Avaliação de modelos probabilísticos para chuvas intensas nas mesorregiões do estado de Pernambuco

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar como as distribuições de variáveis aleatórias de Gumbel, Log-Normal de dois parâmetros, Generalizada de Valores Extremos, Fréchet máximos, Weibull com dois e três parâmetros, Gama, Pearson tipo III e Log-Pearson tipo III se ajustam aos eventos de precipitação máxima diária anual (PMDA), em cada mesorregião do estado de Pernambuco. Foi utilizada uma série de PMDA para cada mesorregião pernambucana, a partir de dados obtidos na APAC e na ANA. Para avaliar a qualidade de aderência das distribuições, foram utilizados os testes de aderência de Anderson Darling (AD), Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS), o teste Qui-Quadrado de Pearson (?2) e o coeficiente de determinação (R2). O Método da Verossimilhança apresentou uma melhor qualidade de ajuste que o Método dos Momentos. A distribuição de Log-Pearson tipo III obteve o melhor ajuste para as mesorregiões da Zona da Mata e do Agreste, enquanto que a distribuição de Pearson tipo III obteve melhor aderência ao Sertão e ao São Francisco, e a Região Metropolitana do Recife a distribuição Generalizada de Valores Extremos foi a que obteve a melhor aderência. Dentre os testes de aderência utilizados o teste do Qui-Quadrado de Pearson foi considerado o mais restritivo

PLUVIOMETRIA ESPAÇO-TEMPORAL DA BACIA HIDROGRÁFICA DO UNA: Spatial-temporal pluviometry of the Una Basin

The Una River Basin holds a diversified rainfall regime. Due to the extension of this Basin, it is inserted in two mesoregions of the Pernambuco state (Zona da Mata and Agreste), which present different climatic patterns. In this context, this research aims to analyze the space-time rainfall behavior in the Una River Basin. This evaluation was carried out through the analysis of homogeneity by the K-Mean algorithm, filling of lacks with the regional vector and spatialization of the average monthly and annual data with the IDW algorithm. According to the monthly rainfall regimen the Cluster K-Mean algorithm coherently determined four clusters in the Una River basin. Regarding the pluviometric lacks, the regional vector method showed good results in the filling of monthly lacks. The double mass curve allowed the perception of consistency of the annual rainfall data. A great variability was observed in the spatialization of the annual total precipitations and of the months considered humid, from which the rainfall decreases in the East-West direction (inversely to the altitude).A Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Una detém de um regime pluviométrico diversificado. Graças a sua extensão ela está inserida em duas mesorregiões Pernambucanas (Zona da Mata e Agreste) que apresentam padrões climáticos distintos. Nesse contexto, essa pesquisa visa analisar o comportamento pluviométrico espaço-temporal na Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Una, por meio de uma análise de homogeneidade pelo algoritmo K-Mean, preenchimento de falhas com o vetor regional e espacialização dos dados médios mensais e anuais com o algoritmo do IDW. De acordo com o regime pluviométrico mensal o algoritmo Cluster K-Mean determinou coerentemente quatro clusters na Bacia hidrográfica do Rio Una. Quanto ao preenchimento de falhas pluviométricas, o método do vetor regional demonstrou bons resultados no preenchimento de falhas mensais. Com a curva de dupla massa, foi possível perceber consistência dos dados pluviométricos anuais. Na espacialização foi constatada uma grande variabilidade nas precipitações totais anuais e nos meses considerados úmidos, dos quais detêm a magnitude pluviométrica decrescente na direção Leste-Oeste (inversamente a altitude)

High anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroconversion rates before the second wave in Manaus, Brazil, and the protective effect of social behaviour measures: results from the prospective DETECTCoV-19 cohort

