The History and Future of the “Neglected Tropical Diseases” – Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Research to Improve Public Health Outcomes

"We propose a new, multidisciplinary research team to explore historical and ongoing dynamics that have influenced the scientific priorities, funding resources, and research capacities focused on the “neglected tropical diseases” (NTDs). The NTDs are a suite of high-morbidity, low-mortality illnesses, generally affecting impoverished populations, that have animated significant financial, human, and technical resources toward their elimination or eradication in the past several decades. Little is known about the historical evolution of this fundamental category in global health research, or of how the designation of an illness as an NTD has impacted the development of new knowledge, diagnostic tools, vaccines, treatments, or laws and policies. A successful Dietrich School Social Science Research Initiative (SSRI)-funded project (2018-19) began to explore the evolution and impact of NTD strategies on global health. Awarded to Professors Dietrich, Sirleaf, and Webel, that SSRI grant funded the development of a comprehensive new database of NTD publications and research trends from 1945 to the present, from which we have identified several crucial inflection points for further research. We have started to analyze preliminary data on a single NTD test case (onchocerciasis), for which we will incorporate additional geographical data on researchers, institutional affiliations, and origins of research samples, as well as funding sources and country-level data on disease prevalence, in order to map and visualize how research and research capacity of this NTD changed over time.   We now seek to expand and formalize collaboration with colleagues in Public Health and Medicine. This new collaboration will allow us to marry quantitative and qualitative analysis of NTD publications data and real-world observational data to explore how comprehensive knowledge of the origins, development, and trajectory of the NTD category can shape future policy and research. Understanding historical inflection points in NTD research, as well as their long-term outcomes in new policies, drugs, or interventions, will clarify how different funding strategies, new and changing collaborative networks, and complementarities and tensions in research have impacted NTD research since the 1970s. This new understanding of the NTDs will allow our research team to connect global political agendas to research funding and public health outcomes in unprecedented ways.  The team’s goal is the development of a major grant application suitable for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and/or a proposal for co-application with the WHO’s Programme in Tropical Diseases Research to private funders.

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research : the EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines

Funding: MIDAS Coordination Center and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS 1U24GM132013) for supporting travel to the face-to-face consensus meeting by members of the Working Group. NGR was supported by the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). Travel for SV was supported by the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (1U24GM132013-01). BMA was supported by Bill & Melinda Gates through the Global Good Fund. RL was funded by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship.Background  The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. Methods and findings  We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies. Conclusions  These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.Publisher PDFNon peer reviewe

The Andaman Nicobar earthquake and tsunami 2004: Impact on diseases in Indonesia

The human impact of the tsunami on December 26 2004 was enormous: more than 175.000 people killed, almost 2 million affected and many people lost their homes. Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand were worst hit with Indonesia bearing the greatest burden with nearly three-quarters of all dead and over half the homeless. Communicable disease outbreaks were foreseen in the aftermath of the disaster and the large number of dead bodies gave rise to widespread fear of epidemics. Evidence from previous natural disasters however, has shown that disease outbreaks are a very rare occurrence and it is well established that dead bodies do not pose a health threat. The objectives were 1) to describe the patterns and relative importance of major diseases as a consequence of the tsunami, 2) to compare these to the pre-existing disease profiles in Aceh before the disaster, 3) to identify key recommendations for improvement of disease control and surveillance after disasters. A team from CRED visited Jakarta and Banda Aceh from April 11-23. Data were collected from the Central and Provincial Ministries of Health, WHO and health NGOs. In addition, the team interviewed key health officers from UN, NGO and Ministry of Health, as well as academics. A collaboration was established with the ICRC field hospital in Banda Aceh, the first operational hospital in the province after the disaster and a dataset was constructed including all consultations from January 11-31. Disease profiles are presented for cholera, tetanus, wounds and wound infections, acute respiratory infections, malaria and dengue. Experience has shown that certain diseases (cholera, malaria, dengue), however commonly believed, are not always a priority immediately after a disaster. The number of disaster related health conditions needing emergency response, decreased by two and became negligible four weeks after the disaster. International humanitarian agencies in the health sector should start working with the MOH well within this time period. Surveillance systems in emergencies urgently need further research and development. The WHO system set up immediately after the tsunami was a major step forward and lessons should be learnt from this experience and used to develop a prototype for future emergencies. Guidelines for tetanus and aspiration pneumonia should be included in disaster medicine handbooks and although we have not presented findings on maternal and child health services, deliveries occurred with undiminished regularity and in worsened conditions. Humanitarian aid groups should be prepared to provide emergency obstetrics and post-natal services. Funding for relief after natural disasters should be mindful of its sustainability. This approach is not contradictory to providing immediate relief, but requires pre-planning and technical skills. Donors should know when to stop providing emergency relief funds and transit to development strategies

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

BackgroundThe importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research.Methods and findingsWe developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies.ConclusionsThese guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement