2DV modelling of sediment transport processes over full-scale ripples in regular asymmetric oscillatory flow

Wave-induced, steep vortex ripples are ubiquitous features in shallow coastal seas and it is therefore important to fully understand and model the sediment transport processes that occur over them. To this end, two two-dimensional vertical (2DV) models have been critically tested against detailed velocity and sediment concentration measurements above mobile ripples in regular asymmetric oscillatory flow. The two models are a k–ω turbulence-closure model and a discrete-vortex, particle-tracking (DVPT) model, while the data are obtained in the Aberdeen oscillatory flow tunnel (AOFT). The models and the data demonstrate that the time-dependent velocity and suspended sediment concentration above the ripple are dominated by the generation of lee-side vortices and their subsequent ejection at flow reversal. The DVPT model predicts the positions and strengths of the vortices reasonably well, but tends to overpredict the velocity close to the ripple surface. The k–ω model, on the other hand, underpredicts the height to which the vortices are lifted, but is better able to predict the velocity close to the bed. In terms of the cycle- and ripple-averaged horizontal velocity, both models are able to reproduce the observed offshore flow close to and below the ripple crest and the DVPT model is able to produce the onshore flow higher up. In the vicinity of the vortices, the DVPT model better represents the concentration (because of its better prediction of vorticity). The k–ω model, on the other hand, better represents the concentration close to the ripple surface and higher up in the flow (because of the better representation of the near-bed flow and background turbulence). The measured and predicted cycle- and ripple-averaged suspended sediment concentrations are in reasonable agreement and demonstrate the expected region of exponential decay. The models are able to reproduce the observed offshore cycle- and ripple-averaged suspended sediment flux from the ripple troughs upwards, and as a result, produce net offshore suspended sediment transport rates that are in reasonable agreement. The net measured offshore suspended transport rate, based on the integration of fluxes, was found to be consistent with the total net offshore transport measured in the tunnel as a whole once the onshore transport resulting from ripple migration was taken into account, as would be expected. This demonstrates the importance of models being able to predict ripple-migration rates. However, at present neither of the models is able to do so

Use of antibiotics and asthma medication for acute lower respiratory tract infections in people with and without asthma:retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics are overused in patients with acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRTIs), but less is known about their use in patients with asthma, or the use of asthma medication for ALRTI in patients without asthma. Our aim was to describe the frequency, variation and drivers in antibiotic and asthma medication prescribing for ALRTI in adults with and without asthma in primary care. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis of patients aged ≥12 years, diagnosed with an ALRTI in primary care in 2014–15 was conducted using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Current asthma status, asthma medication and oral antibiotic use within 3 days of ALRTI infection was determined. Treatment frequency was calculated by asthma status. Mixed-effect regression models were used to explore between-practice variation and treatment determinants. RESULTS: There were 127,976 ALRTIs reported among 110,418 patients during the study period, of whom 17,952 (16%) had asthma. Respectively, 81 and 79% of patients with and without asthma received antibiotics, and 41 and 15% asthma medication. There were significant differences in between-practice prescribing for all treatments, with greatest differences seen for oral steroids (odds ratio (OR) 18; 95% CI 7–82 and OR = 94; 33–363, with and without asthma) and asthma medication only (OR 7; 4–18 and OR = 17; 10–33, with and without asthma). Independent predictors of antibiotic prescribing among patients with asthma included fewer previous ALRTI presentations (≥2 vs. 0 previous ALRTI: OR = 0.25; 0.16–0.39), higher practice (OR = 1.47; 1.35–1.60 per SD) and prior antibiotic prescribing (3+ vs. 1 prescriptions OR = 1.28; 1.04–1.57) and concurrent asthma medication (OR = 1.44; 1.32–1.57). Independent predictors of asthma medication in patients without asthma included higher prior asthma medication prescribing (≥7 vs. 0 prescriptions OR = 2.31; 1.83–2.91) and concurrent antibiotic prescribing (OR = 3.59; 3.22–4.01). CONCLUSION: Findings from the study indicate that antibiotics are over-used for ALRTI, irrespective of asthma status, and asthma medication is over-used in patients without asthma, with between-practice variation suggesting considerable clinical uncertainty. Further research is urgently needed to clarify the role of these medications for ALRTI

