Calibration of FRAX ® 3.1 to the Dutch population with data on the epidemiology of hip fractures

SummaryThe FRAX tool has been calibrated to the entire Dutch population, using nationwide (hip) fracture incidence rates and mortality statistics from the Netherlands. Data used for the Dutch model are described in this paper.IntroductionRisk communication and decision making about whether or not to treat with anti-osteoporotic drugs with the use of T-scores are often unclear for patients. The recently developed FRAX models use easily obtainable clinical risk factors to estimate an individual's 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture that is useful for risk communication and subsequent decision making in clinical practice. As of July 1, 2010, the tool has been calibrated to the total Dutch population. This paper describes the data used to develop the current Dutch FRAX model and illustrates its features compared to other countries.MethodsAge- and sex-stratified hip fracture incidence rates (LMR database) and mortality rates (Dutch national mortality statistics) for 2004 and 2005 were extracted from Dutch nationwide databases (patients aged 50+ years). For other major fractures, Dutch incidence rates were imputed, using Swedish ratios for hip to osteoporotic fracture (upper arm, wrist, hip, and clinically symptomatic vertebral) probabilities (age- and gender-stratified). The FRAX tool takes into account age, sex, body mass index (BMI), presence of clinical risk factors, and bone mineral density (BMD).ResultsFracture incidence rates increased with increasing age: for hip fracture, incidence rates were lowest among Dutch patients aged 50–54 years (per 10,000 inhabitants: 2.3 for men, 2.1 for women) and highest among the oldest subjects (95–99 years; 169 of 10,000 for men, 267 of 10,000 for women). Ten-year probability of hip or major osteoporotic fracture was increased in patients with a clinical risk factor, lower BMI, female gender, a higher age, and a decreased BMD T-score. Parental hip fracture accounted for the greatest increase in 10-year fracture probability.ConclusionThe Dutch FRAX tool is the first fracture prediction model that has been calibrated to the total Dutch population, using nationwide incidence rates for hip fracture and mortality rates. It is based on the original FRAX methodology, which has been externally validated in several independent cohorts. Despite some limitations, the strengths make the Dutch FRAX tool a good candidate for implementation into clinical practice

Recent trends in cutaneous malignant melanoma in the Yorkshire region of England; incidence, mortality and survival in relation to stage of disease, 1993–2003

The aim of this study was to investigate recent trends in incidence, mortality and survival in patients diagnosed with malignant melanoma (MM) in relation to stage (Breslow thickness). Cases of primary invasive and in situ MM diagnosed between 1st January 1993 and 31st December 2003 in the former Yorkshire Health Authority were identified from cancer registry data. Over the study period, the incidence of invasive MM increased from 5.4 to 9.7 per 100 000 in male subjects and from 7.5 to 13.1 per 100 000 in female subjects. Most of this increase was seen in thin tumours (<1.5 mm). Thin tumours were more likely to be diagnosed in the younger age groups and be classified as superficial spreading melanoma. In situ melanoma rates increased only slightly. Over the same time period, mortality rates have been relatively constant in both male and female subjects. Five-year relative survival varied from 91.8% (95% CI 90.4–93.1) for patients with thin tumours to 41.5% (95% CI 36.7–46.3) for those with thick tumours. In multivariable analyses, Breslow thickness was the most important prognostic factor. Age, sex and level of deprivation were also identified as independent prognostic factors. The trends in incidence suggest that the increase is real, rather than an artefact of increased scrutiny, implying that primary prevention in the Yorkshire area of the UK has failed to control trends in incidence. Mortality, in contrast, appears to be levelling off, indicating that secondary prevention has been more effective

Excited state intramolecular proton transfer in hydroxyanthraquinones: Toward predicting fading of organic red colorants in art.

