Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Water regimes in the Brazilian Cerrados are sensitive to climatological disturbances and human intervention. The risk that critical water-table levels are exceeded over long periods of time can be estimated by applying stochastic methods in modeling the dynamic relationship between water levels and driving forces such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In this study, a transfer function-noise model, the so called PIRFICT-model, is applied to estimate the dynamic relationship between water-table depth and precipitation surplus/deficit in a watershed with a groundwater monitoring scheme in the Brazilian Cerrados. Critical limits were defined for a period in the Cerrados agricultural calendar, the end of the rainy season, when extremely shallow levels

De dynamiek van vennen in schijnspiegelsystemen

Op verscheidene plaatsen in Nederland wordt getracht verdroging van vennen tegen te gaan door verwijdering van veel verdampende bomen. Het effect van deze maatregel op de levensgemeenschap in het ven is echter sterk afhankelijk van de ligging van slecht doorlatende lagen en de grootte van het schijnspiegelsysteem, die op hun beurt de reactie van het venpeil op neerslag beïnvloeden. Meer inzicht in de hydrologie van vennen is verkregen via het tijdreeksmodel PIRFICT, met als onderzoekslocatie Beegderheid

Hematopoietic cell transplantation in severe combined immunodeficiency: The SCETIDE 2006-2014 European cohort

Genetic subgroups; Immune reconstitution; Pretransplantation infectionsSubgrupos genéticos; Reconstitución inmune; Infecciones previas al trasplanteSubgrups genètics; Reconstitució immune; Infeccions prèvies al trasplantamentBackground Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) represents a curative treatment for patients with severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID), a group of monogenic immune disorders with an otherwise fatal outcome. Objective We performed a comprehensive multicenter analysis of genotype-specific HSCT outcome, including detailed analysis of immune reconstitution (IR) and the predictive value for clinical outcome. Methods HSCT outcome was studied in 338 patients with genetically confirmed SCID who underwent transplantation in 2006-2014 and who were registered in the SCETIDE registry. In a representative subgroup of 152 patients, data on IR and long-term clinical outcome were analyzed. Results Two-year OS was similar with matched family and unrelated donors and better than mismatched donor HSCT (P 0.5 × 10e3/μL at +1 year were identified as independent predictors of favorable clinical and immunologic outcome. Conclusion Recent advances in HSCT in SCID patients have resulted in improved OS and EFS in all genotypes and donor types. To achieve a favorable long-term outcome, treatment strategies should aim for optimal naive CD4 T lymphocyte regeneration

Naturally Rehearsing Passwords

We introduce quantitative usability and security models to guide the design of password management schemes --- systematic strategies to help users create and remember multiple passwords. In the same way that security proofs in cryptography are based on complexity-theoretic assumptions (e.g., hardness of factoring and discrete logarithm), we quantify usability by introducing usability assumptions. In particular, password management relies on assumptions about human memory, e.g., that a user who follows a particular rehearsal schedule will successfully maintain the corresponding memory. These assumptions are informed by research in cognitive science and validated through empirical studies. Given rehearsal requirements and a user's visitation schedule for each account, we use the total number of extra rehearsals that the user would have to do to remember all of his passwords as a measure of the usability of the password scheme. Our usability model leads us to a key observation: password reuse benefits users not only by reducing the number of passwords that the user has to memorize, but more importantly by increasing the natural rehearsal rate for each password. We also present a security model which accounts for the complexity of password management with multiple accounts and associated threats, including online, offline, and plaintext password leak attacks. Observing that current password management schemes are either insecure or unusable, we present Shared Cues--- a new scheme in which the underlying secret is strategically shared across accounts to ensure that most rehearsal requirements are satisfied naturally while simultaneously providing strong security. The construction uses the Chinese Remainder Theorem to achieve these competing goals

Automating outcome analysis after stem cell transplantation: the YORT tool

Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is a high-risk procedure. Auditing and yearly outcome reviews help keep optimal quality of care and come with increased survival, but also has significant recurring costs. When data has been entered in a standardized registry, outcome analyses can be automated, which reduces work and increases standardization of performed analyses. To achieve this, we created the Yearly Outcome Review Tool (YORT), an offline, graphical tool that gets data from a single center EBMT registry export, allows the user to define filters and groups, and performs standardized analyses for overall survival, event-free survival, engraftment, relapse rate and non-relapse mortality, complications including acute and chronic Graft vs Host Disease (GvHD), and data completeness. YORT allows users to export data as analyzed to allow you to check data and perform manual analyses. We show the use of this tool on a two-year single-center pediatric cohort, demonstrating how the results for both overall and event-free survival and engraftment can be visualized. The current work demonstrates that using registry data, standardized tools can be made to analyze this data, which allows users to perform outcome reviews for local and accreditation purposes graphically with minimal effort, and help perform detailed standardized analyses. The tool is extensible to be able to accommodate future changes in outcome review and center-specific extensions.Transplantation and immunomodulatio

Predicting patient death after allogeneic stem cell transplantation for inborn errors using machine learning (PREPAD): a European society for blood and marrow transplantation inborn errors working party study