Relationship between guideline treatment and health-related quality of life in asthma

The aim of this study was to compare the health-related quality of life (HRQL) of asthma patients treated according to the 1997 National Institute of Health (NIH) international asthma guideline and that of asthmatics receiving non-guideline treatment. The suitability of 146 asthmatics' medication regimes was determined according to the 1997 NIH asthma guideline. Quality of life was assessed on a seven-point scale using the Asthma Quality of Life questionnaire. Just over half of the patients were not currently using the treatment considered necessary for controlling their asthma. Patients treated according to the guideline (n=72) had a significantly higher overall HRQL than patients with non-guideline treatment (5.7 versus 5.3). The differences were also significant for the subscales measuring symptoms and environmental exposure, but not for activities or emotional function. An association between non-guideline treatment and a poorer health-related quality of life in asthma patients treated in general practice was observed. This study supports the role of evidence-based guidelines in daily practice. Further studies are needed to determine if guideline treatment is responsible for the increase in health-related quality of life observed in this work

Probing the Interstellar Medium using HI absorption and emission towards the W3 HII region

HI spectra towards the W3 HII complex are presented and used to probe the Galactic structure and interstellar medium conditions between us and this region. The overall shape of the spectra is consistent with the predictions of the Two-Arm Spiral Shock model wherein the gas found in the -40 km/s to -50 km/s range has been accelerated by some 20 km/s from its rotation curve velocity. Spin temperatures of ~100 K are derived for the Local Arm gas, lower than found in a previous, similar study towards DR 7. For the interarm region, values on the order of 300 K are found, implying a negligible filling factor for the Cold Neutral Medium (<< 1%). Some of the absorbing gas at velocities near -40 km/s is confirmed to be associated with the HII regions.Comment: 23 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journa

Learning Hybrid Process Models From Events: Process Discovery Without Faking Confidence

Process discovery techniques return process models that are either formal (precisely describing the possible behaviors) or informal (merely a "picture" not allowing for any form of formal reasoning). Formal models are able to classify traces (i.e., sequences of events) as fitting or non-fitting. Most process mining approaches described in the literature produce such models. This is in stark contrast with the over 25 available commercial process mining tools that only discover informal process models that remain deliberately vague on the precise set of possible traces. There are two main reasons why vendors resort to such models: scalability and simplicity. In this paper, we propose to combine the best of both worlds: discovering hybrid process models that have formal and informal elements. As a proof of concept we present a discovery technique based on hybrid Petri nets. These models allow for formal reasoning, but also reveal information that cannot be captured in mainstream formal models. A novel discovery algorithm returning hybrid Petri nets has been implemented in ProM and has been applied to several real-life event logs. The results clearly demonstrate the advantages of remaining "vague" when there is not enough "evidence" in the data or standard modeling constructs do not "fit". Moreover, the approach is scalable enough to be incorporated in industrial-strength process mining tools.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figure

A Risk Assessment Model on Pine Wood Nematode in the EU

Pine wood nematode, B. xylophilus poses a serious threat for the European forest industry. This study applies a quantitative risk assessment to analyze the risk of pine wood nematode in the EU, by estimating the reduction expected within forestry stock available for wood supply and its downstream roundwood market. Spatial analysis is used to join information on climate suitability, host distribution, pest spread and value of assets. Economic impacts are presented spatially on a NUTS-2 scale based on partial budgeting technique and for the EU as a whole based on partial equilibrium modeling. Results highlight the Southern regions of Europe as high risk areas with a total impact on available forestry stock of 19,000 M € after 20 years of an outbreak and no regulatory control measures. Welfare analysis of the roundwood market, in which its production represents 2,5% of forestry stock, demonstrates the ability of the producers to pass most of the negative impact to the consumers by charging higher prices. Reduction in social welfare estimated at 2,043 M €, where consumer surplus decreased by 2,622 M € and net producer surplus, affected and non-affected producers, increased by 579 M €.Risk assessment, pine wood nematode, economic analysis, EU, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Detection of CO from SMM J16359+6612, The Multiply Imaged Submillimeter Galaxy Behind A2218

