Unmasking the Theta Method.

The Theta method of forecasting performed particularly well in the M3-competition and is therefore of interest to forecast practitioners. The description of the method given by Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos (2000) involves several pages of algebraic manipulation and is difficult to comprehend. We show that the method can be expressed much more simply; furthermore we show that the forecasts obtained are equivalent to simple exponential smoothing with drift.exponential smoothing; forecasting competitions; state space models

COAL PYROLYSIS IN INERT CONDITION

Coal pyrolysis is the thermal cracking process in inert gas condition, to produced gas, liquid and solid product. Quantity and quality product will effected by condition of operation. Pyrulysis process to make use of Kalimantan (KPC) in the atmospheric reactor in inert of nitrogen gas as inert with flow rate gas is 350 ml/minute, with measurement of particle is 6/10, 4/6 and 2/4 mesh, to be done at temperature condition 400 – 700 oC and weight of feed 2 kilogram, respectively. It can be concluded that condition of nitrogen inert and fed with step by step can the probabilities limited of internal secondary reaction and effective enough to resist external secondary reaction, it is showed in the increasing of tar production and decreas of gas product, specialy of particle 4/6 and 2/4 mesh with operation temperature higher 600 oC and effectiveness to resist of thermal secondary reaction for 6/10 mesh. The effect temperature to grow into gas product in the measure of particle 6/10 mesh. The yield of char, tar and gases depends on temperature and particle size. The maximum yield tar was obtained at temperature 500o C with particle size 4/6 mesh and the maximum yield gas was obtained at temperature 700o C with particle size 6/10 mesh are 12,4 % and 20.74 % respectively. The concentartion of gases will increase with increasing temperature, but will decrease with increasing particle size. The Atmosphere of nitrogen inert of influence for the higher the particle size at temperature above 500o C, the less gas product, but more tar, were obtained

Multi-View Frame Reconstruction with Conditional GAN

Multi-view frame reconstruction is an important problem particularly when multiple frames are missing and past and future frames within the camera are far apart from the missing ones. Realistic coherent frames can still be reconstructed using corresponding frames from other overlapping cameras. We propose an adversarial approach to learn the spatio-temporal representation of the missing frame using conditional Generative Adversarial Network (cGAN). The conditional input to each cGAN is the preceding or following frames within the camera or the corresponding frames in other overlapping cameras, all of which are merged together using a weighted average. Representations learned from frames within the camera are given more weight compared to the ones learned from other cameras when they are close to the missing frames and vice versa. Experiments on two challenging datasets demonstrate that our framework produces comparable results with the state-of-the-art reconstruction method in a single camera and achieves promising performance in multi-camera scenario.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, Accepted at IEEE Global Conference on Signal and Information Processing, 201

PRODUKSI ALKOHOL FUEL GRADE DENGAN PROSES DISTILASI EKSTRAKTIF

One of the alternate fuels that can be used is fuel grade alcohol, which is anhydrous ethanol with water content of no more than 0.5%. To get ethanol > 99.6% can not be through ordinary distillation, because ethanol has a point azeotrope where the vapor composition similar to composition liquid. Though the need for anhydrous ethanol is big enough. The research aims to go beyond the point azeotrope ethanol by combining method and salt effect of extractive distillation to obtain anhydrous ethanol with high purity. In extractive distillation solvent is used ethylene glycol and potassium carbonate salts as the salt effect. Both these ingredients are mixed with a composition that has been determined and incorporated into the distillation flask as entrainer mixed with 70% ethanol. Take place within the plate distillation column with a pressure of 1 atm, time reflux for 1 hour. Distillate purity obtained is analyzed, the relative volatility and acid numbers. Meanwhile, under the product or residue can be used to recycle the next process. Of course, with further proceedings because the residue contains ethylene glycol - salt - water. The study concluded that the purity of 99.74% by weight of ethylene glycol on the addition of 300 ml and 55 g of salt. Relative volatility is 7.1518 and the largest number of smallest acid is 0.0048 obtained when the addition of 500 ml ethylene glycol and 55 grams of salt

Empirical Information Criteria for Time Series Forecasting Model Selection

In this paper, we propose a new Empirical Information Criterion (EIC) for model selection which penalizes the likelihood of the data by a function of the number of parameters in the model. It is designed to be used where there are a large number of time series to be forecast. However, a bootstrap version of the EIC can be used where there is a single time series to be forecast. The EIC provides a data-driven model selection tool that can be tuned to the particular forecasting task. We compare the EIC with other model selection criteria including Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The comparisons show that for the M3 forecasting competition data, the EIC outperforms both the AIC and BIC, particularly for longer forecast horizons. We also compare the criteria on simulated data and find that the EIC does better than existing criteria in that case also.Exponential smoothing; forecasting; information criteria; M3 competition; model selection.

PERENCANAAN BIAYA DAN WAKTU PELAKSANAAN ALAT BERAT PADA PROYEK PENINGKATAN STRUKTUR JALAN KELILING PULAU WEH (BALOHAN-SABANG)

Dalam melaksanakan proyek konstruksi jalan, salah satu hal yang harus dilakukan adalah melakukan perhitungan biaya dan waktu pelaksanaan alat berat yang mana harus sangat diperhatikan. Oleh karena itu perlu dilakukan dengan ketelitian untuk mendapatkan biaya dan waktu yang efisien. Lokasi proyek yang disajikan sebagai subjek tugas akhir ini adalah pada Proyek Peningkatan Struktur Jalan Keliling Pulau Weh (Balohan-Sabang), dengan panjang 23 km, dan nilai kontrak sebesar Rp 11.616.220.000,00. Proyek ini terdiri dari pekerjaan subbase, base, lapisan perekat dan surface. Pelaksanaan pekerjaan tersebut memerlukan alat berat seperti wheel loader, dump truck, tandem roller, motor grader, water tank, compresor, asphalt sprayer, asphalt finisher dan pneumatic tired roller. Penggunaan alat berat tersebut perlu direncanakan agar sesuai dengan biaya dan waktu yang diinginkan. Tujuan tugas akhir ini adalah merencanakan biaya dan waktu penggunaan peralatan sehingga pelaksanaan pekerjaan lebih optimal. Pada penulisan ini dilakukan penjadwalan dengan metode Linear Scheduling Method (LSM), yang ditampilkan dalam bentuk grafik dimana sumbu x mewakili waktu dan sumbu y mewakili satuan panjang (jarak). Dimana dengan metode ini diharapkan dapat dengan mudah diketahui kemajuan proyek tiap kegiatan pada setiap lokasi atau keseluruhan proyek pada waktu tertentu serta dapat memonitor kontinuitas kerja dari kelompok-kelompok kerja tiap kegiatan. Perencanaan ini dilakukan dalam beberapa tahap yaitu tahap pengumpulan data yang berupa peta, gambar teknis, volume pekerjaan, spesifikasi alat berat, dan harga satuan. Selanjutnya tahap pengolahan data untuk menghitung biaya dan waktu pelaksanaan peralatan. Dari hasil pengolahan data didapatkan total biaya keseluruhan adalah Rp 131.230.637,1 (Seratus tiga puluh satu juta dua ratus tiga puluh ribu enam ratus tiga puluh tujuh koma satu). Durasi waktu pengerjaan yang didapatkan setelah menggunakan metode LSM adalah 34 hari.Kata kunci : Alat Berat, Biaya, Waktu, Linear Scheduling Metho