Background: The city of Manaus, Brazil, has seen two collapses of the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We report anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibody seroconversion rates and associated risk factors in Manaus residents before the second wave of the epidemic in Brazil. Methods: A convenience sample of adult (aged ≥18 years) residents of Manaus was recruited through online and university website advertising into the DETECTCoV-19 study cohort. The current analysis of seroconversion included a subgroup of DETECTCoV-19 participants who had at least two serum sample collections separated by at least 4 weeks between Aug 19 and Oct 2, 2020 (visit 1), and Oct 19 and Nov 27, 2020 (visit 2). Those who reported (or had no data on) having a COVID-19 diagnosis before visit 1, and who were positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibodies at visit 1 were excluded. Using an in-house ELISA, the reactivity index (RI; calculated as the optical density ratio of the sample to the negative control) for serum anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibodies was measured at both visits. We calculated the incidence of seroconversion (defined as RI values ≤1·5 at visit 1 and ≥1·5 at visit 2, and a ratio >2 between the visit 2 and visit 1 RI values) during the study period, as well as incidence rate ratios (IRRs) through cluster-corrected and adjusted Poisson regression models to analyse associations between seroconversion and variables related to sociodemographic characteristics, health access, comorbidities, COVID-19 exposure, protective behaviours, and symptoms. Findings: 2496 DETECTCoV-19 cohort participants returned for a follow-up visit between Oct 19 and Nov 27, 2020, of whom 204 reported having COVID-19 before the first visit and 24 had no data regarding previous disease status. 559 participants were seropositive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibodies at baseline. Of the remaining 1709 participants who were seronegative at baseline, 71 did not meet the criteria for seroconversion and were excluded from the analyses. Among the remaining 1638 participants who were seronegative at baseline, 214 showed seroconversion at visit 2. The seroconversion incidence was 13·06% (95% CI 11·52–14·79) overall and 6·78% (5·61–8·10) for symptomatic seroconversion, over a median follow-up period of 57 days (IQR 54–61). 48·1% of seroconversion events were estimated to be asymptomatic. The sample had higher proportions of affluent and higher-educated people than those reported for the Manaus city population. In the fully adjusted and corrected model, risk factors for seroconversion before visit 2 were having a COVID-19 case in the household (IRR 1·49 [95% CI 1·21–1·83]), not wearing a mask during contact with a person with COVID-19 (1·25 [1·09–1·45]), relaxation of physical distancing (1·31 [1·05–1·64]), and having flu-like symptoms (1·79 [1·23–2·59]) or a COVID-19 diagnosis (3·57 [2·27–5·63]) between the first and second visits, whereas working remotely was associated with lower incidence (0·74 [0·56–0·97]). Interpretation: An intense infection transmission period preceded the second wave of COVID-19 in Manaus. Several modifiable behaviours increased the risk of seroconversion, including non-compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions measures such as not wearing a mask during contact, relaxation of protective measures, and non-remote working. Increased testing in high-transmission areas is needed to provide timely information about ongoing transmission and aid appropriate implementation of transmission mitigation measures. Funding: Ministry of Education, Brazil; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas; Pan American Health Organization (PAHO)/WHO.World Health OrganizationRevisión por pare

Características agronômicas do capim "Brachiaria decumbens" submetido a intensidades e frequências de corte e adubação nitrogenada Agronomic characteristics of “Brachiaria decumbens” under intensities and frequencies of cut and fertilization

