BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5)

Modeling the Global Levels and Distribution of Polychlorinated Biphenyls in Air under a Climate Change Scenario

We used the multimedia chemical fate model BETR Global to evaluate changes in the global distribution of two polychlorinated biphenyls, PCB 28 and PCB 153, under the influence of climate change. This was achieved by defining two climate scenarios based on results from a general circulation model, one scenario representing the last twenty years of the 20th century (20CE scenario) and another representing the global climate under the assumption of strong future greenhouse gas emissions (A2 scenario), The two climate scenarios are defined by four groups of environmental parameters: (1) temperature in the planetary boundary layer and the free atmosphere, (2) wind speeds and directions in the atmosphere, (3) current velocities and directions in the surface mixed layer of the oceans, and (4) rate and geographical pattern of precipitation. As a fifth parameter in our scenarios, we consider the effect of temperature on primary volatilization emissions of PCBs. Comparison of dynamic model results using environmental parameters from the 20CE scenario against historical long-term monitoring data of concentrations of PCB 28 and PCB 153 in air from 16 different sites shows satisfactory agreement between modeled and measured PCBs concentrations. The 20CE scenario and A2 scenario were compared using steady-state calculations and assuming the same source characteristics of PCBs. Temperature differences between the two scenarios is the dominant factor that determines the difference in PCB concentrations in air. The higher temperatures in the A2 scenario drive increased primary and secondary volatilization emissions of PCBs, and enhance transport from temperate regions to the Arctic. The largest relative increase in concentrations of both PCB congeners in air under the A2 scenario occurs in the high Arctic and the remote Pacific Ocean. Generally, higher wind speeds under the A2 scenario result in more efficient intercontinental transport of PCB 28 and PCB 153 compared to the 20CE scenario. Our modeling indicates that in a future impacted by climate change,we can expect increased volatilization emissions and increased mobility of persistent organic pollutants with properties similar to those of PCBs

Remoteness from Emission Sources Explains the Fractionation Pattern of Polychlorinated Biphenyls in the Northern Hemisphere

The global distillation hypothesis states that fractionation patterns of persistent semivolatile chemicals in the environment are determined by the effect of spatially varying environmental temperature on the temperature-dependent phase partitioning coefficients of chemicals. Here, we use a model experiment and an analysis of monitoring data for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to explore an alternative hypothesis, the differential removal hypothesis, which proposes that fractionation results from different loss rates from the atmosphere, acting along a gradient of remoteness from emission sources Model calculations for a range of PCB congeners demonstrate that fractionation occurs with distance from sources, regardless of the temperature gradient. We have assembled two independent data sets of PCB concentrations in European air that show fractionation, and quantified the remoteness of monitoring sites from PCB sources using the remoteness index, RI Regression analysis of these empirical data against RI and temperature demonstrates that RI determines fractionation patterns Based on this result, we calculate empirical effective residence times in air for a set of PCB congeners from the relationship between measured concentrations and RI. These empirical effective residence times agree well with values calculated by a multimedia mass balance model. Our conclusion from the model experiment and analysis of monitoring data is that temperature is not a driver of the fractionation of PCBs currently observed in European air, but rather that fractionation reflects differential removal from the atmosphere