Monte Carlo Simulation and First Order Error Analysis: Two Possible Methods to Cope with Uncertainties in Water Quality Modeling, Applied on a Specific Model

Two methodologies to cope with uncertainties in water quality data and models are considered, namely Monte Carlo simulation and first order error analysis. To illustrate the methods, results of applications on a water quality model, which in fact is an 8 state variable, 14 parameter submodel of a comprehensive model for lake Neusiedl, are presented. Monte Carlo simulation based methods are shown to be useful for calculating valuable model predictions based on an adequate calibration

Independent position correction on tumor and lymph nodes; consequences for bladder cancer irradiation with two combined IMRT plans

Abstract Background The application of lipiodol injections as markers around bladder tumors combined with the use of CBCT for image guidance enables daily on-line position correction based on the position of the bladder tumor. However, this might introduce the risk of underdosing the pelvic lymph nodes. In this study several correction strategies were compared. Methods For this study set-up errors and tumor displacements for ten complete treatments were generated; both were based on the data of 10 bladder cancer patients. Besides, two IMRT plans were made for 20 patients, one for the elective field and a boost plan for the tumor. For each patient 10 complete treatments were simulated. For each treatment the dose was calculated without position correction (option 1), correction on bony anatomy (option 2), on tumor only (option 3) and separately on bone for the elective field (option 4). For each method we analyzed the D99% for the tumor, bladder and lymph nodes and the V95% for the small intestines, rectum, healthy part of the bladder and femoral heads. Results CTV coverage was significantly lower with options 1 and 2. With option 3 the tumor coverage was not significantly different from the treatment plan. The ΔD99% (D99%, option n - D99%, treatment plan) for option 4 was small, but significant. For the lymph nodes the results from option 1 differed not significantly from the treatment plan. The median ΔD99% of the other options were small, but significant. ΔD99% for PTVbladder was small for options 1, 2 and 4, but decreased up to -8.5 Gy when option 3 was applied. Option 4 is the only method where the difference with the treatment plan never exceeds 2 Gy. The V95% for the rectum, femoral heads and small intestines was small in the treatment plan and this remained so after applying the correction options, indicating that no additional hot spots occurred. Conclusions Applying independent position correction on bone for the elective field and on tumor for the boost separately gives on average the best target coverage, without introducing additional hot spots in the healthy tissue.</p

Revision of Oxandra (Annonaceae)

A taxonomic revision is given of the Neotropical genus Oxandra (Annonaceae). Within the genus 27 species are recognized, 4 of which are new to science. Most of the species are occurring in tropical South America, whereas a few (6) are found in Mexico and Central America and two in the West Indies (Greater and Lesser Antilles). A key to all species is provided. The treatment includes chapters about the history of the genus and morphology. All species are fully described, including full synonymy, notes on distribution and ecology, field observations (when available), vernacular names (when given), and mostly short notes about relationships of the species concerned. For each species a distribution map is made. At the end of the revision a complete list of vernacular names is included.Peer reviewe