Objetivou-se avaliar as características agronômicas do Brachiaria decumbens Stapf. submetido a intensidades e frequências de corte e adubação nitrogenada, nas condições do Brejo paraibano. Foi utilizado delineamento em blocos casualizados em esquemas de parcelas subdivididas, tendo nas parcelas combinações entre duas alturas de corte (40 e 50cm) e duas alturas de resíduo (15 e 25cm), e nas subparcelas a adubação nitrogenada (com ou sem nitrogênio-N), com quatro repetições. As variáveis analisadas foram: produção de matéria verde e seca total e por corte; percentual de folhas, colmo e material morto na matéria seca; relação lâmina/colmo; taxas de acúmulo de folha, colmo, material morto e acúmulo líquido e de matéria seca total. A produção de matéria seca total apresentou diferença entre as intensidades de corte, sendo que na altura de corte 40cm e intensidade de corte com resíduo 25cm (40-25), com adubação, houve um incremento de 42% em relação à intensidade de corte 40-15. O percentual médio de folhas na MS foi maior para a altura de corte 50cm em relação à altura de corte de 40cm. A adubação aumentou em 84% a taxa de acúmulo líquido de matéria seca. Conclui-se que a adubação nitrogenada combinada com a altura de corte de 40cm e resíduo de 25cm eleva o percentual de folhas das plantas, aumenta a velocidade de crescimento e diminui o tempo entre intervalos de corte ou pastejo.The objective of this experiment was to evaluate agronomic characteristics of Brachiaria decumbens Stapf. under intensities and frequencies of cut and nitrogen fertilization, in Areia-PB. An completely randomized block design was used, with four replicates, in a split plot scheme, where in the plot was a combination of two heights of cut (40 e 50cm) and two stubble heights (15 e 25cm) and the splited plot (with or without nitrogen fertilization). The Variables total and by cutting fresh matter and dry matter production; leaf, steam and death of dry matter percentage; leaf/steam ratio; leaf, steam, death matter and net dry matter accumulation rates were evaluated. Total dry matter production presented differences observed among cutting intensities, and the 25/40 showed an increment of 42% in relation to 40-15 cutting intensity. Leaf percentage was higher in treatments with height of cut of 50cm in relation to treatments with 40cm height of cut. Fertilization increased net dry matter accumulation rate in 84%. Nitrogen fertilization increases productivity of Brachiaria and when combined with the height of residue 25 and 40cm cutting increases the growth rate and decreases the time intervals between cutting or grazing

Modeling of the Hydrological Processes in Caatinga and Pasture Areas in the Brazilian Semi-Arid

The semi-arid regions of northeastern Brazil have historically suffered from water shortage. In this context, monitoring and modeling the soil moisture’s dynamics with hydrological models in natural (Caatinga) and degraded (Pasture) regions is of fundamental importance to understand the dynamics of hydrological processes. Therefore, this work aims to evaluate the hydraulic parameters in Caatinga and Pasture areas using the Hydrus-1D inverse method. Thus, five soil hydraulic models present in Hydrus-1D were used, allowing the comparison of the single-porosity model with more complex models, which consider the dual porosity and the hysteresis of the porous medium. The hydraulic models showed better adjustments in the Caatinga area (RMSE = 0.01–0.02, R2 = 0.61–0.97) than in the Pasture area (RMSE = 0.01–0.03, R2 = 0.61–0.90). Regarding the hydraulic parameters, for all models, the Pasture showed smaller saturated hydraulic conductivity and water content values of the mobile region than the Caatinga. This fact demonstrates the negative impact of compaction and change in natural vegetation in the Brazilian semi-arid. The dual-porosity model presented the best fit to the data measured in the Pasture area. However, a single-porosity model could be considered representative of the Caatinga area. The results showed that Caatinga areas contribute to maintaining soil moisture and increasing the water storage in semi-arid regions

Modelling Soil Water Dynamics from Soil Hydraulic Parameters Estimated by an Alternative Method in a Tropical Experimental Basin

Knowledge about soil moisture dynamics and their relation with rainfall, evapotranspiration, and soil physical properties is fundamental for understanding the hydrological processes in a region. Given the difficulties of measurement and the scarcity of surface soil moisture data in some places such as Northeast Brazil, modelling has become a robust tool to overcome such limitations. This study investigated the dynamics of soil water content in two plots in the Gameleira Experimental River Basin, Northeast Brazil. For this, Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) probes and Hydrus-1D for modelling one-dimensional flow were used in two stages: with hydraulic parameters estimated with the Beerkan Estimation of Soil Transfer Parameters (BEST) method and optimized by inverse modelling. The results showed that the soil water content in the plots is strongly influenced by rainfall, with the greatest variability in the dry–wet–dry transition periods. The modelling results were considered satisfactory with the data estimated by the BEST method (Root Mean Square Errors, RMSE = 0.023 and 0.022 and coefficients of determination, R2 = 0.72 and 0.81) and after the optimization (RMSE = 0.012 and 0.020 and R2 = 0.83 and 0.72). The performance analysis of the simulations provided strong indications of the efficiency of parameters estimated by BEST to predict the soil moisture variability in the studied river basin without the need for calibration or complex numerical approaches