Compositionally similar organic red colorants in the anthraquinone family, whose photodegradation can cause irreversible color and stability changes, have long been used in works of art. Different organic reds, and their multiple chromophores, suffer degradation disparately. Understanding the details of these molecules' degradation therefore provides a window into their behavior in works of art and may assist the development of improved conservation methods. According to one proposed model of photodegradation dynamics, intramolecular proton transfer provides a kinetically favored decay pathway in some photoexcited chromophores, preventing degradation-promoting electron transfer (ET). To further test this model, we measured excited state lifetimes of substituted gas-phase anthraquinones using high-level theory to explain the experimental results. The data show a general structural trend: Anthraquinones with 1,4-OH substitution are long-lived and prone to damaging ET, while excited state intramolecular proton transfers promote efficient quenching for hydroxyanthraquinones that lack this motif

An unusual variant of choledochal cyst: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Choledochal cyst is an uncommon congenital disease of the biliary tract in the UK. There are five main types of choledochal cyst with several recognised sub-types. However, occasional variants do occur.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report a case of a female infant with an antenatally diagnosed choledochal cyst. The operative cholangiogram revealed an unusual intrahepatic biliary tree. The cyst was successfully excised and the infant is well at 18-months follow up.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The anatomy should be clearly defined before surgical excision as abnormal variants can occur, which usually do not fit into the known classification types and subtypes.</p

Black Holes in Modified Gravity (MOG)

The field equations for Scalar-Tensor-Vector-Gravity (STVG) or modified gravity (MOG) have a static, spherically symmetric black hole solution determined by the mass $M$ with two horizons. The strength of the gravitational constant is $G=G_N(1+\alpha)$ where $\alpha$ is a parameter. A regular singularity-free MOG solution is derived using a nonlinear field dynamics for the repulsive gravitational field component and a reasonable physical energy-momentum tensor. The Kruskal-Szekeres completion of the MOG black hole solution is obtained. The Kerr-MOG black hole solution is determined by the mass $M$, the parameter $\alpha$ and the spin angular momentum $J=Ma$. The equations of motion and the stability condition of a test particle orbiting the MOG black hole are derived, and the radius of the black hole photosphere and the shadows cast by the Schwarzschild-MOG and Kerr-MOG black holes are calculated. A traversable wormhole solution is constructed with a throat stabilized by the repulsive component of the gravitational field.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures. Upgraded version of paper to match published version in European Physics Journal

Educational paper: Primary immunodeficiencies in children: a diagnostic challenge

Primary immunodeficiencies (PIDs) are characterized by an increased susceptibility to infections due to defects in one ore more components of the immune system. Although most PIDs are relatively rare, they are more frequent than generally acknowledged. Early diagnosis and treatment of PIDs save lives, prevent morbidity, and improve quality of life. This early diagnosis is the task of the pediatrician who encounters the child for the first time: he/she should suspect potential PID in time and perform the appropriate diagnostic tests. In this educational paper, the first in a series of five, we will describe the most common clinical presentations of PIDs and offer guidelines for the diagnostic process, as well as a brief overview of therapeutic possibilities and prognosis

Modelling diverse root density dynamics and deep nitrogen uptake — a simple approach

We present a 2-D model for simulation of root density and plant nitrogen (N) uptake for crops grown in agricultural systems, based on a modification of the root density equation originally proposed by Gerwitz and Page in J Appl Ecol 11:773–781, (1974). A root system form parameter was introduced to describe the distribution of root length vertically and horizontally in the soil profile. The form parameter can vary from 0 where root density is evenly distributed through the soil profile, to 8 where practically all roots are found near the surface. The root model has other components describing root features, such as specific root length and plant N uptake kinetics. The same approach is used to distribute root length horizontally, allowing simulation of root growth and plant N uptake in row crops. The rooting depth penetration rate and depth distribution of root density were found to be the most important parameters controlling crop N uptake from deeper soil layers. The validity of the root distribution model was tested with field data for white cabbage, red beet, and leek. The model was able to simulate very different root distributions, but it was not able to simulate increasing root density with depth as seen in the experimental results for white cabbage. The model was able to simulate N depletion in different soil layers in two field studies. One included vegetable crops with very different rooting depths and the other compared effects of spring wheat and winter wheat. In both experiments variation in spring soil N availability and depth distribution was varied by the use of cover crops. This shows the model sensitivity to the form parameter value and the ability of the model to reproduce N depletion in soil layers. This work shows that the relatively simple root model developed, driven by degree days and simulated crop growth, can be used to simulate crop soil N uptake and depletion appropriately in low N input crop production systems, with a requirement of few measured parameters