involve what can be interpreted as multiphase Katz centrality. Focusing on two phases, we analytically derive Nash equilibrium investment strategies, and the extent of loss that a camp would incur if it acted myopically. Our simulation study affirms that nodes attributing higher weightage to initial biases necessitate higher investment in the first phase, so as to influence these biases for the terminal phase. We then study the setting in which a camp's influence on a node depends on its initial bias. For single camp, we present a polynomial time algorithm for determining an optimal way to split the budget between the two phases. For competing camps, we show the existence of Nash equilibria under reasonable assumptions, and that they can be computed in polynomial time

A review of dynamic Bayesian network techniques with applications in healthcare risk modelling

Coping with an ageing population is a major concern for healthcare organisations around the world. The average cost of hospital care is higher than social care for older and terminally ill patients. Moreover, the average cost of social care increases with the age of the patient. Therefore, it is important to make efficient and fair capacity planning which also incorporates patient centred outcomes. Predictive models can provide predictions which their accuracy can be understood and quantified. Predictive modelling can help patients and carers to get the appropriate support services, and allow clinical decision-makers to improve care quality and reduce the cost of inappropriate hospital and Accident and Emergency admissions. The aim of this study is to provide a review of modelling techniques and frameworks for predictive risk modelling of patients in hospital, based on routinely collected data such as the Hospital Episode Statistics database. A number of sub-problems can be considered such as Length-of-Stay and End-of-Life predictive modelling. The methodologies in the literature are mainly focused on addressing the problems using regression methods and Markov models, and the majority lack generalisability. In some cases, the robustness, accuracy and re-usability of predictive risk models have been shown to be improved using Machine Learning methods. Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques can represent complex correlations models and include small probabilities into the solution. The main focus of this study is to provide a review of major time-varying Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques with applications in healthcare predictive risk modelling

Ensemble Risk Model of Emergency Admissions (ERMER)

Introduction About half of hospital readmissions can be avoided with preventive interventions. Developing decision support tools for identification of patients’ emergency readmission risk is an important area of research. Because, it remains unclear how to design features and develop predictive models that can adjust continuously to a fast-changing healthcare system and population characteristics. The objective of this study was to develop a generic ensemble Bayesian risk model of emergency readmission. Methods We produced a decision support tool that predicts risk of emergency readmission using England's Hospital Episode Statistics inpatient database. Firstly, we used a framework to develop an optimal set of features. Then, a combination of Bayes Point Machine (BPM) models for different cohorts was considered to create an optimised ensemble model, which is stronger than the individual generative and non-linear classifications. The developed Ensemble Risk Model of Emergency Admissions (ERMER) was trained and tested using three time-frames: 1999-2004, 2000-05 and 2004-09, each of which includes about 20% of patients in England during the trigger year. Results Comparisons are made for different time-frames, sub-populations, risk cut-offs, risk bands and top risk segments. The precision was 71.6% to 73.9%, the specificity was 88.3% to 91.7% and the sensitivity was 42.1% to 49.2% across different time-frames. Moreover, the Area Under the Curve was 75.9% to 77.1%. Conclusions The decision support tool performed considerably better than the previous modelling approaches, and it was robust and stable with high precision. Moreover, the framework and the Bayesian model allow the model to continuously adjust it to new significant features, different population characteristics and changes in the system

Risk Modelling Framework for Emergency Hospital Readmission, Using Hospital Episode Statistics Inpatient Data

The objective of this study was to develop, test and benchmark a framework and a predictive risk model for hospital emergency readmission within 12 months. We performed the development using routinely collected Hospital Episode Statistics data covering inpatient hospital admissions in England. Three different timeframes were used for training, testing and benchmarking: 1999 to 2004, 2000 to 2005 and 2004 to 2009 financial years. Each timeframe includes 20% of all inpatients admitted within the trigger year. The comparisons were made using positive predictive value, sensitivity and specificity for different risk cut-offs, risk bands and top risk segments, together with the receiver operating characteristic curve. The constructed Bayes Point Machine using this feature selection framework produces a risk probability for each admitted patient, and it was validated for different timeframes, sub-populations and cut-off points. At risk cut-off of 50%, the positive predictive value was 69.3% to 73.7%, the specificity was 88.0% to 88.9% and sensitivity was 44.5% to 46.3% across different timeframes. Also, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 73.0% to 74.3%. The developed framework and model performed considerably better than existing modelling approaches with high precision and moderate sensitivity