Water Dynamics in an Infiltration Trench in an Urban Centre in Brazil: Monitoring and Modelling

Infiltration trenches are compensatory techniques that consist of a reservoir filled with granular material. Their function is to store and infiltrate runoff water generated by rainfall. The objective of this work was to evaluate the hydraulic performance and model the water dynamics of an infiltration trench installed in the city of Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil. For each event, the response time of the infiltration system, the percentage of the infiltrated volume and the dynamics of water storage processes were analyzed as a function of rainfall events. The Puls method was used to model the events. The monitoring data demonstrated that the infiltration trench had a positive performance, infiltrating a large part of the drained volume, even with system overflows. The analyzed events presented an average emptying time of 6 days. The infiltration trench achieved its objective of decreasing the volume drained on the surface. The application of the Puls method in simulations of the monitored events showed satisfactory results in the statistical criteria coefficient of determination, deviation ratio and coefficient of residual mass, obtaining efficient adjustments, apart from a few exceptions. This study allowed us to prove the positive contribution of the trench to the water budget

Transport Behavior of RB5 Dye in Alluvial Soil in the Northeast of Brazil

International audienceThe textile industry generates a large volume of chemically diversified effluents containing, among other compounds, dyes. Untreated wastes are contaminants to surface water, soil, and groundwater. In this aspect, various studies have explored the issue of contamination of alluvial soils in the Alto Capibaribe region, northeast of Brazil, due to local textile activity. This region, inserted into the Brazilian semiarid region, suffers from water scarcity, and there is a need for rural communities to use alluvial formations for water supply. The simulation of solute transport is a fundamental tool for understanding the environmental performance and risks associated with contamination by textile dyes. Transport parameters that directly influence pollutant dynamics in sedimentary environments are characterized. This study evaluated the retention and mobility of the dye Remazol Black 5 (RB5) in two superficial layers of alluvial soil from Alto Capibaribe to obtain transport parameters. In the laboratory, tests of mobility in soil columns with RB5 dye (concentration of the 25 mg L−1) and KBr tracer (concentration of the 35.7 g L−1) solutions were conducted. The CDE and two-region models were used to model the KBr experimental transport data, and the two-site model was used to model the RB5 experimental transport data. Physical non-equilibrium was found in the soils for KBr transport, and the two-region model adequately modeled the experimental breakthrough curves (BTCs). For the transport of RB5, the results showed a chemical non-equilibrium, and the two-site model was adequate to model the experimental BTCs. The results indicate that the surface layer is most responsible for the retention of RB5, where the RB5 solution was less mobile than in the lower layer. Both layers showed low retention and high mobility for RB5, indicating that the RB5 dye in the region may contaminate groundwater

Effect of the choice of different methods on the permeable pavement hydraulic characterization and hydrological classification

International audienceAbstract The permeable pavement is a compensatory drainage technique for urban waters that aims to control runoff and to ensure ideal hydrological conditions. This work had as main objectives to evaluate the infiltration capacity of a permeable pavement (PP) at real scale, through analytical and numerical modeling. It relies on water infiltration experiments and related modeling for the hydrodynamic characterization of the coating layer (saturated hydraulic conductivity, K s , and sorptivity, S ). A large panel of analytical and numerical models was considered, and several estimates were obtained. Then, the criteria for the evaluation of the maintenance requirement of the permeable pavements were computed for all the K s -estimates considering the NCRS standards (assessment of permeability levels). The results indicated nice fits and accurate estimates for both the saturated hydraulic conductivity and the sorptivity. However, the K s -estimates depended on the considered model and led to contrasting results in terms of classification. For 8 of the 9 models, the value of the K s -estimate leads to the classification of “Group A” of the NCRS soil classification, meaning a very permeable material. In contrasts, the last method (numerical inverse modeling) classified the permeable pavement as “Group D”, i.e., soils with low permeability. Those results show the importance of the selection of characterization methods regarding the assessment of the hydrological classification of permeable pavements