Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector

We investigate interlinkages and contagion risks in the Dutch interbank market. Based on several data sources, including the answers of banks to a questionnaire, we estimate the exposures in the interbank market at bank level. Next, we perform a scenario analysis to measure contagion risks. We find that the bankruptcy of one of the large banks will put a considerable burden on the other banks, but will not lead to a complete collapse of the interbank market. The contagion effects of the failure of a smaller bank are limited. The exposures to foreign counterparties are large and warrant further research. An important contribution of this paper is that we show, using survey data, that the entropy estimation using large exposures data as applied in many previous papers gives an adequate approximation of the actual linkages between banks. Hence, this methodology does not seem to introduce a bias.interbank market; contagion; simulation

Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis

We investigate interlinkages and contagion risks in the Dutch interbank market. Based on several data sources, including survey data, we estimate the exposures in the interbank market at bank level. Next, we perform a scenario analysis to measure contagion risks. We find that the bankruptcy of one of the large banks will put a considerable burden on the other banks but will not lead to a complete collapse of the interbank market. The exposures to foreign counterparties are large and warrant further research. An important contribution of this paper is that we show, using survey data, that the entropy estimation using large exposures data as applied in many previous papers gives an adequate approximation of the actual linkages between banks. Hence, this methodology does not seem to introduce a bias.

Risk in Financial Conglomerates: Management and Supervision

Financial conglomerates, combining banking, securities trading, and insurance, have become an important part of the financial landscape in many countries. Cross-sector consolidation has been fostered by trends such as disintermediation, globalization, and deregulation creating new challenges for both the group’s management as well as for regulators. We discuss the theoretical reasons why supervisors are interested in the riskiness of a financial firm and why – for firms – a similar concern emerges from the theory on risk management, both from a market and a firm perspective. After describing the Dutch institutional set-up, we turn to the discussion of the following question: How can a supervisor devise a framework of supervision that does justice to a financial conglomerate’s own responsibility and, at the same time, safeguards the general public’s interest? The framework, we feel, should be similar in flavor to the Supervisory Review, as proposed in the new Basel accord.supervision, financial conglomerates, banks, insurers, diversification

Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks

The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of 'systemic' risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly interbank exposures among Dutch banks over the period 1998-2008, ending with the crisis. After controlling for the link density, many topological properties display an abrupt change in 2008, providing a clear - but unpredictable - signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the heterogeneity of banks' connectivity is controlled for, the same properties show a gradual transition to the crisis, starting in 2005 and preceded by an even earlier period during which anomalous debt loops could have led to the underestimation of counter-party risk. These early-warning signals are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific data, as routinely done. We discuss important implications for bank regulatory policies.Comment: 28 pages, 23 figures, 1 tabl

Foreign Bank Penetration and Private Sector Credit in Central and Eastern Europe

We analyse foreign bank penetration in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)and its influence on private sector credit,taking into account both cross-border credit and credit by foreign bank subsidiaries. By combining BIS and BankScope data into a unique database we make a clear distinction between these credit categories.We show that the relative importance of foreign bank subsidiaries has increased considerably during recent years.However,in Hungary and Poland foreign banks were also important during the first transition years,as they provided substantial amounts of cross-border credit.We do not find evidence of foreign banks deserting CEE during financial crises or economic downturns.Although cross-border credit did decrease during some periods,foreign banks expanded the credit supply of their subsidiaries simultaneously.This may be an important consideration for (transition)countries that still have to decide whether to open up their markets to foreign bank subsidiaries.foreign banks,cross-border credit,transition economies

Stress Testing Linkages between Banks in the Netherlands

Assessing the stability of the financial sector is becoming more common in many countries. This paper presents two useful approaches, applied to the Netherlands. First we discuss the results of a contagion analysis of the Dutch interbank market. We use various ways to measure linkages between banks and find that the interbank market is fairly robust. We then turn to a network analysis of payment flows between Dutch banks. This analysis provides us with a better understanding of the network structure in this type of market. We specifically look at the effect of the recent turmoil on the payment network and find no significant changes.interbank, payment, systemic risk, financial stability, network, topology