We report the detection of CO ($J$=3$\to$2) line emission from all three multiple images (A,B and C) of the intrinsically faint ($\simeq$ 0.8 mJy) submillimeter-selected galaxy SMM J16359+6612. The brightest source of the submm continuum emission (B) also corresponds to the brightest CO emission, which is centered at $z$=2.5168, consistent with the pre-existing redshift derived from \Ha. The observed CO flux in the A, B and C images is 1.2, 3.5 and 1.6 Jy \kms respectively, with a linewidth of $500\pm 100$ \kms. After correcting for the lensing amplification, the CO flux corresponds to a molecular gas mass of $\sim 2\times 10 ^{10} h_{71}^{-2}$ \Msun, while the extent of the CO emission indicates that the dynamical mass of the system $\sim9\times10^{10}$ \Msun. Two velocity components are seen in the CO spectra; these could arise from either a rotating compact ring or disk of gas, or merging substructure. The star formation rate in this galaxy was previously derived to be $\sim$100--500 \Msun \yr. If all the CO emission arises from the inner few kpc of the galaxy and the galactic CO-to-H$_2$ conversion factor holds, then the gas consumption timescale is a relatively short 40 Myr, and so the submm emission from SMM J16359+6612 may be produced by a powerful, but short-lived circumnuclear starburst event in an otherwise normal and representative high-redshift galaxy.Comment: Appearing in the 2004 October 10 issue of the Astrophysical Journal Letters, Volume 614, L5-L

Precipitation–fire linkages in Indonesia (1997–2015)

Over the past decades, fires have burned annually in Indonesia, yet the strength of the fire season is for a large part modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The two most recent very strong El Niño years were 2015 and 1997. Both years involved high incidences of fire in Indonesia. At present, there is no consistent satellite data stream spanning the full 19-year record, thereby complicating a comparison between these two fire seasons. We have investigated how various fire and precipitation datasets can be merged to better compare the fire dynamics in 1997 and 2015 as well as in intermediary years. We combined nighttime active fire detections from the Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) World Fire Atlas (WFA) available from 1997 until 2012 and the nighttime subset of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor from 2001 until now. For the overlapping period, MODIS detected about 4 times more fires than ATSR, but this ratio varied spatially. Although the reasons behind this spatial variability remain unclear, the coefficient of determination for the overlapping period was high (R2 = 0. 97, based on monthly data) and allowed for a consistent time series. We then constructed a rainfall time series based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, 1997–2015) and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Project (TRMM, 1998–2015). Relations between antecedent rainfall and fire activity were not uniform in Indonesia. In southern Sumatra and Kalimantan, we found that 120 days of rainfall accumulation had the highest coefficient of determination with annual fire intensity. In northern Sumatra, this period was only 30 days. Thresholds of 200 and 305 mm average rainfall accumulation before each active fire were identified to generate a high-incidence fire year in southern Sumatra and southern Kalimantan, respectively. The number of active fires detected in 1997 was 2.2 times higher than in 2015. Assuming the ratio between nighttime and total active fires did not change, the 1997 season was thus about twice as severe as the one in 2015. Although large, the difference is smaller than found in fire emission estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). Besides different rainfall amounts and patterns, the two-fold difference between 1997 and 2015 may be attributed to a weaker El Niño and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the later year. The fraction of fires burning in peatlands was higher in 2015 compared to 1997 (61 and 45 %, respectively). Finally, we found that the non-linearity between rainfall and fire in Indonesia stems from longer periods without rain in extremely dry years