Social experiments and intrumental variables with duration outcomes

This paper examines the empirical analysis of treatment effects on duration outcomes from data that contain instrumental variation. We focus on social experiments in which an intention to treat is randomized and compliance may be imperfect. We distinguish between cases where the treatment starts at the moment of randomization and cases where it starts at a later point in time. We derive exclusion restrictions under various informational and behavioral assumptions and we analyze identifiability under these restrictions. It turns out that randomization (and by implication, instrumental variation) by itself is often insufficient for inference on interesting effects, and needs to be augmented by a semi-parametric structure. We develop corresponding non- and semi-parametric tests and estimation methods.Event-history analysis; intention to treat; non-compliance; policy evaluation; selection

Dynamically assigned treatments: duration models, binary treatment models, and panel data models

Often, the moment of a treatment and the moment at which the outcome of interest occurs are realizations of stochastic processes with dependent unobserved determinants. Notably, both treatment and outcome are characterized by the moment they occur. We compare different methods of inference of the treatment effect, and we argue that the timing of the treatment relative to the outcome conveys useful information on the treatment effect, which is discarded in binary treatment frameworksProgram evaluation; treatment effects; bivariate duration analysis; selection bias; hazard rate; unobserved heterogeneity; fixed effects; random effects

Aspekte van die simboliese interaksionisme as metodologiese benadering in die siosiologie

The author justifies his concern with the subject on the basis of the great confusion that reigned prior to the emergence of Positivism in Sociology. Following the statement that Positivism also proved in adequate, different research principles are discussed. This is followed by an evaluation of two methodological perspectives, viz. Symbolic Interactionism and Ethnomethodology

Probation: its application in the Republic of South Africa under the Children's Act of 1960

The present research study was in the first place undertaken to ascertain to what extent the probationers and their parents have complied with the requirements laid down by the Children's Court. A secondary objective was to obtain the views of probationers, their parents, and the supervising probation officers on this particular method of treatment. A questionnaire comprising 43 questions was drawn up. In order to complete the questionnaires in detail, it was necessary to study the case files of 110 probationers and to visit them, their parents, and their supervising probation officers. Several towns and cities of the Republic were included in the survey. It is hoped that the findings of this research will present a clear and informative picture of the results of probationary treatment as applied in South Africa since the passage of the 1960 Children's Act. Furthermore, the views of those directly concerned in the application of the probationary system may have much to contribute to the improvement of the system in order to achieve more lasting results. The opinions solicited from parents, probationers, and probation officers, will be discussed in the ensuing chapters

Long-term Effects of Famine on Life Expectancy: A Re-analysis of the Great Finnish Famine of 1866-1868

Famines are extreme cases of environmental stress, and have been used by a series of studies to explore the long-term consequences of the fetal or childhood environment. Results are inconsistent and do not support negative long-term effects on mortality. The authors test the hypothesis that selection during famine changes the frailty distributions of cohorts and may hide negative long-term effects. They use death counts from age 60+ from the Human Mortality Data Base for the birth cohorts 1850-1854, 1855-1859, 1860-1865, 1866-1868, 1869-1874, 1875-1879, 1880-1884 and 1885-1889 to explore the effect of being born during the Great Finnish Famine 1866-1868. Swedish cohorts without famine exposure are analysed as a control group. Cohorts born in Finland during the Great Finnish Famine are highly heterogeneous in their distribution of deaths after age 60. By contrast, cohorts born in the years immediately after the famine are particularly homogeneous. Accounting for these differences results into a lower remaining life expectancy at age 60 for cohorts born during the famine. Statistically, long-term effects of famine on mortality become only visible when changes in the frailty distribution of cohorts are explicitly considered.old-age mortality, selection, debilitation, early life circumstances

A morphological study of membranes obtained from the systems polylactide-dioxane-methanol, polylactide-dioxane-water and polylactide-N-methyl pyrrolidone-water

The influence of liquid-liquid demixing, solid-liquid demixing, and vitrification on the membrane morphologies obtained from several polylactide-solvent-nonsolvent systems has been investigated. The polymers investigated were the semicrystalline poly-L-lactide (PLLA) and the amorphous poly-DL-lactide (PDLLA). The solvent-nonsolvent systems used were dioxane-water, N-methyl pyrrolidone-water and dioxane-methanol. For each of these systems it was attempted to relate the membrane morphology to the ternary phase diagram at 25°C. It was demonstrated that for the amorphous poly-DL-lactide the intersection of a glass transition and a liquid-liquid miscibility gap in the phase diagram was a prerequisite for the formation of stable membrane structures. For the semicrystalline PLLA a wide variety of morphologies could be obtained ranging from cellular to spherulitical structures. For membrane-forming combinations that show delayed demixing, trends expected on the basis of phase diagrams were in reasonable agreement with the observed membrane morphologies. Only for the rapidly precipitating system PLLA-N-methyl pyrrolidone-water were structures due to liquid-liquid demixing obtained when structures due to solid-liquid demixing were expected. Probably, rapid precipitation conditions promote solid-liquid demixing over liquid-liquid demixing, because the activation energy necessary for liquid-liquid demixing is lower than that for crystallization

Phase transitions during membrane formation of polylactides. I. A morphological study of membranes obtained from the system polylactide-chloroform-methanol

The influence of solid-liquid demixing, liquid-liquid demixing and vitrification on the morphology of polylactide membranes has been investigated. To study the effects of crystallization of polylactides on the membrane and morphology, polylactides of varying stereoregularity were used. The polymers applied were poly--lactide (PLLA) and copolymers with different molar ratios of -lactide and -lactide [poly-L95/D5-lactide (PLA95), poly-L80/D20-lactide (PLA80) and poly-L50/D50-lactide (PDLLA)]. Solutions of polylactides in chloroform cast on a glass plate were immersed in methanol. From solutions containing the slowly crystallizing PLA80 or uncrystallizable PDLLA porous membranes were obtained if the phase separated system was removed from the nonsolvent bath within a few hours after immersion. After longer equilibration times in methanol the structure collapsed. The swelling in the nonsolvent methanol was too high to allow stabilization of the liquid-liquid demixed structure by vitrification. Stable membranes were easily obtained with more rapidly crystallizing polymers like PLLA. Casting solutions with low PLLA concentrations gave membranes with a cellular morphology due to liquid-liquid demixing by nucleation and growth of a polymer poor phase. Crystallization only played a role in the fixation of the liquid-liquid demixed structure. At increasing PLLA concentrations the demixing sequence gradually reversed to crystallization followed by liquid-liquid demixing. In these cases membranes with porous spherulites or spherulites surrounded with a cellular layer were obtained

Asymptotic density in a coalescing random walk model

We consider a system of particles, each of which performs a continuous time random walk on {bf Z^d. The particles interact only at times when a particle jumps to a site at which there are a number of other particles present. If there are $j$ particles present, then the particle which just jumped is removed from the system with probability $p_j$. We show that if $p_j$ is increasing in $j$ and if the dimension $d$ is at least 6 and if we start with one particle at each site of {bf Z^d, then p(t) := P{there is at least one particle at the origin at time $t sim C(d)/t$. The constant $C(d)$ is explicitly identified. We think the result holds for every dimension $d ge 3$ and we briefly discuss which steps in our proof need to be sharpened to weaken our assumption $d ge 6$. The proof is based on a justification of a certain mean field approximation for $dp(t)/dt$. The method seems applicable to many more models of coalescing and annihilating particles