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a curative treatment for many inborn errors of immunity, metabolism, and hematopoiesis. No predictive models are available for these disorders. We created a machine learning model using XGBoost to predict survival after HSCT using European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplant registry data of 10,888 patients who underwent HSCT for inborn errors between 2006 and 2018, and compared it to a simple linear Cox model, an elastic net Cox model, and a random forest model. The XGBoost model had a cross-validated area under the curve value of .73 at 1 year, which was significantly superior to the other models, and it accurately predicted for countries excluded while training. It predicted close to 0% and >30% mortality more often than other models at 1 year, while maintaining good calibration. The 5-year survival was 94.7% in the 25% of patients at lowest risk and 62.3% in the 25% at highest risk. Within disease and donor subgroups, XGBoost outperformed the best univariate predictor. We visualized the effect of the main predictors-diagnosis, performance score, patient age and donor type-using the SHAP ML explainer and developed a stand-alone application, which can predict using the model and visualize predictions. The risk of mortality after HSCT for inborn errors can be accurately predicted using an explainable machine learning model. This exceeds the performance of models described in the literature. Doing so can help detect deviations from expected survival and improve risk stratification in trials.(c) 2023 The American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)Transplantation and immunomodulatio

Late effects in pediatric allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for nonmalignant diseases: proxy- and patient-reported outcomes

Survival rates in pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) for nonmalignant diseases have improved due to advances in conditioning regimens, donor selection, and prophylaxis and treatment of infections and graft-versus-host disease. Insight into the long-term patient-reported outcomes (PROs) after pediatric HSCT for nonmalignant disease is lacking but essential for optimal shared decision making, counseling, and quality of care. The purpose of this research was to determine long-term patient-reported outcomes in allogeneic pediatric HSCT for nonmalignant diseases and to compare these results with Dutch reference data. This single-center cohort study evaluated PROs (PedsQL 4.0, PROMIS item banks), self- or proxy-reported, among patients at >= 2 years after pediatric allogeneic HSCT for nonmalignant disease. Mean scores were compared with those of the Dutch general population. Of 171 eligible patients, 119 participated, for a 70% response rate. The median patient age was 15.8 years (range, 2 to 49 years), and the median duration of follow-up was 8.7 years (range, 2 to 34 years). Indications for HSCT included inborn errors of immunity (n = 41), hemoglobinopathies (n = 37), and bone marrow failure (n = 41). Compared with reference data, significantly lower scores were found in adolescents (age 13 to 17 years) on the Total, Physical Health, and School Functioning PedsQL subscales. Significantly more Sleep Disturbance was reported in children (age 8 to 18 years). On the other hand, significantly better scores were seen on PROMIS Fatigue (age 5 to 7 years) and Pain Interference (age 8 to 18 years) and, in adults (age 19 to 30 years), on Depressive Symptoms and Sleep Disturbance. This study showed better or comparable very long-term PROs in patients after pediatric HSCT for nonmalignant diseases compared with the reference population. Children and adolescents seem to be the most affected, indicating the need for supportive care to prevent impaired quality of life and, more importantly, to amplify their long-term well-being. (c) 2022 The American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)Metabolic health: pathophysiological trajectories and therap

Clinical features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric steroid refractory acute graft-versus-host disease: a multicenter study

Steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease (SR-aGvHD) is a severe complication in pediatric allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). We aimed to assess clinical course and outcomes of pediatric SR-aGvHD. We performed a retrospective nationwide multicenter cohort study in the Netherlands. All patients aged 0 to 18 years who underwent transplantation between 2010 and 2020 with SR-aGvHD were included. For each patient, weeldy clinical aGvHD grade and stage, immunosuppressive treatment and clinical outcomes were collected. The primary study endpoint was the clinical course of SR-aGvHD over time. As a secondary outcome, factors influencing overall survival and SR-aGvHD remission were identified using a multistate Cox model. 20% of transplanted children developed grade II-IV aGvHD, of which 51% (n = 81) was SR-aGvHD. In these patients, second-line therapy was started at a median of 8 days after initial aGvHD-diagnosis. Forty-nine percent of SR-aGvHD patients received 3 or more lines of therapy. One year after start of second-line therapy, 34 patients (42%) were alive and in remission of aGvHD, 14 patients (17%) had persistent GvHD, and 33 patients (41%) had died. SR-aGvHD remission rate was lower in cord blood graft recipients than in bone marrow (BM) or peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) recipients (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.51, 0.27-0.94, P = .031). Older age was associated with higher mortality (HR = 2.62, 1.04-6.60, P = .04, fourth quartile [aged 13.9-17.9] versus first quartile [aged 0.175-3.01]). In BM/PBSC recipients older age was also associated with lower remission rates (HR = 0.9, 0.83-0.96, P = .004). Underlying diagnosis, donor matching or choice of second-line therapy were not associated with outcome. Respiratory insufficiency caused by pulmonary GvHD was a prominent cause of death (26% of deceased). Our study demonstrates that SR-aGvHD confers a high mortality risk in pediatric HSCT. Older age and use of CB grafts are associated with an unfavorable outcome. Multicenter studies investigating novel treatment strategies to prevent pediatric SR-aGvHD and inclusion of children in ongoing trials, together with timely initiation of second-line interventions are pivotal to further reduce GvHD-related mortality. (C) 2022 The American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy.Transplantation and immunomodulatio